akikostas

akikostas Updated 

What will happen when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? -- Market Basics -- Commodities are like an "immovable object". They have no legs, they pay no dividends / yield rates. Unlike stocks, owning them doesn't give you the ability to "vote" for the growth of a company. When you buy them, you don't get a "souvenir" contract to hang on your...

akikostas

Classic price-based ribbons are commonly used. Their inversion signifies a bear market, while their normalization a bull one. They are unfortunately very laggy. In markets, it is trends that change first and then prices. Therefore, a trend-based ribbon can prove a highly responsive and clear way to visualize market cycles. This trend-based ribbon can be used as...

akikostas

Just another day at the office... Plotting the SPX median line shows something quite ordinary. No problem is apparent. All is well in the financial markets. Classic candle charts hide the truth, as I have many times explained. SPX now prints a bear 2M bar on the 3-line-break chart. This simply means that a bearish engulfing has taken place on a significantly...

akikostas

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. That is a famous quote, sometimes written under "inspirational photos" of influencers on social media. It is attributed to Albert Einstein, he however expressed something more rough than that. Einstein quoted: It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the...

akikostas Updated 

Have you missed me? I haven't been uploading lately. I've been busy serving my time. I am not at liberty to say whom I was serving. In that time I have realized many important aspects of how life and societies work. If you take a close look you will too realize... - The way we live is insanity. A constant rush to work with no end in sight. The money you manage...

akikostas Updated 

Price never gets faked out. Traders do. A blow-off top, a black swan, a trend break. All of these can easily become TRAPS-101. The winter is coming. Time to turn back your clocks. November 1994 November 2015 November 2023 No more words are necessary. No conclusions, no signatures.

akikostas Updated 

Traders have made the ultimate mistake, they were caught sleeping on the steering wheel. And after missing the trend, they attempt to enter it again, only to realize that they have trapped themselves. A question arises: Were they sleeping or are they performing a suicide attack? SPX is like a sharp kamikaze plane. Perhaps of Japanese origin, closing in to Perl...

akikostas Updated 

SPX has been breaking new records the past few months. But with inflation also breaking new records, it is not the time to relief. As you will soon realize, SPX is not out of the storm for now. Inflationary pressures have caused a caving in profits. After inflation has (temporarily?) calmed, the broad market has recovered significantly. Gold, Equities and...

akikostas Updated 

The weakest minion can terminate the Apple dominion. Apples, like all fruit, are born to serve two purposes. To spread the apple species and to feed birds, worms and humans. The life of the apple is interesting to watch. It began as a tiny seed in the fields of NASDAQ in 1980, weighing at $0.39 (or grams). Now the apple has grown to be almost 800 grams. That...

akikostas Updated 

Speculative bubbles excite traders and investors alike. NVDA is the absolute winner of the AI craze. Craze is the sentiment of the market cycle peak. After craze and euphoria, fear and denial will inevitably flood our minds. It is nothing more than the never-ending cycle of the economy. A simple line drawn on a chart spells the ultimate demise for...

akikostas Updated 

In a fortunate turn of events, inflation has calmed. For equity bulls, more good news. Yield rates have probably peaked. To stop inflation, you must cool down a HOT economy. Overconsumption tends to increase prices. In an unfortunate (?) turn of events however, the markets haven't calmed down. Some charts suggest that the markets haven't felt at all the...

akikostas Updated 

Markets are liquid. Liquids, by definition, move. Some of them have moved tremendously well. These liquids got so strong that they are now considered to be gasses. Unfortunately for them, gasses are not very dense. They are light and weak. Apple is the prime example of this important paradigm change. Until ~2005 Apple tried to strengthen and it magnificently...

akikostas Updated 

Crypto analysis is almost entirely based on models. Models that work, until they don't. 1st Law of Trading: Models and "laws" like the power law, stop working when everybody agrees on them. 2nd Law of Trading: The 1st Law is a paradox. 3rd Law of Trading: There are no laws. 4th Law of Trading: This statement is false. Aaaaand I broke AI. (Portal 2 would...

akikostas Updated 

Valentines day is usually a day of love. For TSLA, Valentines of 2024 was a story of hate. Markets go through cycles. They feel the absolute euphoria in the peak, and get suicidal in the bottom. When you tell them what they want, they treat you like a god. Some have certainly praised me. When you tell them what you objectively see, they despise you. Some have...

akikostas Updated 

There was the time, when one investor decided to invest in a single stock. That investor was one of the victims of The Great Depression. And they learned an important lesson, to split up their investment in multiple stocks to reduce risk. And so, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was born. MMT is an algorithm one can apply to reduce risk and improve profits. Mutual...

akikostas Updated 

Crypto is an experiment. A new way for illegal payments to be more accessible to the masses. Decentralization is a fancy way of saying that Bitcoin is digital black money. Black is the color banks are allergic to. Is Bitcoin strong enough to battle against Banks? To follow its paradigm, 23 thousand more coins have been opportunistically created. Each one of...

akikostas Updated 

Going against the norm. Modeling stock markets using non-normal distributions. That is the only way to take into account the massive volatility that markets can reach. arxiv.org Laplace Distributions manage to analyze prices better than normal ones. It is, as if, stock market is not normal, as in abnormal. As if it defies all physics. 2020 surely suggests that....

akikostas Updated 

Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles....