cursedcarter

cursedcarter

Just my thoughts on possible long term bear scenarios. This is not true analysis, this is my imagination running wild for a possible GFC of the decade.

cursedcarter

I would wait for bullish confirmation, a breakout from the downtrend would be our signal.

cursedcarter

This market will not continue much higher unless fed cuts interest rates.

cursedcarter Updated 

Looks like corporate yields say the bottom is in for the weekly chart. Corp yields are rolling over. Link to high yields is attached. Corp. profits are up which is good Housing market needs to be watched, could be what tips us. Real money supply is shrinking which is good since we printed so much money 2020

cursedcarter

Nothing confirmed but a possible bearish impulse scenario I could see playing out given geopolitical events, hawkish fed, housing/commodities inflation related, or a mixing pot.

cursedcarter

Some elliott wave analysis on the 500. Seeing a lot of investors talking about 8% + drop. Not so fast bears, we need a political event to send us tumbling into such a bear cave!

cursedcarter

Lots of news that would push oil commodities higher and just looking at this from a technical standpoint of volume, price action; it looks like the bottom is nearly here give it 1-2 months.

cursedcarter

SPY lags the high yield.. SPY to moon. More description in upcoming post.

cursedcarter

Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.

cursedcarter

GDX has been pretty beaten up over the past year and we are at record Index lows for GDX. 10Y Bonds have fallen which is great for Gold. I'm expecting our FED to slow down tightening policy headed into the New Year. Even if we do not see Gold run GDX can still climb due to such a historical low valuation on GDX.

cursedcarter

110? This fall I am also reading articles saying we are running out of our oil reserves which will decrease supply for higher demand coming. Russia is a wild card.

cursedcarter

Due to geopolitical and hawkish fed we will see SPY test $400 level, which i assume will be where big money goes long on SPY. After hawkish fed and rate hikes have been taken in by markets and economy we will see a much stronger economy and market ---> $SPY to ATH If SPY breaks then 370-380 is STRONG support.