darth.stocks

darth.stocks

Most traders take 2 much care about minutes and hours, but just forget to take a look at the big view....

darth.stocks

Target 1: 1132 . On break 1190 and on further break 1300 region.

darth.stocks

Equal weighted S&P 500 seems to be once more the leading indicator for further S&P500 direction. If H RS trend line is not taken out, we are moving to a SHS formation with an equal weight target of 2450. This corresponds to 1600-1650 on regular S&P 500. With Monday's continuation of last Friday after hours selling, the probability of a SHS formation is high.

darth.stocks

Last COT report suggests a less bearish behaviour within the next few weeks. A correction to 15.50 region seems to be reasonable. But sill bearish view on silver! Long with a target of 15.50. If a breakout appears (unlikely) a further correction till 18.70 might be possible. Continue with short to 12.00 if not...

darth.stocks Updated 

2 Days after FOMC Meeting mini futures of s&p 500 expire ( about 1.1 trill.USD) . Expect some wild movement... S&P 500 VIX futures expire on Dec. 16, so time to position accordingly....

darth.stocks

Correlation is certainly not causation, but it is striking that upward behaviour of SPX, DXY weighted SPY and JNK correlate with CNY depreciation. It is also striking that JNK and DXY weighted SPX correlate with appreciation of CNY. SPX not. Not yet? Waiting on the usual Sunday night PBOC announcement... Short SPX!

darth.stocks

The Gold price in XDR is quite a nice measure since it reflects the price development of Gold in the major world economies. Inclusion of Renminbi should not matter, since CNY was pegged to US$ and is now pegged to a currency basket containing all major XDR base currencies.... We reached the lower bottom of the trading range (since Jun 2013) and we should expect a...

darth.stocks

Todays movement is in the range of 20 % of the long term QQEx upward channel. Some bit of surprising... So, expect a fast movement to the lower range of the long term upward channel and decide with USDJPY direction if further shorting is reasonable or if one should expect a rebound towards upper channel of the long tern upward trend.

darth.stocks

nice company....

darth.stocks

Buy Signals generated. 20day MA crosses 50 day & 200 day. 50 day crosses 200 day. Nice little bull flag with a EURUSD Target in the 1.13 region.

darth.stocks

USD is some bit of: www.youtube.com . But going now back to reality....

darth.stocks

A trend change in the DXY weighted SPX indicates that SPX top was already reached. Similar to the 2000-2003 bear market this trend change appeared prior to regular SPX tops. Oct.2014 "Bullard-Correction" defined the trend change. SPX movements since than are only forex related.

darth.stocks

DXY weighted USDJPY exchange rate shows a breakdown of our favourit carry trade pair. A further appreciation of the USD without further monetary easing in Japan makes the system presented highly vulnerable...

darth.stocks

With Q3 physical Gold sales in the range of 1100 metric tons and mines production in the range of 800 metric tons with a falling USD price of Gold raised some significant discussions about the Gold price discovery being disconnected from the physical demand. In order to avoid any annoying conspiracy theory on this point and maybe proof that there WAS NO conspiracy...

darth.stocks

With USD and Gold still being the ultimate save heaven assets, it might be reasonable to take a view on the DXY weighted XAUUSD Price in comparison with the regular XAUUSD. In times of preparing for crisis/hedging for crisis/financial turmoil we see some divergence between these two charts. So, since Oct. 2014 we have this divergence again and the gap is this time...

darth.stocks

It is quite interesting to see that major gold price movements start around the same time when japanese QQE extension is announced and JPY weakened. Since October 2014 this correlation is broken. Extension of japanese QQE is currently unlikely and since Eishi "Mad Dog" Wakabayashi expects a significant strengthening of JPY we should expect XAUUSD getting back...