decklyndubs

decklyndubs

Wheat prices have been dropping but escalations in major exporters Ukraine+Russia I'm looking to start to have potential forces to the upside.

decklyndubs

Demark9 signal is firing sell signal -1W and rose up, this is the same cycle as the last sell off.

decklyndubs

Hang Seng sold off quite significantly (with oil) after PBOC's return from holiday gave a muddy picture on the funding schemes and degree of the stim package, making investors nervous and uncertainty. On friday, the market recovered 5% on the clarity of news items outlining different funding schemes. There is still some pessimism about the efficacy and ability of...

decklyndubs

Similar pattern seems to play out where we wedge up, break to the upside, and then (??). Market appears to be betting on a Republican win, we're coming into clearer focus on the election date, which brings uncertainty after apparently boosting most assets. Btc, gold, and Us equities are all very correlated on the Pearson 30d correlation chart. Nobody seems to...

decklyndubs

After Powell's speach the markets closed high but he indicates a metered approach. Noticed the bearish harmonic and retest. These are not what I view as strong/high alpha signals but they are there to trade intraday. My bias is neutral to bullish.

decklyndubs

FOMC is 17 days out. The market direction from here might hinge on how aggressive the fed is. A strong cut 50bps would probably signal to the market we'll boost assets. 25bps shows restraint in balancing the risk, which I think is more unemployment now, and would probably be the catalyst to make the markets a little more fearful. I'm not expecting much volatility...

decklyndubs

This looks like it may break the support level, which is a breakdown on a wedge on high tf. This is what it looks like before big dips, there is now a catalyst driving oil up. If nasdaq closes under this level, I expect a giant sell off so I'm ready here. If it holds, then the narrative might play that there is an asset rally as the dollar falls. Currently gold...

decklyndubs

Based on historic cycles, I've noticed that BTC is the first to show risk off sentiment in the market. This time may be different, but next week what I'm testing for is BTC to start to retreat towards 44k to show a broader weakness in the market. 2021/2022 BTC and crypto showed the market direction _before_ equity started to retreat on the rate hike cycle, so I'm...

decklyndubs

NVDA in a tradable spot here. As Nasdaq is right on the high TF trend line, I'm looking at the two markets side by side and ready to play a movement from this zone especially tomorrow after PCE. The markets are really breaking down down down, so I'd guess that tomorrow we'll see a structural breakdown. If PCE comes in good, I'm curious if it'll make much of a...

decklyndubs Updated 

BTC has dropped and re-entered a symmetric consolidation area. Next targets for me are 68k or 62500ish. When consolidation breaks, I expect either 73k or else 56500 areas to be tested. On fundamentals, german supply is done selling. Mt Gox and US Silkroad supply are still there so I would have been favouring the downside. Except republicans look like they'll...

decklyndubs Updated 

It's going into the weekend, so not huge confidence on this play yet, but I have some interest on BTC long from looking at the low TF PA and I think the 56500 fib will hold and BTC will look to retest towards 60500. We'll see what happens. If it breaks down, I'm looking towards 52500. Trade what you seen.

decklyndubs Updated 

I took the S&P short entry today, this looks good to me. There is an ascending wedge. The macro makes sense, with the markets repricing towards one cut. BTC sold off first, which usually happens. Equity could keep going with the government spending, but I'm seeing more calls on risk off.

decklyndubs Updated 

BTC is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle, and is tested an observed fib around 60550. If it breaks down, I'm eyeing 56k. If it can find support, 66k would be my target to the upside, but only if it's able to get over ~61500. It looks bearish to me, I'm trying to find a short to hold here, I don't think that this will hold based on the recent macro prints.

decklyndubs Updated 

Looks awesome, just check back. I don't think we'll see higher, but who knows! This looks like a great short.

decklyndubs Updated 

Nasdaq broke out of an ascending wedge to the upside beginning of june, and I'm seeing some signals that a correction might start as the markets are way out of whack with "main street." The data doesn't make any sense, even Jpow said that the employment data doesn't seem accurate. Whatever is happening, just talking to people show that the narratives in the data...

decklyndubs

Been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the next trade. No volatility, nothin' happening. No gains to be made. Waiting, waiting waiting. It's like a little kid inside me "can I trade now? can I trade now? can I trade now?" Rational mind has to say "not yet... Okay now!" Can see my two market top calls on the Dow - I removed a lot of em from other...

decklyndubs Updated 

Nice surprise today! I shorted at bell ring but not holding it. Closed after hours. For the swingers, you're dead already. For the noobs, you're wrong. For the intraday warriors, it doesn't matter, you'll make money no matter what. Competitive markets (BIG MARKETS) hunt liquidity. Breakouts from ascending channels retest. That means your ludicrous stop loss and...

decklyndubs

There are lots of different theories and perspectives and setups. Layers and layers and layers. My trading plan/theory for the next week/month is to try to find a nice blow-off rally into all time highs before the real selling starts. Most people are deer-in-the-headlights unaware that we are on the brink of what is going to be a historic financial crisis. There...