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Proposed technical/fundamental analysis for US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX. Bank unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held to maturity securities was $364 billion in Q3 2024; this number will continue to increase as long-term treasure rates increase (www.fdic.gov). US10Y yield chart looks for yield to go higher, north of 5%. If treasury rates continue to increase,...

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Technical analysis for XAUUSD. This Elliott Wave count has price in wave (iv) of primary wave V. Wave (ii) was a long regular flat, wave (iv) in this case would be a relatively short zigzag, with the c wave in progress. Would look for the c to end below 2400 but above 2075.135. I would expect wave (v) of V would be quite extended, terminating >4000.

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Technical analysis of the Nasdaq, comparing futures and NDX. Charts show essentially the same thing. Completed impulse waves, red median lines being tapped signaling tops.

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Technical analysis of US30. Cleaned Elliott Wave count off chart. Pitchfork drawn from major pivots over the last 5 years (March 2020 low to January 2022 high to October 2022 low. If price cannot tag the median line (red line) of the pitchfork, there is a high probability that price will return to the last pivot (green ellipse). At present, tagging the median...

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Technical analysis for US10Y, bearish count. Bearish reaction to interest rate cut. Looking for long-squeeze, banks in trouble (>$700 billion in unrealized losses) without bailout. Speculation at present, but could be catalyst for quick drop in equities to October 2022 lows.

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Technical analysis of ETHUSD. This count has price at or near completion of wave ((1)) of iii. Wave ((1)) has completed a five-wave structure. Wave ((2)) valid with price above 879.80. As price never tagged the median line (red-line) of pitchfork, this analysis suggests a deep wave ((2) towards 1000.

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Technical analysis of US500. This analysis has price in wave 4 of (5). Wave 4 would appear to be an Elliott Triangle Wave. If accurate, wave 5 of (5) would provide one more all-time-high to complete top (unless truncated). Price is very unlikely to tag median line of pitchfork (red line), a bearish side which suggests price should fall back to 5835.6 at a...

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Big picture technical analysis for BTCUSD. Price in log scale. EW count has price in wave 5 of (3), with top expected soon. Looking for wave (4) to be quick and head back towards 20k, no further than top of wave (1) at 19804.25.

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Big picture analysis for ES1! Proposed primary wave ((1)) terminating in March 2000, primary wave ((2)) terminating in March 2009 as a zigzag, and primary wave ((3)) terminating in January 2022. Proposed primary wave ((4)) seen as an expanded flat, with wave A terminating in October 2022 and wave B at or near termination now. Wave C would take price below...

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Bearish count for US500. This count has price in wave (5) of ((5)), to complete impulse off 5 August low. Again, not tagging median (red) line of pitchfork suggests bearish reversal. Count valid below price of 6197, as ((1)) > ((3)) > ((5)).

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Technical analysis of NAS100. Update on proposed ending diagonal. Price doesn't seem likely to tag either of the median (red) lines of pitchforks drawn, a bearish sign implying price will return to 20309.1 and eventually to 18297.4. Count is valid with price below 22100.4. If count is correct, would expect impulsive price action back towards 5 August low.

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Technical analysis for DXY. As long as 104.636 and 103.373 hold as support, bulls looking for move into the 112-114 area to complete wave ((3)) of C.

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Technical analysis of DJT (Dow Jones Transportation Average Index). Watching this ticker as a leading indicator of a market downturn. As SPX and NDX have made new ATHs this week, DJT is down 3.65%. Blow-off top happened in November 2021. It is hard to see price action since September 2022 as impulsive. Perhaps it will turn out impulsive after everything is all...

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Bearish count for US500. The key level/resistance in this count is 6197; it allows 1>3>5 and a complete impulse off 5 August low. Pitchfork shows bullish weakness, with price falling out of its structure. If count plays out, risk/reward improves for a short opportunity.

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Technical analysis for NAS100. Very neat how this wedge defines price since 5 August low. Besides the proposed wave (5) up, it has framed and (therefore) provided both support and resistance for price. The wedge will reach its apex soon, so one side or the other will have to prevail. Failure of price to tag median (red line) of pitchfork suggest return of price...

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Bullish count for NAS100. This count sees price action from 5 August 2024 low as a leading diagonal ((1)), rather than an ending diagonal ((5)). Wave ((2)) would be a zigzag, with c likely finishing between 19k-20k. In this scenario, wave v would likely top out near 30k.

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Bearish case for NAS100. From ATH of 21247.5, proposed impulse wave down (red ellipse) and corrective wave up (green ellipse). Price action in the context of proposed ending diagonal wave ((5)) (wedge) and failure of price to tag median line (red line) of pitchfork. Bottom of wedge has held as support for price in proposed wave (2) (red ellipse). If count is...

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Technical analysis of MSFT. Probably the cleanest EW count of any individual stock.