goodguy

goodguy

My previous guess at the course of the dollar was wrong with the long term down trend line and the 50% retraction not effecting price action. I have changed my perception of the formation that has formed. Now we are near the .618 retraction. From my EWT count (always subjective) we are at the 4th wave of lessor degree which supposedly is a good spot for a...

goodguy

FXE has now hit the A=C point. Looks like it could go a little lower to hit the lower channel line. Will be watching for signs of reversal this week. Important to me as FXE moves inversely to the US dollar index which often moves inversely to the precious metals and the mining stocks.

goodguy

We will know soon if this perception of the wave is correct. Have a great day and weekend. Goodguy.

goodguy

Folks on this site seem to know a lot more about currencies than I do. But here is how the euro looks to me. In EWT (which I recommend you NEVER use by itself) one form of consolidation in a correction is A,B,C with the B wave a 5 wave triangle a,b,c,d,e. I think that is what we likely have here. Often the C wave is some Fib relationship to A such as C=A, C=.62X...

goodguy

Yesterday I thought maybe the approximately 50% longer term correction in the US Dollar might be over. But after today it is obvious that was wishful thinking. So here is my EWT view of the last day. The longer term 50% correction mark is actually 97.27 which has not yet been hit so there is still a chance my original view is correct. We should know in the next...

goodguy

This is how I currently see the GDX. Like the chart I posted on gold I see the GDX likely in a long term triangle. At any rate it looks to me like it has recently finished a well defined channel down with a large volume spike at the bottom. Of course it could go down one more time to retouch the lower channel line but I favor it has begin a upward A-B-C perhaps to...

goodguy

We have just completed what may be a final triangle which has resulted in a thrust up the last few days. The thrust finished with a bearish flag. This still fits with the longer term chart I previously posted. We have to see if the current top from the last couple of days is taken out or (e) (approx) 94 is taken out to see if the correction is over. If...

goodguy

I like the RSI as an indicator. I was looking at the chart of the SPY and as I have often observed, major drops often occur with a bearish divergence in the RSI and the RSI weekly failing to reach 70 before turning down. Notice this pattern in 2000 and 2007 in the SPY. We have that same situation now. Of course prices could keep going up and overcome this. But...

goodguy

Obviously still going up. But would not be a bad place for a reversal.

goodguy

Personally I think both gold and silver may well be what in EWT jargon is a 4th wave consolidation or triangle. It is too early to be sure but when I see a positive reversal followed by a bullish divergence I think there is a very good chance of a significant rise ahead. Note that C =1.6 x A which is a common finding in corrections. The fairly long down trend...

goodguy

I first got interested in charting in 1982. I was young then and the market had been going sideways for 14 yrs or so. And I remember in 1982 there was a tremendous excitement then (there were no computers or internet) that some bullish breakout had happened. Somehow the technicians then knew something in the market had changed. For the positive. Reagan had...

goodguy

Of course no one really knows the answer to that but this chart leads me to believe it is a definite possibility. We have two very long term support-resistance lines and a third form 1998 that come together now. I counted out my view of EWTs 5 waves up. The 444 and the 44 waves are triangle consolidations as often occurs. Then I was surprised to see that the...

goodguy

The US Dollar index has been charging upward recently. But you can see from this long term log chart it is at an important down trend line. It is also very close to a 50% retraction on the last major wave down from 2001 to 2009. Plus the RSI is overbought and has a potential bear divergence (this would likely not be true if it keeps charging up). I don't know...

goodguy

I still think there is a good chance the US dollar has been forming a long term 5 wave triangle (ABCDE) before one last major drop. Although the RSI has gone to a new high, the price high at C has not yet been bettered leading to a potential negative reversal. This pattern indicated that price is weaker than the indicator and often leads to new lows. We also have...

goodguy

I see US Dollar as completing a long term triangle and favor there will be one more leg down to a new low. Notice we have a negative reversal in the RSI followed by a bearish divergence which often leads to a reversal as it did in 2005 (at A). IF C is exceeded then this idea is wrong. Take care. Happy Thanksgiving.

goodguy

Often the B wave of a ABC corrective pattern will be a five wave triangle (abcde) as we see here. The C wave is often an fast moving wave as we see here as well. IF the ABC is forming a corrective channel ie large flag then oil.s correction may be complete. Interestingly the US dollar index looks like it also likely is just finishing a similar upward correction...