gorgevorgian

gorgevorgian

My short-term profit-generating system is giving a strong signal that the US 10Y yield is about to drop below the 4% level. The US Treasury market is regaining its safe haven status.

gorgevorgian

Tesla is overvalued, especially when compared to traditional metrics like P/E ratio. We have P/E 190 atm. If we compare Tesla to other EV companies, Tesla’s valuation might appear inflated. For example, companies like Rivian, Lucid, and NIO have been hyped similarly, but most haven’t shown the same level of growth and revenue. Investors are betting on Tesla’s...

gorgevorgian

As we predicted in previous analyses, Trump's populism knows no bounds, which is why over the next four years we will continue to witness numerous statements, threats, promises, and their softening when it comes to implementation. This was Trump 1.0, and this is what Trump 2.0 will be like over the next four years. He is afraid of a stock market crash, he fears...

gorgevorgian

Berkshire is one of the smart companies that has been actively selling overvalued stocks and investing in more promising sectors lately. Political changes could also positively impact the company, as potential tariffs from Trump would benefit Buffett's furniture industry. It’s no secret that the U.S. imports massive amounts of furniture. Another part of the...

gorgevorgian

GBPUSD Quarterly Forecast by Global banks, seems they're bullish Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 2025 Forecast - 1.24 / 1.25 / 1.26 / 1.28 Forward - 1.23 / 1.23 / 1.23 / 1.23

gorgevorgian

Again me and again my TLT))) First of all we should keep safety and creditworthiness U.S. Treasuries are backed by the U.S. government, making them one of the safest investments globally. They are considered risk-free in terms of credit risk, as the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. The second one and the most important point - we have ATTRACTIVE...

gorgevorgian

The US economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, capping a surprisingly strong year and supporting the case for a pause in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose...

gorgevorgian

So what is Arch Capital - its not an investment bank or fund or something else - lets say insurance company. Why its so attractive for me right now: Some financial highlights Robust Profit Growth: In Q3 2024, Arch Capital reported a net income of $978 million ($2.56 per share), up from $713 million ($1.88 per share) in Q3 2023, marking a 37% increase....

gorgevorgian

Goldman Sachs Is Bullish on China’s Stimulus I have selected BABA and want to consider buy the deep strategy and here is why. Alibaba’s stock has occasionally been undervalued compared to its peers, offering opportunities for investors seeking growth at a reasonable price. P/E = 11.6, which is one of my favorites ratios, when Amazons P/E higher 45...

gorgevorgian

Buying the BND ETF (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) can be a smart move for several reasons, especially for those looking to diversify their portfolio, generate income, or manage risk. Here are some compelling reasons why you might consider buying BND: 1. Diversification Broad Exposure to the Bond Market: BND gives you access to a wide variety of U.S....

gorgevorgian

I’m still supporting 20+ bonds, and this time I’ve chosen the technical approach. I’m not entirely sure if I’ve made the correct calculations using the XABCD pattern, but the picture seems accurate. When the market has concerns about tax reductions, strict measures against migrants, sanctions, etc., and how all of this will affect prices and, specifically,...

gorgevorgian

We have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%. What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts. Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red? First and foremost—the most important...

gorgevorgian

Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite. Trump Trade? - Hardly. So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next? Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S....

gorgevorgian

Before diving into macroeconomic complex indicators, let's briefly touch on price action. First, let's assume that Trump's trade, as such, didn’t happen. It's just a regular market move with some added clarity. Second, ahead of us is Christmas Eve, which should have already started, but instead, we have a "skeptical" rise, ready to explode at any moment right...

gorgevorgian

The US Treasury 2-year and 10-year spread never lies. Of course, this is based on historical data, as whenever the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds turns positive from a negative value, it is typically followed by stagnation in the bond market. However, alongside this, we cannot ignore several important factors: 1. "Trump's trade", as such, did not...

gorgevorgian

A great divergence opportunity for SPY or SPX, just a technicals looking forward

gorgevorgian

I am still holding the TLT long, not because I have a large position, but rather because I am constantly trying to objectively analyze and share with you. Let’s explore the US Treasury Actives Yield Curve today: Of course, when the rate was 5.5%, it was much more inverted. Today, we already have a significant divergence between the money market and bonds. From...

gorgevorgian

Forecast / Forward Q4/24 1.09/1.08 Q1/25 1.10/1.09 Q2/25 1.11/1.09 Q3/25 1.12/1.10 2025 1.12/1.10 2026 1.14/1.13 2027 1.15/1.14 2028 1.15/1.16