lowstrife

lowstrife Updated 

Similar to my linked Silver market structure, Oil is looking similar as well. We hit 2008 lows, but if we were to bottom here in the long term it won't be without much messing around and quite the contention and battleground. If this support fails, I can see the ultimate low being as low as $24 before we move back into a markup period going into the 2020's....

lowstrife

This indicator measures bollingerband width to compare how tight the market has compressed at different times in history. These compression indicate massive accumulation of positions and once the market is decided they will trend for weeks or months. This price chart is the all-time LTCUSD price chart, before there was even a LTCUSD market (the LTCBTC pair goes...

lowstrife Updated 

So... I'm leaning bullish but we are in a pretty tight range bound consolidation here. If support at the 200D EMA holds, then the additional support at the 262-268 range will fomo the ask side and push us up likely to OTE in the 295/300 range. 12H Willy is at stupid levels, which does not indicate a bottom because it can keep "trending" at the bottom if the...

lowstrife Updated 

Ignoring elliot wave counts indicators and simply going to comparing pictures and seeing if they match up, I've decided to create another chart showing the comparisons between the bubble blow-off periods we have been experiencing for the last 12 months to the one we experienced several years ago. At the end of the day we would, if we were to mirror this range,...

lowstrife Updated 

Neutral case on this one; Not really sure where it will go. Targets are approaching OTE on the upside but honestly, after the pump and dump they rarely ever recover past even the 38.2%. I think that is less likely than a slow bleed down, even if BTC rallies. If a rally to 0.017 happens and holds the support trendline, a breakout has the potential to return to...

lowstrife Updated 

I'm expecting another push in the coming weeks if we stabilize 330-350. The MA51 has been our guiding force for the last year and we touched it yet again on this last push up. And, surprisingly, we are guided yet again by a strong bearish trendline that looks ripe for the picking. Sub $300 prices seem unlikely with the gusto that the Bearwhale wall was bought...

lowstrife

No Historical Analysis, just a simple trade setup. A few reasons behind it: Macd is about to cross up Very simple but elegant RSI trendline can be broken if we close the daily in a favorable position Willy is stupid, which is a very difficult thing to do without a major market crash (see $275) Bollinger bands are tight on every timeframe under 12hr. ...

lowstrife

On the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here: www.reddit.com And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly...

lowstrife

This one is dicey. High timeframe Indicators and Oscillators are useless from the consolidation range until we start printing bigger candles in a few weeks so I am sticking to pure Fibonacci levels and horizontal support\resistance levels. Due to our buildup, expect a big move out of this one. 12hr\daily Bollinger Band supersqueezes are nothing to bat an eye at....

lowstrife

Re-post with both charts this time. The comparison between the ill-fated Paypal pump that became completely unsubstantiated and our Microsoft announcement. The latter was slightly smaller (9% gain vs 13%), but so far it has been showing a far higher resilience. Will be interesting to see how this one consolidates and how support builds. No position as this...

lowstrife

I've been keeping an eye on the markets since we have had these decades of volatility since the dot.com bubble, and I have never seen compression of indicators (especially the Willy!) like the DOW is showing. While I'm not ruling out we could see continued pushes higher as people have been forecasting these market tops for a year+, I am starting to see resistance...

lowstrife

Will the 51MA and bearish trendline provide enough resistance to keep us below the 61.8% retracement to re-test the bullish trend? Or will the Green untested channel provide enough strength to carry onward to the next target. If $660 (683) breaks, expect $900's. If $550 (540) breaks, expect $400's.

lowstrife

So with my success with Bitcoin bubble analysis, I decided to move onto other markets thanks to a very comprehensive discussion on gold by DanV in his most recent video. I simply did the same thing I have done for my Bitcoin price comparisons, with the main reasonings for what I've done laid out in the text box. Basically, this prediction relies on the fact that...

lowstrife

Several weeks ago, I posted () a unique comparison of Bitcoin bubbles and how even though the sizes are so much different, they follow the same pattern for the aftershocks and the retracements. As I'm sure everyone has noticed, we are on the verge of another bubble now, and I personally think that the breaking of this $680 level (and accompanying 38.2%) will be...

lowstrife

So with some charts I made a few days ago, I had a realization that the Megabubble in 2011 we saw was actually part of a longer cycle that is A) identical to every bubble that came after and B) difficult to see because of it's scale. As far as I have seen, nobody else has ever charted the Megabubble and the subsequent "mini-bubbles" that occurred after in this...

lowstrife

So unless anyone hasn't noticed, Bitcoin broke out of a massive bear triangle at $450 two weeks ago and sparked this gigantic rally that we are all enjoying today (unless you sold at the bottom). However, Litecoin has yet to breakout of it's own bear trend, and historically, it is always late to do so. So I spent some time charting this today and discovered that...

lowstrife

We have continued mostly through the recovery of this phase of Bitcoin, and we are now entering the sideways consolidation and launchpad for the next bubble to go exponential. This is all moving along with my theory that, as Bitcoin grows, the "bubble pattern" everyone has subscribed to will be broken. As we grow and market liquidity and market cap grow, the...

lowstrife

1) The peak of the most recent bull trap to the bottom of the crash and the lowest point of the whole period. 2) The recovery after the crash, which both times only takes 6 days, and the first signal for bullish markets to return. 3) The pullback from the recovery. 4) The Silk Road crash and a retracement we might have to do in the future. However, that was a...