matthias

matthias Updated 

After the miss in August () I am taking another run at NYCB. I think at 1.2x TBV, a forward P/E of 7 with growing earnings and a 7% dividend yield this is an attractive proposition. I think a good first target is around 10.70 - 10.78 where the 38.2% retracement of the drop since August and the upper edge of the volume control band are. A SL would be reached for...

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I think there's a good chance that NASDAQ:SOFI 's is finally finished. The next few days it will be worth watching this stock. If SOFI manages to close above the downward channel this week and it doesn't get instantly sold on Monday I could see it have some explosive upside. Otherwise, we may be in for another test of the lows. I have a long position in the...

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Today NYSE:DFS pierced the bottom of the gap that was created on October 19, when the stock sold off following earnings. The market's attitude this week has been that "bad is good". GDP forecasts are coming down, retailers are warning about consumers lowering their spending level, NASDAQ:AAPL gave a muted earnings release. All this meant that the Fed left...

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AMEX:IWM (Russell 2000 small-cap ETF) reached an all-time low in its relative performance vs. the NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq large-cap ETF) last month. Today, however, AMEX:IWM has more than 2% of relative out-performance vs. $QQQ. And it had more than 2.5% of relative out-performance yesterday. To give a sense of how rare this is: In the last 21 years (since the...

matthias

I am buying some NYSE:NLY , even though the stock is very overbought in the short term (see Money Flow Indicator at bottom of chart). I like the breakout through the dotted line connecting the highs from Oct 10 and Nov 17. After breaking through this morning the stock pulled back underneath the dotted line, but has now recaptured the high. I believe that the...

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I don't really have much technical analysis support for this trade. This one is basically all fundamental: GS just reported earnings, and they took a bunch of charges, which made 3Q2023 a lot worse than 3Q2022. They did, however, still beat estimates. It looks to me like GS is finally getting out of a lot of the headwinds they had over the past couple of years: ...

matthias Updated 

Opportunity to go long KTOS on the breakout from the symmetrical triangle. First PT 19.01, which is one penny below the YTD high of 19.02. Second PT of 19.48 would take the stock to a new 2023 high. SL at 18.21.

matthias Updated 

This is not a trade. I'm just flagging the fact that there's a symmetric triangle in play for WIRE. I've been long the stock for well over a year because I like its fundamentals. Given these fundamentals I'd be surprised to see this triangle to break to the downside, but until it breaks in either direction there's no setup to go long or short. This might just be...

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I think the AAPL "Wonderlust" show today was a disappointment to all who were hoping for an exciting new product to get announced. While the presenters did their best to hype all the "firsts" and "bests", it feels like nobody much cares anymore whether they have the latest and greatest phone. No matter what phone most of us have, it's probably capable enough,...

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RWT is at the high of the day and about to break into the gap that was created when the stock dropped following the last ex-dividend date in September. As always, this can go different ways: Maybe it keeps marching up to close the gap, maybe it drops back down into the declining regression channel that goes back to the high from the beginning of September. Maybe...

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I am becoming bullish on energy stocks, in particular CVX. First my technical rationale: CVX has consilidated over the past 3+ months in an unusually tight range. On Friday, the stock ended exactly on the POC for the trailing 3 months. Despite a number of headwinds (see below) CVX remains in the context of an uptrend. CVX and XLE (the ETF it is most closely...

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AMEX:UNG 's hourly chart shows both a double top and a double bottom pattern. Neither of them has reached their price target, yet. There's also both a rising (intermediate term) and a falling (short-term) trend channel visible. On the face of it, the bearish patterns seem to have a bit more credibility: Double tops have a higher win rate and a higher profit...

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O put in a double bottom today. This is usually a highly reliable bullish pattern, but O is in a very steep downtrend on longer timeframes, so this might be an exception. Instead of trading the short-term pattern, I hope that it asserts itself, leading to a better entry for a short position. If O were to reach T2 at 54.93, it could be expected to close the...

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It looks to me like TSLA will fail to break through both the VWAP since the July high an the top of the declining short-term trading channel. I expect a decline down towards the bottom of the rising intermediate-term trading channel. Fundamentally, I think that the weakness in Chinese Yuan and the Chinese economy, as well as the price cuts, increasing EV...

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I am looking for a short entry to LVMUY based on the double top pattern. Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy (LVMH) presents with two conflicting chart patterns, which are drawn using @LonesomeTheBlue's excellent HPP indicator at the default settings. Based on the statistics provided by that same indicator the Anti-Gartley is the slightly more compelling one with an 80%...

matthias Updated 

I expect NYCB to hold its rising intermediate trading channel, and to challenge and break its declining short-term trading channel. I expect this to resolve in the coming week, and if it indeed resolves as I anticipate, I intend to initiate a long position. My interpretation of US equities markets is that, following a euphoric July, market participants got...

matthias

It looks like WTI crude oil futures will close up today. That will be the ninth consecutive day that they are rising. In the last 23 years that has happened on only 8 previous occasions. In all but one of these 8 times, crude oil snapped the winning streak the following day. The mean return for all 8 occasions is -0.9%. I am going short USO as a short-term...

matthias Updated 

I was looking for some short exposure for next week, and landed on JPM on my target. My rationale: I expect that some of the pre-holiday cheer will turn to hangover by next week. JPM is at the upper edge of its declining 1-month trading channel There's a highly predictive broken triangle pattern DXY is zooming today, without anyone paying much attention,...