mjhillpp

mjhillpp

.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend. IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season. I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential. Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.

mjhillpp

Technically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik. Targets: 1. Middle bollinger Band 2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline 3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA...

mjhillpp

Broke out of uptrend with high volume. CFTC showed specs were long, so there is plenty of room to the downside. Spreads have been weak and option volatility was low before breakout. As it broke to the downside, longs scrambled to protect with an downside puts and panic left option vol to increase by over 6 points. On the downside, i am looking into the...

mjhillpp

After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue). I am looking for some support coming in here. As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...

mjhillpp

Crude is hitting some support as it come close to the (blue) up-sloping trendline at around 43. Additionally the 200 day MA is right around that area. We are oversold in terms of Bollinger, RSI and Stochastik, with the Stochastik generating a buy signal Should the market break, targets on the downside at 39, 35 and contract low at 26ish.... Option idea: IMHO...

mjhillpp

Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel. Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are...

mjhillpp Updated 

Crude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction...

mjhillpp

Market has been narrowing awaiting the OPEC meeting. Trading volume has declined going into tighter trading ranges (red triangle). This is a great example for a symmetric triangle. Breakout direction to be determined. Also, the greater picture shows a slowing uptrend leading into a very long term triangle. Patience is required. My bias would be leading to the...

mjhillpp

Looking to test 200 day MA and upsloping trend line in blue for the shorter term. Overall the market is still in a buy territory, but a test of the 200 day MA might be likely. Weather concerns for the upcoming fall and winter are not an issue yet. Physical demand as my sources tell me has been more than subdued over the sommer after the end user buying...

mjhillpp

Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO. short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....

mjhillpp

Expecting slowdown of recent rally after breaking out of the downtrend channel two weeks ago. RSI, Stochastik are overbought and Bollinger Bands indicate a slowdown in the recent move. Also, middle to end of August is a seasonal which was confirmed now. Options to work IMHO: sell call spreads

mjhillpp

Downtrend has established after topping at 50. The 200 day MA (yellow) provided some support for now, but on the upside the 7 day MA (red) acts as resistance in this downtrend channel. I am looking for another test of the lows at 39. Further support comes in at 36 then 33. Option idea to consider IMHO: as we near upper trend line: --> sell call spreads and...

mjhillpp

Looking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices. Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet Spreads are weak as well.

mjhillpp

Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in...

mjhillpp

Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell...

mjhillpp

As we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands. So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50. Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls). At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how...

mjhillpp

Gold bounced off of the support area for now Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend --> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies. Resistance at: - 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish) - 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240 Overall: the...

mjhillpp

Pro Long: - Trend line provided massive support (dark red line) - High volume at support and during the rally - future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation) - If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal Contra Long: - running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA) I sold the 2900 puts last week as a...