smitheric1970

smitheric1970 Updated 

I want to say first that this is a risky entry; with oversupply and OPEC possibly disagreeing on continuing/extending/deepening cuts at next week's meeting Monday, we could see prices tumble into the 40.3-41.4 level; however, I think we may be in for some mid term boring 45-48 sideways price action for a while before any larger movements and that prices will take...

smitheric1970 Updated 

In a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the...

smitheric1970 Updated 

I apologize for the messy chart; I'd prefer to publish a cleaner view but have a busy weekend so you'll get a glimpse inside my crazy charting mind with all of my notes... So, just zoom in to the TP area of the charity you're not interested in the rest! A couple of weeks ago I'd anticipated prices staying contained in the 45.6-50.4 daily trading range but last...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Oil has seen a weekly/daily range in place in 2008 and again created in 2015 that has repeated; between the now continued oversupply vs geopolitics; I believe we may see oil rangebound in this 45.62-50.37 zone; Entry Buy/Long: 45.62-46 SL: 44.8 TP1: 46.81 TP2: 48.00 TP3: 49.18 TP4 50.07 As per the norm, I will be taking partial profits at each Target Price...

smitheric1970 Updated 

I wanted to provide a dynamic support chart for my 'Oil - Further Breakdown Chart' as I am still looking for target level 3 on that chart at 45.99; and for new possible short entries. May 2 created a new daily price inflection at 48.08; that level and the most recent Demand Line have been crossed and closed below on the daily timeframe. I am now looking at...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Oil has been on a rampage the past 6 weeks. I believe that we will see oil prices continue to consolidate in the 2015 weekly range of 44.8-54. Due to a significant volume drop below the 50.49 July 21, 2016 breakdown bar, I believe it will hold as resistance and repeat that July drop circled in yellow, reaching deeper for the 45.99 daily demand level. I will...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Fear seems to be in the air the past couple of weeks and gold has been responding; I believe this will be short lived and I am looking at the Oct/Nov 2016 Supply/Demand exchange level for a potential reversal. If prices find resistance at the 1238-1258 zone then I'll expect prices to retest the 1185 support level in the coming weeks and with a continuing strong...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Note: With rollover in the coming days, this is an M/June chart: Oil has seen quite the run over the past 2 weeks on report draws, Lybia fundamentals and geopolitical tensions with Syria - and with North Koreas news in the mix the Keynesian correlations are heating up. With a supply level being created at the previous Demand level 53.79/53.80 on the M/June...

smitheric1970 Updated 

In my 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?" chart, Prices reach their first Target Price but have rallied back to the original Supply level where I expect the selling to again occur. That analysis was on a continuous chart and the entry and bottom target is lined up with this K (May) chart view. With the DX relatively flat this price drop would require a couple weeks of...

smitheric1970 Updated 

This is purely a technical view as I am not familiar with wheat fundamentals (Ag fundamentalists please chime in I would love for this to be a learning experience for me); This is however my view of a potential technical validation of the Demand Exchange at 4.07 based on my general view of commodities/dx/oil over the next couple of months as I see a potential pop...

smitheric1970 Updated 

My 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?' chart is active and still waiting on prices to reach its second target price but for those of you looking for a new entry or to add positions; I have closed out my front month J short contracts and will open/sell short K (May) futures contracts on Sunday/Monday; Prices are currently sandwiched between 2 daily demand exchanges and I am...

smitheric1970 Updated 

i have been looking for oil prices in the short term to bottom at the 45.6-46.1 level; This chart is meant to provide Target Prices for my 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...' chart; please refer to that chart for more information on my overall view as this chart is intended only as a support chart for price targets. I will buy/open long positions at 46.10 and...

smitheric1970 Updated 

It can be very daunting entering either long or short after such a massive drop; I have a downside target chart published already 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke'; however created this chart for new short entries in the even that we see a bit of a retrace. Today was quite the rate meltdown in oil; it seems that the pre-fomc game of chicken is over. Both Long...

smitheric1970 Updated 

This is a my potential 8 week view of oil volatility. For a shorter term intra-week short entry, please see my 'Oil Supply - Continuous Chart', which provides a more detailed view of this charts short entry. I have been (im)patiently waiting for a breakdown in oil prices and to see a higher weekly low created prior to prices rallying again. I believe this low...

smitheric1970 Updated 

With a solid break below 53.30 on the April chart (see Oil - April Chart) I have an entry level for short positions here on the continuous chart. Following an increase in rate hike sentiment last week, oil not only broke down below the fast upthrust on Wednesday, it followed up by break hard below the upper supply level (53.51-53.89); I am now looking at 53.51 as...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Prices traded in a tight range last week but have found strong resistance at the 54.6 level. So far the daily demand line has seen 3 bounces and will likely be tested again by Wednesday. Although prices rallied on the unexpected neutral reports last week I doubt we will see another week of the same; as well, the DX seems to have found some temporary footing and I...

smitheric1970

This chart is for observation purposes only. Currently prices are in an extended range and behavior is very similar to the May-July 2015 range and my hunch is distribution. I am only comparing the Preliminary and Secondary supply levels and lowest demand level. This is ONLY a technical comparison for observing price behavior. I mark supply/demand levels on...

smitheric1970 Updated 

Oil has been sideways for 10 weeks but as the 200 MA is aligning with the next base level down at 48.5 level and as the soon to be front month April chart has been a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily, I anticipate we will see a 20 day down cycle 2/10-3/10. Target prices and details on the chart; I will be closing all shorts at TP 2, expecting a...