stockmarketupdate

stockmarketupdate

$SPX and all other US features are down after trade deal optimism systematically got unwound by the hour, if not minute, moments ago the Global Times' Business Source group said that that China will release an "unreliable entity list" soon, which includes relevant US entities. SPX future was down at mid-day and it went further down after Being threats...

stockmarketupdate

Wall Street manufacturing a spectacular crash (e.g ignoring everything, volatility, correction, macro, earning, etc) to get Pre and Post QE. Unlike GFC, WS think they won't lose money when crash happens. The macroeconomics evidence on global slowdown in China, Europe, India is so overwhelming. Add to that dismal retune and earnings drop year on year that...

stockmarketupdate

-Market momentum driven by inaccurate hopes of a phase 1 trade deal, and the Fed’s $60 bilion per month QE had created the biggest asset bubble in the history of stock market. -Trade risks are too complacently priced, which is bad news for earnings -Rates Curve steepening doesn’t mean Bonds recession warning has vanished. -The FED QEs essentially had a...

stockmarketupdate

After Dotcom bubble, Greenspan lowered Fed fund rate, wall street discovered if they package bad and good loans that can make lots of money and they did. In 2008 GFC happened, SPX went down 50%. Fed Bernake came to rescue and bailed out all Wall street firms with an exception of Lehman Brothers to server as a lesson. Bernake QE lasted four years and in return he...

stockmarketupdate

According to a report from the FT JPMorgan pushed more than $130bn of excess cash away from reserves in the process significantly tightening overall liquidity in the interbank market, the bulk of this money was allocated to long-dated bonds while cutting the amount of loans it holds, in what the FT dubbed was a "major shift in how the largest US bank by assets...

stockmarketupdate

No one knows when, it can be next week, next month or next year. Given the limited upside and huge downside risk, do you feel safe holding SPX or any US stocks overnight.

stockmarketupdate

SPX gain since Jan 2018 has been dismal 6%. In fact end of August 2019 SPX had the same value as Jan 2018. One can argue the latest rally is a bull rage out of frustration. Consensus business view is so low that it underestimated 173.3 by over 80 points. Stocks jump but shows gloomy exception in retails and other non essential spendings. While the S&P 500...

stockmarketupdate

I posted this again with some change to the script to show big daily changes around +-2%. Can you see the resemblance between 2018 and 2019? Count the number of sell off and notice, an increase in the sell off in 2019 and a build up for repeating Dec 2018. Since Jan 2018, S&P500 gone up 5.5% for over two years because of all sell-offs. This means 2.5%...

stockmarketupdate

I wrote a script to block all small movements of SPX less than +2% and -2 % to magnify big historical changes. Then this chart appeared showing striking resemblance between 2018 Oct-Dec and 2019. So one conclusion is that market MAY go down in Nov or Dec. Informed investors know market is weak, overvalued etc. Insiders benefit from timely large bets to up or...

stockmarketupdate Updated 

1/ Repo Signals depression -Hedge funds, pension funds and corporate go to repo to borrow CASH in exchange for their collateral junk debts of CCC and BBB. -The lenders say, no way I lend you CASH for your junk bonds at Fed rate. The repo rate changes to 10% 2/ Corporate junk bonds gone up 60% - If the borrower don't accept the higher rate, they have to sell their...

stockmarketupdate

Two decades of monetary easing since 2000 explains why core Personal Consumption Expenditure (CPE) and inflation has remained low and why it will go down further. The ramification for when it happens is a financial crisis like no others. It all started in 2000 when Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan; faced four challenges that caused near deflation....

stockmarketupdate

Yesterday's correction happened because of the difference between the S&P500 yields rise compared with the 10-year treasurer yield. The SMI service weakness has spooked investors, and risk is on the rise. The S&P chart also shoes the august bounce back made a lower high than July and broke through the low trend line . The outlook is weak, and the US Fed cut will...

stockmarketupdate

Active portfolio management is about adjusting investment allocation based on the balance of power between various market macroeconomic forces on a short term and long term basis. When done correctly, it results in a potent and very profitable return, often better the market regardless of the market direction. Here is an example of foreseeing the market bounce...

stockmarketupdate

LONG Just a warning, the S&P500 has a strong monthly demand at 2900 level and once it gets close to this level it will rally to 3000. Volatility works both ways; it pushes the market down and creates buying opportunities as crowd panic. Today the US and Global market went down an average of 1-2% on the US weak manufacturing PMI data. US manufacturing only...

stockmarketupdate

Trump administration officials are weighing delisting Chinese companies from American stock exchanges and putting a limit on U.S. government pension funds’ exposure to the Chinese market. Alibaba shares dropped 5% on the report. Baidu and JD.com also traded lower. The move would come as the U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks on Oct. 10 in Washington...

stockmarketupdate

There are major fundamental differences between English and Chinese. - Chinese focuses on the meaning, not the words. - In Chinese, idioms are very widely used to make the expression more vivid - Chinese emphasise the last part of the sentence. Liao Min, China’s finance vice-minister siad: “A real agreement, in my opinion, will not be buying more crops and...

stockmarketupdate

Trump's Crafty Market Policy When reporters asked Trump to respond to the Ukraine transcript, Trump said: "Market will go up because I released the transcript, then he repeated this phrase three times: "China deal is closer than you think." "China deal is closer than you think." "China deal is closer than you think." The US market that was struggling before...

stockmarketupdate

In my previous article, I pointed out the world is not ready for the upcoming global recession based on a broad spectrum of economic factors. In this post, I've summarised why the value of the US Bellwether S&P500 needs to drop by 50% to maintain the historical average 10% return for a balanced mix portfolio for the next ten years. According to historical...