What is a "danger zone" and how do we determine if Bitcoin is in a situation to either crash or move higher?
The "danger zone" we've been hearing about is a time based fractal of past history. The 2023 bullish wave and 2024 new All-Time High shatters all time related predictions based on past history. Since we have completely different timing this time around (as in wave duration), we cannot expect for any situation to develop as it did in the past but instead we should expect the unexpected.
What is the most expected scenario right now?
What is the main market sentiment?
➖ The most expected scenario right now is a continuation of the bullish move that peaked 14-March 2024 at ~$74,000.
➖ The market sentiment is bullish.
What is the least expected scenario right now?
➖ People are open to the possibility of believing that Bitcoin can actually move lower but they do not expect it.
➖ People know it is possible for Bitcoin to move lower but they can't see it, they don't know what or how it feels.
➖ It is not the same to say Bitcoin is going to $150,000, "It is going to be great!" vs actually living and feeling the experience.
➖ It is an experience.
Believe it or not, the least expected scenario is the most likely scenario.
How do we know if Bitcoin is moving higher or lower?
Is it possible to know?
What do we know?
➖ We can make an educated guess or we can prepare for different scenarios.
➖ We can know what the market is doing and what it is most likely to do based on current and past action.
➖ We know Bitcoin has been going down now for two months straight, 60 days. Bitcoin going down for this long can be interpreted as the bears loading, building up force and momentum to later move ahead.
It is the inverse to a the classic accumulation/consolidation phase... It is called distribution!
Namaste.
The "danger zone" we've been hearing about is a time based fractal of past history. The 2023 bullish wave and 2024 new All-Time High shatters all time related predictions based on past history. Since we have completely different timing this time around (as in wave duration), we cannot expect for any situation to develop as it did in the past but instead we should expect the unexpected.
What is the most expected scenario right now?
What is the main market sentiment?
➖ The most expected scenario right now is a continuation of the bullish move that peaked 14-March 2024 at ~$74,000.
➖ The market sentiment is bullish.
What is the least expected scenario right now?
➖ People are open to the possibility of believing that Bitcoin can actually move lower but they do not expect it.
➖ People know it is possible for Bitcoin to move lower but they can't see it, they don't know what or how it feels.
➖ It is not the same to say Bitcoin is going to $150,000, "It is going to be great!" vs actually living and feeling the experience.
➖ It is an experience.
Believe it or not, the least expected scenario is the most likely scenario.
How do we know if Bitcoin is moving higher or lower?
Is it possible to know?
What do we know?
➖ We can make an educated guess or we can prepare for different scenarios.
➖ We can know what the market is doing and what it is most likely to do based on current and past action.
➖ We know Bitcoin has been going down now for two months straight, 60 days. Bitcoin going down for this long can be interpreted as the bears loading, building up force and momentum to later move ahead.
It is the inverse to a the classic accumulation/consolidation phase... It is called distribution!
Namaste.
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Signals are available everywhere... And new data is coming in all of the timing.
The market is great.
Even though we get confirmation after confirmation, doubts still creeps in.
Even though we see the market moving just as we would expect it to move based on the cycle, sentiment and chart signals; confirmation after confirmation, for real.
Somehow, each time there is a small rise in price doubt creeps in.
➖ Will Bitcoin move to hit a new All-Time High next?
➖ Is the correction over?
➖ How can I be certain prices will not continue higher?
➖ How can I be certain prices will continue lower?
"Bitcoin is trading above $60,000 after all and that's pretty strong."
Well, actually, below 70K is ultra-bearish after a new ATH at 74K, but this is not the topic for this update.
In early 2022 we were discussing here on TradingView the bear-market that was developing for Crypto and how far down Bitcoin would go.
We were dead set on finding the target and as you know, we shared hundreds and hundreds of charts. All of us, the different players.
After a while, we decided that Bitcoin was going to settle around 20K because that was the 2017 ATH. We concluded that the bottom would happen in June or November 2021 and reach several others and varied conclusions.
We all agreed and everything was clear; it was early 2022, we still had a long way to go before reaching 20K; Bitcoin crashed below 20K and yes, even 15K was tested as support.
A certain public figure, I won't name any names, said in early 2022 that Bitcoin would move lower but stay above 30K. It doesn't matter what happens it would never go below 30K... Bitcoin was trading in the 40Ks at the time.
Sure enough, that was the signal...
Bitcoin crashed and did not move below 30K but went even lower and hit below 16K.
The same character is now saying that "Bitcoin will stay in $55K to $75K zone for now" ... This means that the crash is confirmed and it is going below 30K.
Namaste.