Above Here S&P Levitates
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5246.25, up 7.25 on Friday and 91.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,255, up 40.50 on Friday and 254.25 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures secured a strong week despite hotter than expected 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.5% versus 3.2% via the politically fueled Michigan Consumer survey on Friday. The dataset also highlighted eroding Sentiment and Expectations hitting six-month lows. For the record, many studies are proving the survey to be politically divided, something that always can play a factor in soft data, especially during an election year, as opposed to hard data using analytics. Furthermore, the mounting inflation expectations are likely a byproduct of a worsening consumer; if your wallet is stretched, costs become more of a burden. This sets the stage for a pivotal week ahead. PPI is due tomorrow, and CPI and Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. It has been no secret that inflation remained more stubborn in the first quarter than expected at the onset. We are of the belief we begin seeing some of those tailwinds reined in. Fed Chair Powell will also be on the docket tomorrow, speaking at an international conference. He has been noted saying that inflation expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy; imagine if you know gas prices will be higher next week, you will fill your car up this week.
Price action leading into the opening bell Friday was enthusiastic before a whipsaw of profit taking was met with hotter than expected inflation expectations. Still, the tape worked itself higher from a 10:30 am CT low that now aligns as major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5232.75-5236 and a similar level in the E-mini NQ at 18,179-18,204. Thursday’s strength pushed the indices out above a bull-flag consolidation pattern, and we view this major three-star support as defining that breakout and a line in the sand fueling a push toward record highs. Despite our optimism, let us not ignore headwinds. It is no coincidence that price action stopped where it did Friday, as we had major three-star resistance noted overhead, and we must see a break above here in order to keep fueling broader optimism.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5260.25-5266.25***, 5272.50-5274.25**, 5287.75-5292.75**, 5207-5208.50***, 5215.25-5221****
Pivot: 5250.75
Support: 5243.25-5246.25***, 5232.75-5236***, 5226.75**, 5218.75-52120.75***, 5213-5215.25***, 5200.75-5204.25***, 5184.75-5191.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,326-18,348***, 18,485*** 18,558-18,607***
Pivot: 18,255-18,271
Support: 18,228-18,237**, 18,179-18,204***, 18,108-18,129**, 18,042-18,078***, 17,962-17,986**, 17,893-17,930***, 17,805-17,826**, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,690****
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Last week’s close: Settled at 60,950, down 1,890 on Friday and 1,640 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 63,440-63,900**, 64,750-64,975**, 65,335*, 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***
Pivot: 62,750-63,105
Support: 62,110-62,590***, 61,725**, 60,950-61,060***, 60,386-60,410****, 59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000****
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5246.25, up 7.25 on Friday and 91.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,255, up 40.50 on Friday and 254.25 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures secured a strong week despite hotter than expected 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.5% versus 3.2% via the politically fueled Michigan Consumer survey on Friday. The dataset also highlighted eroding Sentiment and Expectations hitting six-month lows. For the record, many studies are proving the survey to be politically divided, something that always can play a factor in soft data, especially during an election year, as opposed to hard data using analytics. Furthermore, the mounting inflation expectations are likely a byproduct of a worsening consumer; if your wallet is stretched, costs become more of a burden. This sets the stage for a pivotal week ahead. PPI is due tomorrow, and CPI and Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. It has been no secret that inflation remained more stubborn in the first quarter than expected at the onset. We are of the belief we begin seeing some of those tailwinds reined in. Fed Chair Powell will also be on the docket tomorrow, speaking at an international conference. He has been noted saying that inflation expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy; imagine if you know gas prices will be higher next week, you will fill your car up this week.
Price action leading into the opening bell Friday was enthusiastic before a whipsaw of profit taking was met with hotter than expected inflation expectations. Still, the tape worked itself higher from a 10:30 am CT low that now aligns as major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5232.75-5236 and a similar level in the E-mini NQ at 18,179-18,204. Thursday’s strength pushed the indices out above a bull-flag consolidation pattern, and we view this major three-star support as defining that breakout and a line in the sand fueling a push toward record highs. Despite our optimism, let us not ignore headwinds. It is no coincidence that price action stopped where it did Friday, as we had major three-star resistance noted overhead, and we must see a break above here in order to keep fueling broader optimism.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5260.25-5266.25***, 5272.50-5274.25**, 5287.75-5292.75**, 5207-5208.50***, 5215.25-5221****
Pivot: 5250.75
Support: 5243.25-5246.25***, 5232.75-5236***, 5226.75**, 5218.75-52120.75***, 5213-5215.25***, 5200.75-5204.25***, 5184.75-5191.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,326-18,348***, 18,485*** 18,558-18,607***
Pivot: 18,255-18,271
Support: 18,228-18,237**, 18,179-18,204***, 18,108-18,129**, 18,042-18,078***, 17,962-17,986**, 17,893-17,930***, 17,805-17,826**, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,690****
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Last week’s close: Settled at 60,950, down 1,890 on Friday and 1,640 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 63,440-63,900**, 64,750-64,975**, 65,335*, 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***
Pivot: 62,750-63,105
Support: 62,110-62,590***, 61,725**, 60,950-61,060***, 60,386-60,410****, 59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000****
Sign up for a FREE trial of our daily research: bluelinefutures.com/free-trial/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Sign up for a FREE trial of our daily actionable research at bluelinefutures.com/free-trial/