Da_Prof

Da_Prof

The first push of BTC to over $70K in this bull cycle, the risk was becoming overheated quickly. The BTI indicator risk was around 7 to 7.25 and some indicators (e.g., the NUPL) were getting close to triggering. Now the overall risk is at a much healthier 5.59. Continued chop in this area will help further reset the individual BTI top indicators, but ultimately,...

Da_Prof

The BTC risk is still at the mid-7s. With a max of 13 on the risk, that means we are still likely far from the cycle top. There are a few indicators that are nearing top signals (NUPL, RP extension, CVDD extension, PDM), but most indicators are far from their top signals. We had a much needed cool down period for BTC to reset some of the overheated indicators.

Da_Prof

The risk value for the BTC top indicator is still only at 7.48. Major tops occur at over 10. So according to this indicator, a major top is still a good ways away. That being said, now is a good time for BTC to cool off since several top indicators are nearing triggers including the coin value days destroyed and realized price extensions, the net unrealized...

Da_Prof

The NUPL (currently at about 65) for Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the 70 level, which is the value of a sloped line connecting previous NUPL tops. Will this cause a local or cycle top? Seems early for a cycle top, but we may see a local top once we hit the line. If we use the straight line on the indicator, the topping value is 73.

Da_Prof

Meme coin volumes can signal times of market euphoria and the MCV is generally a leading indicator of a top. Today, the aggregate volume of the largest meme coins spiked above critical levels and to the highest levels seen in the history of the indicator. Is a local top near? Crypto market participants may be wise plan for a potential local top in the "near"...

Da_Prof

The PCTR indicator is only just at the midpoint for BTC. We have a significant amount of time left in this bull market according to this indicator. There will be pullbacks, but the PTCR says we have room to continue to the upside in this cycle.

Da_Prof

The hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has...

Da_Prof

The hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has...

Da_Prof

The memecoin gain oscillator (soon to be published) may indicate a current mania (12/28/2023). Care should be taken in the current market. Is the ETF speculation a sell the news event? Memecoin gains have been a signal in the past that the top is near. The indicator is detecting a high level of speculation currently.

Da_Prof

This is a view of the BBI, BTI, and BTB indicators on the daily BLX chart showing their ability to detect macro cycle tops and bottoms. These indicators are a combination of on-chain and seasonality indicators. The tops and bottoms are selected based on a confluence of multiple indicators.