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A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive...

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Regime Change Indicator The Russian ruble will let us know when the madness might end. The Russian ruble has halved in value over the last four months, accelerating that trend recently, coincident with economic sanctions being imposed by governments and by corporations themselves. At the start of the war, some economists noted that the Russian economy might be...

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Fortune Favors the Brave - Yet another sign that a mania is mature. Hyperbole is a useful word to know. Meaning, “ exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally, ” an example would be something like, “ That cat is the size of an elephant!. ” Hyperbole is used when we want to emphasize a point, mainly because of our conviction and belief...

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Remember, my goal is to stay in the game. The people who got wiped out by the crashes tended to be people who never took anything off the table, who never felt greedy, who got slaughtered by their own piggishness. Have you taken your profit? Have you booked anything? Or are you being a pig? Because you never know when things you own are going to crash. You never...

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Does this suggest War will go end? A multi-year triangle gives us a clue. Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element. Large-degree triangles in...

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Crude Oil (ICE) Brent - "Big-picture" Bullish! A proportional countertrend retreat should set the stage for the next leg of the advance. It's way too early to get a read on a potential shape for Supercycle wave (b) , but it should last for years and potentially retrace as much as 90%-105% of the wave (a) decline. Stay tuned!

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This Chart Suggests That China Will Help Russia A negative mood in China could be reaching an extreme. Reports over the weekend are stating that Russia has asked China for military and economic assistance as its invasion of Ukraine gets bogged down. A new Sino-Russia friendship pact was formed just before Russia launched its assault, with Putin and Xi Jinping...

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Are Elliott waves pointing to a military incident in Europe? Gotland is a Swedish island in the middle of the Baltic Sea , commanding a key strategic position. In 1915 , the Battle of Gotland was a crucial moment in The Great War , with the navy of the German Empire being defeated by that of the Russian Empire . Assisting the Russian navy that day was a...

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The Dollar and Deflation Elliott waves in FX might be anticipating  deflation. Demand for U.S. dollars has surged over the past couple of weeks as the economic and financial sanctions on Russia cause all sorts of ramifications . Essentially, taking out an active chunk of the day-to-day global capital markets reduces financial transactions and makes the...

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B wave finished? Wave C is coming!

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Natural Gas - Weekly Bottom Line : "Big-picture" Bullish. Repeating : The higher probability view is to label the Primary wave ((C)) decline as an ending diagonal to complete Cycle y . Ending diagonals are terminal structures. They are typically followed by swift reversals that retrace the entire length of the pattern. There’s not enough historical price...

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Comex Copper - Weekly Bottom Line : Adjusted wave count: Comex Copper may complete a flat correction by rising to a new high. Comex Copper may be rising in wave (C) of a flat correction developing as wave X (circled) of an ongoing bear market from 2011.

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Another Market Myth Exposed The Nasdaq index has now declined by 10% from its November high , prompting the mainstream financial media to call it a “ correction ” whatever that means. I think they call it a bear market when it is down by 20% . Many stocks have already fallen by at least that amount, and realistically, it’s all semantics anyway. It’s early...

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Gold - Weekly Gold : Expanded flat - Correction in progress Bottom Line : Gold may remain within its correction up. Gold remains up in wave C of (Y) towards the 2200.00 area.

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Market Myth - Gold and Inflation Consumer price inflation is up but Gold is down. That’s not unusual. Gold , they say, is the ultimate consumer price inflation hedge . The famous story goes that a Roman strutting his stuff down Via Sacra back in Emperor Nero’s day nearly two thousand years ago would have paid an ounce of gold for his top-of-the-market toga,...

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The Economist - Brazil takes off (Nov 14th 2009 edition) The Economist - The betrayal of Brazil (Apr 23rd 2016 edition) The Economist - Brazil’s dismal decade (Jun 5th 2021 edition) If this isn't an indication to get long Brazilian equities, I don't know what is. Never confuse education with intelligence. You can have a Ph.D. and still be an idiot!

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Silver - Weekly Bottom Line : Silver may continue to a new correction high before a top forms. Silver may continue rising to new highs to complete a double zigzag correction up as wave X (circled) . The pattern is visible on the daily chart, but not the 1-week chart.

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DeFi Frenzy Overtakes Crypto Market Positive price pressure on Bitcoin, and the crypto market as a whole, had been building for months since the  COVID crash in March 2020. All that was missing from kicking things over into an actual bull market was a narrative... Well, it looks like crypto has found one at long last. Decentralized finance If you're new...