ianrdouglas

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is an update on and supersedes my last chart (linked below). That last chart is wrong. Forget it. The Elliott wave count is wrong. So what's different here? Well, to be honest, a YouTube video on an Elliott wave count that made Elliot wave theory seem like the invention of cretins got under my skin, but did make a decent point. Elliott wave theory depends...

ianrdouglas

Let's see how this chart holds up. NOTE 1: For anyone who wants to take this chart and look into it, the Fibonacci spirals do move around in log, so I have a target (in yellow) on the chart. The chart is best scaled so the cream-colored arc intersects with that target. Then you'll be looking at the chart as I'm looking at it. NOTE 2: This year has been a...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This chart is a bit complex. Anyone interested in exploring it might best use the "Make it Mine" function under "Share". 1) The timing is guesswork, even with the Fibonacci time tool overlaid. The main point is that I still see these levels as being in play. 2) In terms of Wyckoff, I don't think we've seen the Seller's Climax (SC) yet. What I think we've seen,...

ianrdouglas

This chart is amended from an original published by Peter Brandt. There's an element of conscious retro-fitting here. But not so much, in my view, to make the chart invalid. 1) I don't believe the "Covid crash" was a chart anomaly. So I included that low in the last arc. 2) I added trendlines between cycle lows and cycle highs. Measuring the angle of these...

ianrdouglas

This chart is near impossible to take seriously. Can it be discounted entirely? Some background: I became interested in seven-wave structures. These structures play out in all markets, and on multiple timeframes. While the pattern plays out the upside as well as the downside, seven-wave crash structures are particularly noticeable. Seven waves down, and within...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This chart is based on the wider macro picture I'm projecting in the linked analysis. 1. BTC is still in the C Wave of an ABC correction. 2. Analysing this ABC correction using a seven-wave crash structure analysis can give us projections of where the base could come in. 3. At the macro level, there are two projections, and a range in-between: 21.4k and 16.9k....

ianrdouglas

1. I published this chart earlier as a private idea, looking for feedback from more experienced technical analysts. I've been in the cryptospace only for five months, focused on BTC because I realised that without knowing that chart in detail I would not be able to trade anything else safely. 2. I started to observe, in watching BTC live, and going back through...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is an unconventional chart. First, it is inverted. I also inverted the colors of the candles to match. I have become interested in crash structures, and seven-wave structures in general, which I see repeated on multiple timeframes, whether in uptrends or downtrends. These seven-wave structures are similar to traditional Elliot motive waves, but I find it...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is an interesting confluence. I've been trying to narrow down where exactly BTC will land as the next local bottom comes in. In my view, BTC is currently printing a second seven-wave crash structure, completing an ABC correction in what, for me, is Wave 6 down in a seven-wave ascent to its blow-off top at 80k. $41,496 has been emerging for me as a key...

ianrdouglas Updated 

1) BTC's bull run remains intact, in my view. 2) Elon Musk's tweet was interestingly timed, but does not explain BTC's drop in the last 24hrs. Technicals come first. News provides narratives to explain what has already happened and is inexorable on the price chart. 3) I see BTC as completing a seven-wave structure to its parabolic peak. I continue to hold this...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I have to publish this as a 15-minute chart because TradingView doesn't let authors publish charts below 15 minutes. But the original I've been mapping this on, as a study, is a 5-minute chart. Fascinating to me how the seven-wave crash structure is repeating in fractals throughout BTC's price action when sustained moves down occur. This whole section is full...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Every time I put together a chart and post it, I try next to invalidate it. My last chart (see linked) was about a possible backtest of support at 50k in the coming five days. This chart takes the contrary view. I posted in April a chart that examined the immediate period before the 2017 peak, and asked whether this might be repeating now. Looking at the...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is a long way from forming completely, and might not happen. I do think BTC is still in an uptrend. But yesterday's price action does suggest the possibility of more downside action before upside momentum retakes control. The consolidation area (marked with an ellipse) before the last lowest low remains unconfirmed as support. Normally one would expect a...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I'm interested in contrary opinions, and contrary indications. But BTC looks strong to me, here on the 4hr chart, and I currently — and tentatively — expect this to continue and confirm on larger timeframes. I also expect alts to begin to feel these tailwinds, if indeed BTC is back on track. 1) Has reclaimed and is above all key EMAs. 2) Conversion baseline...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I remain bullish on BTC. I had expected a lower low than the one that came in, but I didn't expect a full reversal of trend. In my view, corroborated by looking back at 2017 (see linked analysis), April has simply witnessed another relatively mild correction. In being mild, this has been a concern, because the fifth wave in the seven wave structure I see being...

ianrdouglas

There's still a lot of uncertainty in the BTC chart. This is not a prediction, and certainly not in terms of the timeframe, though I think the local top for BTC could come in quickly — as fast as within four weeks or so. This is simply a structure to look out for, if BTC resumes its ascent. Space in the next 4-5 days for bull flags to be printed. Start of a...

ianrdouglas

Tentatively we can assume the base is in. It came in higher than I expected, but BTC did in fact complete the crash structure (see linked analysis). So now we can adjust the local Fibonacci and get a more accurate comparison between now and the January and February corrections. Some observations: 1) Like February, and unlike January, the initial upside counter...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I don't know if there is any name for this movement, or how it relates to Elliot wave theory, which I haven't studied in-depth as yet, but I see this pattern repeat on many charts, and in many markets, and while nothing is certain and I could be wrong, it suggests to me that the bottom of BTC's April correction is nearly in. Essentially a seven-wave movement. You...