On the daily chart, I believe we are forming a high tight flag. The way to typically play this is to enter the trade when breaking through the top of the trend line. I’m going to buy here at the bottom of the trend line, because i am certain where it goes in the future.
On the weekly, this is forming a massive 2 and half year cup and handle.
I believe this asset has a very high likelihood (call it 99%) of 150-350% returns in the short 1-2 year time frame.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin has a halving event where the amount of bitcoin that is created every 10 minutes is cut in half. Right now 6.25 BTC are issued to a winning miner roughly every 10 minutes. In April 2024 a halving will occur and the amount that will be issued every 10 min is halved to 3.125 BTC, which remains in place till the next halving in 2028. This continues to happen every 4 years, until the now 19.6 million supply of bitcoin reaches 21 million in 2140. The current inflation rate is 1.7%, and will halve to .84%, and then continue to halve every 4 years till no more will ever be created in 2140.
“When new supply creation is cut in half, it creates a supply shock that upends the existing supply/demand price equilibrium. Suddenly there is not as much new supply going out into the market to meet demand. This supply shortage accumulates, day after day, and naturally buyers starts to raise their bids in order to find willing sellers. As a result, the price starts to drift upwards. This is called price discovery, and it’s what happens in all markets when conditions change and the price tries to re-establish supply/demand price equilibrium.”
This bitcoin halving supply shock has already occurred 3 times in bitcoin’s history and the 1-1.5 years that follow it have produced peak gains of:
9541% in 2013
2800% in 2017
684% in 2021
The last halving just happened 10 days ago on April 19th, 2024 and the price was at $64,000. This is the moment in time before the big run up and
“And yet, 99% of people have never even heard about Bitcoin’s halvings. The fact that you are reading this means that you are now in that 1%. That’s called information asymmetry – you have an edge on the rest of the world.”
As you can see, there have been diminishing returns with each halving cycle, but many holders from the last cycle believe they were short changed, as the peak in price was met with the Fed raising rates causing downward pressure on all assets. If the peak of this upcoming cycle matches the last cycle’s returns from today’s price, that would put bitcoin’s price at 330k. What has happened after these peak prices is a long bear markets for 2 years, before the price finds its bottom and then makes it march up to even higher numbers over the next few years. It is also logical that bear market drops may diminish with bitcoin’s inflation rate continuing to drop to lower and lower rates with each halving and to-be mentioned later ETFs likely leading to a more consistent inflow of capital.
If you lived in Argentina and you got paid in pesos (211% inflation rate), would you convert a portion of your savings from pesos to dollars because of inflation, even if you couldn’t buy a coffee with dollars locally yet? Well, what if you currently get paid in dollars but there is a better money you can save in? Wouldn’t you do the same? This 53 year experiment of unbacked fiat currencies, will all print to an end down the road. Any currency that is controlled by someone who can give themselves and friends more of it by simply pressing a button will always inflate away. These currencies are all different sized ice cubes melting away to worthlessness at different rates. The US dollar is just the largest and is melting the slowest. BTC is like those premium ice cubes. It doesn’t melt.
Bitcoin is the best money the world has seen and everyday more and more people are realizing it. This is why the price has gone from having no value to 62k per coin in its 15 years of existence and will continue rise. BTC has accumulators and HODLers of all sizes from all countries who want to grab as much absolute digital scarcity as possible. These people convert any fiat currency they receive immediately into bitcoin. Not only does bitcoin have these types of savers who will never stop buying, there are now some new guys on the block…. Fidelity, Blackrock, Charles Schwab, and a few others large institutions have started offering BTC ETFs as of a few weeks ago. Vanguard has said they won’t a bitcoin ETF, but will cave eventually. The trading volume of the ETFs have been insane and they have only been online a few weeks. As much as I hate them, the ETFs will lead to huge inflows of capital, as they give access to retirement accounts, financial institutions, HNWIs, and old boomer money that doesn’t want to deal with holding their own private keys and would rather just check their fidelity accounts. I believe there will be a push from these institutions for everyone to allocate 1-5% of their portfolio to BTC. This will be the new standard. Check what they have already accumulated. Morgan Stanley just announced they may allow 15,000 brokers to start recommending Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. The importance of these ETFs for the price cannot be overstated. This is MASSIVE and can’t be priced in.
Another thing to look for is more companies adding BTC to their balance sheet. New laws passed with the FASB rules to allow companies to now “measure their bitcoin at fair value recorded in the income at each reporting period”. Currently, companies are only allowed to use the purchase price. So if you bought at 20k and it’s currently value is at 40k, you have to list the value at 20k. Microstrategy (stock up 340% LY) was the first company to add BTC to their sheet back in 2019 and now hold 214k BTC , accumulating anywhere from 500-15k BTC per month. It will be hard to catch them. Tether just sits with billions in US T-bills printing 5% and buys btc with it. They just bought 8.8k BTC and now hold 66k. Tesla bought 40k, sold 30k, and still hold 10k. I expect more companies to follow in the next 2 years and I am of the opinion that every company in the S&P 500 will eventually have a bitcoin strategy and will hold it on their balance sheet. Nation states will join in too.
The bitcoin network is secured by one of the fastest growing sectors in the stock market. The bitcoin transactions we send to each other are processed by bitcoin miners who at the same time secure the network and earn rewards for doing it. The hash rate of these miners has been and will continue to increase at an astronomical rates. Ticker symbol WGMI, which mainly consists of bitcoin miners was the best performing ETF in ETFs history at 304% in 2023 and outpaced bitcoin, but has since had a massive pullback. The scale, growth, and expected growth of these companies is getting crazy. I have a smaller but “still higher than anything I’ve gotten in sports betting” level conviction that this sector pumps with BTC, maybe even outperforming it, but comes with way more risk and volatility. This sector is also merging with the AI sector, so it could pop off.
I have now studied bitcoin for thousands of hours, and followed the market closely for the last 6.5 years. The trend of what is going to happen is clear and it cannot be stopped. I have been there for all the ups and downs and continue to learn from people smarter than me every day. Looking at BTC’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) compared to other assets over basically any time frame, BTC crushes them.
This is an easy asymmetric bet that I expect to return 150%-350% over the next 2 years, and 1000%-1500% over the next 6-10 years. Bitcoin’s CAGR should outpace any other traditional asset for the rest our lives. This asset does have potential for extreme downward volatility over short periods, so be ready for that.
On the weekly, this is forming a massive 2 and half year cup and handle.
I believe this asset has a very high likelihood (call it 99%) of 150-350% returns in the short 1-2 year time frame.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin has a halving event where the amount of bitcoin that is created every 10 minutes is cut in half. Right now 6.25 BTC are issued to a winning miner roughly every 10 minutes. In April 2024 a halving will occur and the amount that will be issued every 10 min is halved to 3.125 BTC, which remains in place till the next halving in 2028. This continues to happen every 4 years, until the now 19.6 million supply of bitcoin reaches 21 million in 2140. The current inflation rate is 1.7%, and will halve to .84%, and then continue to halve every 4 years till no more will ever be created in 2140.
“When new supply creation is cut in half, it creates a supply shock that upends the existing supply/demand price equilibrium. Suddenly there is not as much new supply going out into the market to meet demand. This supply shortage accumulates, day after day, and naturally buyers starts to raise their bids in order to find willing sellers. As a result, the price starts to drift upwards. This is called price discovery, and it’s what happens in all markets when conditions change and the price tries to re-establish supply/demand price equilibrium.”
This bitcoin halving supply shock has already occurred 3 times in bitcoin’s history and the 1-1.5 years that follow it have produced peak gains of:
9541% in 2013
2800% in 2017
684% in 2021
The last halving just happened 10 days ago on April 19th, 2024 and the price was at $64,000. This is the moment in time before the big run up and
“And yet, 99% of people have never even heard about Bitcoin’s halvings. The fact that you are reading this means that you are now in that 1%. That’s called information asymmetry – you have an edge on the rest of the world.”
As you can see, there have been diminishing returns with each halving cycle, but many holders from the last cycle believe they were short changed, as the peak in price was met with the Fed raising rates causing downward pressure on all assets. If the peak of this upcoming cycle matches the last cycle’s returns from today’s price, that would put bitcoin’s price at 330k. What has happened after these peak prices is a long bear markets for 2 years, before the price finds its bottom and then makes it march up to even higher numbers over the next few years. It is also logical that bear market drops may diminish with bitcoin’s inflation rate continuing to drop to lower and lower rates with each halving and to-be mentioned later ETFs likely leading to a more consistent inflow of capital.
If you lived in Argentina and you got paid in pesos (211% inflation rate), would you convert a portion of your savings from pesos to dollars because of inflation, even if you couldn’t buy a coffee with dollars locally yet? Well, what if you currently get paid in dollars but there is a better money you can save in? Wouldn’t you do the same? This 53 year experiment of unbacked fiat currencies, will all print to an end down the road. Any currency that is controlled by someone who can give themselves and friends more of it by simply pressing a button will always inflate away. These currencies are all different sized ice cubes melting away to worthlessness at different rates. The US dollar is just the largest and is melting the slowest. BTC is like those premium ice cubes. It doesn’t melt.
Bitcoin is the best money the world has seen and everyday more and more people are realizing it. This is why the price has gone from having no value to 62k per coin in its 15 years of existence and will continue rise. BTC has accumulators and HODLers of all sizes from all countries who want to grab as much absolute digital scarcity as possible. These people convert any fiat currency they receive immediately into bitcoin. Not only does bitcoin have these types of savers who will never stop buying, there are now some new guys on the block…. Fidelity, Blackrock, Charles Schwab, and a few others large institutions have started offering BTC ETFs as of a few weeks ago. Vanguard has said they won’t a bitcoin ETF, but will cave eventually. The trading volume of the ETFs have been insane and they have only been online a few weeks. As much as I hate them, the ETFs will lead to huge inflows of capital, as they give access to retirement accounts, financial institutions, HNWIs, and old boomer money that doesn’t want to deal with holding their own private keys and would rather just check their fidelity accounts. I believe there will be a push from these institutions for everyone to allocate 1-5% of their portfolio to BTC. This will be the new standard. Check what they have already accumulated. Morgan Stanley just announced they may allow 15,000 brokers to start recommending Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. The importance of these ETFs for the price cannot be overstated. This is MASSIVE and can’t be priced in.
Another thing to look for is more companies adding BTC to their balance sheet. New laws passed with the FASB rules to allow companies to now “measure their bitcoin at fair value recorded in the income at each reporting period”. Currently, companies are only allowed to use the purchase price. So if you bought at 20k and it’s currently value is at 40k, you have to list the value at 20k. Microstrategy (stock up 340% LY) was the first company to add BTC to their sheet back in 2019 and now hold 214k BTC , accumulating anywhere from 500-15k BTC per month. It will be hard to catch them. Tether just sits with billions in US T-bills printing 5% and buys btc with it. They just bought 8.8k BTC and now hold 66k. Tesla bought 40k, sold 30k, and still hold 10k. I expect more companies to follow in the next 2 years and I am of the opinion that every company in the S&P 500 will eventually have a bitcoin strategy and will hold it on their balance sheet. Nation states will join in too.
The bitcoin network is secured by one of the fastest growing sectors in the stock market. The bitcoin transactions we send to each other are processed by bitcoin miners who at the same time secure the network and earn rewards for doing it. The hash rate of these miners has been and will continue to increase at an astronomical rates. Ticker symbol WGMI, which mainly consists of bitcoin miners was the best performing ETF in ETFs history at 304% in 2023 and outpaced bitcoin, but has since had a massive pullback. The scale, growth, and expected growth of these companies is getting crazy. I have a smaller but “still higher than anything I’ve gotten in sports betting” level conviction that this sector pumps with BTC, maybe even outperforming it, but comes with way more risk and volatility. This sector is also merging with the AI sector, so it could pop off.
I have now studied bitcoin for thousands of hours, and followed the market closely for the last 6.5 years. The trend of what is going to happen is clear and it cannot be stopped. I have been there for all the ups and downs and continue to learn from people smarter than me every day. Looking at BTC’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) compared to other assets over basically any time frame, BTC crushes them.
This is an easy asymmetric bet that I expect to return 150%-350% over the next 2 years, and 1000%-1500% over the next 6-10 years. Bitcoin’s CAGR should outpace any other traditional asset for the rest our lives. This asset does have potential for extreme downward volatility over short periods, so be ready for that.