XLF To RallyXLF normally moves quite slowly, but we may may be at a moment in which that accelerates substantially, even improving on what has been a phenomenal year. Weekly - Daily - The EW path drawn is what may be expected most commonly - we're looking for that or better.Longby FuturesIntelTMUpdated 222
XLF- Nope Nothings ChangedXLF.... I could on long diatribe about the Banking sector and financials and the economy... But I'm not You want to know why? (i'm going to tell you regardless) It's because deep down you know that the Banking system is a house of cards and these Bankers..JUST..CANT..RESIST..THEMSELVES SHORT XLF...for now...and then a Big Short (pun intended) later (i'll show the "later" on anther chart at a later time...hint see that big horizontal white line well below the "C"...thats the destination for the other "later")by Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 2
Do you trust financials to break out here? $XLFBelow I show you a longterm AMEX:XLF chart that has had a complete rocket higher without any consolidation in price. In my opinion XLF cannot break out here without some consolidation back down in price; and then maybe it can retest and breakout; but I don't think it can do it on the initial attempt... I may be wrong, but you can place your bets accordingly. Goodluck! Shortby StockPickingEnthusiastUpdated 2
XLF Weekly ChartsWell we've been here before with financials. Are we ready to go ahead and move along from this level? I'LL be completely honest I don't like that wick on last weeks candle, but we still closed green making it the 10th positive week. Regardless of what I believe the chart is the chart. by SLICKNICK_250
ToppingXLF has been up on the weekly without any major pullback since October, 2023. Now the rally has reached major resistance from previous ATH and with a series of 3 bearish divergence in RSI, the 5-wave rally from the October lows has either topped or is near a top. The rally is also getting less steep falling under the trend line. The next big move is likely to be down with the looming FOMC event on Wednesday.Shortby TraderBwater0
$XLF: Financials are unloved and ready to rallyInteresting long term trend in AMEX:XLF here, paired with record low positioning for hedge funds, makes for a low risk vs reward and highly appealing long setup. Additionally, paints a positive picture for the broad market as well. I present to you the sector ETF, now it's up to you to find the hidden gems in the sector that will likely reap the largest rewards...I will try to find these and report to my clientele of course. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.Longby IvanLabrieUpdated 6
XLF 3d Chart, 2024 Q1-Q2Publishing XLF to see how the financial etf does going forward. It's at the decision point of either breaking through to new ATHs or possibly forming a double top in the higher time frames. by cmerged0
Weekly chart analysis - Harmonic Patterns Pay close attention to 40$ Two bearish harmonic patterns are in play hereShortby themarketzone1
FINANCIAL SECTOR MELTDOWN IN T MINUS 3There is always a cause to an effect and the matter at hand is the markets are the textbook definition of OVERBOUGHT lower expectations so you can crush it, changing the definition of a recession so you can keep investors and of course the unknowledgeable stakeholders of the bank at ease this wont work the pressure will eventually burst the tank especially with the coming rate hike on the bright side while the pressure was building up they managed to reinforce and build a tank around the tank to reduce the damage and absorb the shock (the unusual rally in the QQQ n general market) yes this unusual rally in all markets might just safeguard a worst case scenario for that reasons the various zone are where id expect a continuation worst case senario it hits 26.55 yikes imagine how much worse the other sectors will have it and of course the stocks in it (stocks will always yield X2,X3 more than the sector bull and bear) that said im just going to show you where to short your money my speculation unfolds (hopefully it wont say the bulls) 1. THE AMEX:IAT 2. Once we know the AMEX:IAT dumping we look for bigger yields in its babies NYSE:WFC NYSE:JPM NASDAQ:PACW NYSE:GS NYSE:BAC check the diversified or regional cause they will yield X100 🤑🤑🤪😈😈😈 Id spot them out but i dont get credited enough for this shxxx so seek em out thats where the fun is Shortby Bekiumuzi_DubeUpdated 442
XLF downside to 28.50 over the next year?Why do I think XLF may be a potential short? There are many economic catalysts this year: The Fed is monitoring interest rates and may still make adjustments. Some market consensus tools suggest 1-3 rate cuts this year (of 0.25% each), while some sources suggest that the economy is still resilient, and rates need to still be increased. Regardless of that, rates have historically been cut when something has broken and they need to re-stimulate the economy. NY Community Bank has a fair amount of toxic assets on its books. While it had plenty of cash last year and was able to bail out other regional banks, it also holds an amount of commercial real estate debt, which was issued when interest rates were much lower. A large amount of it comes due this year, and now they may have difficulty servicing it. This is one example of how the bank defaults have not finished happening, and that last year was only a temporary solution. Many large companies have recently posted massive layoffs, between 5 and 15% depending on the company. Most of it is in the tech sector. However, this indicates a slowing economy (despite recent numbers looking very good), and companies are proactively cutting the fat to save money. If they cannot grow their margins by increasing revenue, then they will look to cut costs. Commercial real estate is also likely to see a number of failures, for similar reasons (and this ties into the above reason). The 10Y and 2Y interest rate yield curve is still inverted. Historically, once it uninverts, rates tend to rise rapidly and the equity market trends downward sharply. This is very likely to happen again (there was only one time in the US where this was not true), but whether this occurs in a month, in a year, or in a decade is anyone's guess. But it is still a potential catalyst. In light of the above reasons, one potential way to play the downside is to enter a bearish spread. I am choosing XLF specifically because it is a low volatility sector, which means that put contracts are much less expensive. Around the 31.00 level, we see support and resistance from around the year 2020, breaching it in 2021, and finding support throughout 2022; it is natural, then, that this acts as a pivot that can be broken through in a bear market. Using fibonnaci levels from the previous 2020 low to the all time high, we find the midpoint at 29.60, which is another possible level. Finally, using ATR and projecting the sqrt(ATR x N), we can estimate roughly where the price might fall by a certain date. From the previous ATH, this gives us a range of 26 to 56 (approximately). From the current closing price, we get 32 to 46. However, going two units away (solid teal line) brings this to 25 on the low side. This overlaps towards the one-unit low range from the previous ATH. If I had to pick a specific range for Jan 2025, I would estimate the bear case to be 27 to 29 dollars, based solely on market technicals.Shortby KyleBaran0
XLF breaking below a local demand line, rising top flat bottomRising top flat bottom channel. Two key support targets for downside. Technical analysis would suggest downside price action from here. RSI close to breaking below 50. Shortby DeadMoneyTrade0
XLF to sell off?Looking at XLF, we have had a good pump. Over the last few days the RSI has been burnt up and we are starting to see some bearish divergence as well as the price flattening. I would like to try to play this down to the green supply zone below, best of luck. It may keep ripping to the upper trend line shown. by The_Judge_Dredd1
Financials looking toppyNo position posting as someone requested. Notice price action peaked with vwmacd.. and is also showing bearish divergence. Again no position, only bank I would buy is NYSE:JPMby moneyflow_trader1
XLF- Economic update, Liquidity and Financials (chart heavy)J.C. Parets had a great post today identifying an 8 month high for AMEX:XLF financials and a break above its descending wedge. x.com This is a deeper dive into the technicals for the sector, beginning with a look at the broader economy and central bank liquidity. Economic outlook The economy remains resilient. Broad economic variables continue to expand. This chart monitors: Non-farm payrolls Consumption Household employment Real GDP Gross industrial output Real personal income less transfer payments Note that real GDP and real personal income have descended from their highs but remain strong. Liquidity is up There is a high correlation between expanding and contracting central bank liquidity and risk assets. We see risk assets drawdown on a lagged basis when central bank liquidity tightens quickly, and expand when central banks inject liquidity. The end of September saw liquidity tighten to its lowest level since 2020. Equities drew down to a local low 4 weeks later. Central bank liquidity has increased by $100B over the past week and $500B over the past two weeks. Risk assets are rallying in correlation. Note the XLF correlation with liquidity and with the S&P Sector rotation Sector leadership is beginning to shift. Over 13 periods, we can see Leading - Tech, discretionary, utilities, industrial, and financial Improving - Energy, staples, health care, materials Rotation within financials Looking at the rotation within financials we can see some predictable trends. When the market is fearful of the financials sector there is a rotation into $JPM. During recessions and market turbulence, JPM gains relative strength to the sector, regional banks, and other large US banks. This trend reverses during expansion. We can also see progression when we compare the recoveries of XLF, IAK insurance sector, and a cohort of 3 large fintech companies. The cohort of V, INTU, and FI advance first, followed by insurance, and then lagged by the broader financial sector. We observe a very consistent breakout among large influences to the sector with JPM, BRK.B and BLK. Game plan I'm looking for confirmation similar to what we saw with IAK and INTU. 65-70% of the time, we see breakouts of these formations retest the breakout area. From there I will look for opportunities between 38-39 to take profit. These align with the 1.618 and 2.0 extensions from the most recent retrace as well as a proportional movement from a measure within the pattern. The beauty of playing this pattern in this manner is that we can confidently set a tighter stop, as a full candle close back into the descending wedge will invalidate the opportunity. Longby Ben_1148x2113
XLF breaking out?XLF has had a pretty good month so far. Probably the worst sector is showing some signs of life despite issues with the banking system. This week XLF has poked its head above the triangle and the close was pretty good. Volume increased from last week as the down trendline was breached. Now, it is not a confirmed breakout yet as horizontal resistance is right above it and things are getting a bit overheated in the shorter time frames. It will be interesting to see how the pullback plays out. Markets are due for a nice pullback soon. If $31.5 - $32.5 area holds on the pullback then it might go off to finish the primary wave 5 sometime during the first half of 2024. This may also pull regional bank stocks that will benefit Russell and IWM. Longby mukit10
Financial XLF CrashLast week was a bearish engulfing candle on high volume so it will continue this week. After 3 days of drop, prices reversed to hit some stops then continued down with the trend. Target is Gap fill Shortby EliteTrader1010
XLF bullish buyBuy: 33.75 before 10/20/23 Stop loss: 33 Target: 35 (11/30/23) Longby KingTrader1234Updated 1
XLF very bearishHi traders XLF looks very bearish. Look at the daily candle from yesterday! No wicks. Bears are in a full control. Not expecting any short-term reversal on XLF yet. Lower highs shows an on-going bearish distribution. Once we get a mark-down phase, XLF can drop even 10 % from the current levels. Downtrending RSI confirms our bearish bias. The target for shorts / entry for longs area is shown on the chart. Good luckShortby vf_investmentUpdated 888
XLF - Looking Very WeakFinancials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line. A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower. Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short. With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest margins are being squeezed. Will we see another banking crisis? The last time we saw the XLF close below the weekly 50MA, we saw a quick 10% drop. by Trading-Capital0
XLFAnother rejection of the trendline and VWAP from ATH. Currently sitting on YTD VWAP. Another $31 test seems likely imo which would break the 200 sma. Can only bounce off that area so many times before it breaks through.Shortby Essendy0
Financials Could Be Breaking OutFinancials have been in the doghouse since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March, but now there could be signs of improvement. The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector ETF is the falling trendline that began early last year. XLF’s rally through July battled against that resistance. It pulled back in August but has now pushed through that line again. Is the downtrend finally ending? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in mid-August. That could also show a more bullish longer-term trend. Third, the August low around $33.60 represented a 50 percent retracement of the move between early June and late July. Does that confirm direction is skewed to the upside? Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector ETF 1-year: +4.02% 5-year: +21.36% 10-year: +117.73% Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .by TradeStation1110
The largest ETF focused on the financial sector, XLF, is indicatXLF's trajectory is akin to that of IWM, with the primary distinction being the emergence of a 'death hook' pattern on a notably larger chart. This amplification in scale should, in theory, enhance the pattern's precision. Compounding the challenges for this sector, the price has dropped below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) with apparent ease. This breach signifies a concerning lack of support from these key moving averages. Recent downgrades by Fitch and Standard & Poor's (S&P) of various banks are expected to exert a sustained negative influence on this sector. Furthermore, the financial sector faces issues tied to elevated interest rates and the persistently high yields of the 10-year Treasury note. Consequently, the sector's trajectory is likely to remain downward, potentially resulting in a breach of the lower trend line and triggering a substantial drop across the banking sector. It's essential to consider that despite favorable reports from individual companies like NVDA, the broader market's performance heavily relies on the strength of both smaller companies and financial institutions. A robust market tends to hinge on the vitality of the banking sector."Shortby Consistent_Trades0
XLFKeep an eye on XLF over the next few weeks. Breakout above the blue trend line would be bullish financials & ultimately the economy. Breakdown below $31 would be bearish imo.by Essendy1