Inflation has Peaked-Multi-decade resistance trendline unbroken
-Bearish divergence on the Wolfpack
-"Overbought" on the RSI
-Curling price action
Key data points
Last release
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Observation period
Apr 2024
Next release
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Forecast
—
Highest
10.90% on Feb 28, 1975
Lowest
0.30% on May 31, 2020
About United States Core CPI YoY
In the United States, the "core core" inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods excluding cost of food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks.
FED vs ECB Interest Rate DifferentialIn this chart you can see the interest rate differential for the FED versus the ECB.
I have outlined a possible scenario in rate cuts highlighting a bearish Euro/bullish US Dollar.
If the ECB will cut rates before the FED it will enlarge the differential, which is a bearish outlook for the Euro.
Inflation is not going to go awayI posted in March 2020 that we had likely seen a generational low in yields following the spike driven by Covid fears.
We are now STILL in the early innings of a generational (at least 20 years) BULL market for inflation and yields
Position accordingly over coming years
2024 inflation lower but 2026-2028 might be different trendnote: this is just precaution, a risk management, a bad scenario when happen, and know why it could happen
there an article in twitter posted by Kobeissiletter (the source of picture)
it making similar movement like stagflation which potentially could see a higher inflation later
but we are not in
CPI CORE RATE maybe a BOTTOM for now I am posting this so all can see the path of cpi based on the core rate No statement yet but it is good to share
Choosing Your Inflation Tracker: Core CPI or CPICore CPI vs CPI - Some say core CPI is a better benchmark compare to CPI data to track inflation.
Knowing which way CPI inflation is going, it will sharpen our investment decision?
If CPI inflation is still trending up, majority of stocks will be under pressure. However, there will be other sector
CPI tomorrowU.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow at 8:30am. If CPI comes in below 3% the stock market will rally strong. If the CPI print is an upside surprise the stock market will go red. If CPI comes in at 3.1% forecast the stock market will whipsaw and then go up.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost
I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discover
Will Jobs data have to suffer in order to get inflation down ?In the 80's it looks like it took very high interest rates to combat the high inflation in the 1980's. With the GOP looking into stopping Bidens spending habits we may possibly be ready for the unemployment to move up and our economy will do some suffering.
Still, Unemployment is low, and inflation
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