Goose96

Goose96

US stock indexes are falling off of their all-time highs which has seen the S&P fall below the 50-day MA support level at $5,125. A failed move back above the 50-day MA at $5,120 will see the index fall lower onto the 38.2% Fibo rate of $4,820.

Goose96

The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...

Goose96

If the support at 19.10 hold we will se a move higher towards 19.60. A break below the critical support of 18.97 will invalidate the idea.

Goose96 Updated 

A failed break below 19.10 will be an indication of a 5-wave impulse to 19.60. Critical support level remains on 18.97

Goose96 Updated 

The rand has been able to weather the storms of the broad-based stronger dollar thanks to the spike in precious metal prices however the rand did stumble at the back end of last week following the higher-than-expected US CPI print. The critical rates to watch on the USDZAR pair is the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 and the 200-day MA rate of 18.75. I expect the 200-day...

Goose96 Updated 

With the help of stronger commodity prices, the local unit is weathering the volatility storms ahead of the local elections. The rand has been able to keep the USDZAR pair below the critical rate of 18.97 which has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 200-day MA support of 18.75, despite the broad-based dollar strength. The pair however remains trapped in...

Goose96

Commodities are awakening from their slumber which is sparking renewed global inflation fears. Due to escalating global tensions, crude oil has surged more than 10% since the start of March which has seen the price per barrel close above $90 per barrel last week. Precious metals along with industrial metals have also benefitted from the rise in oil prices which...

Goose96

Gold is leading the gains in the basket of precious metals and it is only a matter of time before the rest of the metals follow and break higher. The move higher in precious metal prices is immensely rand positive but we will have to see platinum come to the party for sustained rand gains before the local elections. Platinum has broken above the 50-day and 200-day...

Goose96

UK Brent Crude is looking poised to climb higher to test the 2023 high of $95 per barrel. Technically, the commodity is overbought on the RSI indicator so a pullback and test of the blue support range around $87.50 seems like the next likely move. Additionally, the 50-day MA has now crossed above the 200-day MA which is another strong indicator for a sustained...

Goose96

The DXY is maintaining levels above the red trend line which now serves as a neckline support for the index. The cross of the 50-day above the 200-day MA is also bullish for the dollar along with the dampened rate cut expectations. A failed break below the 50-day and 200-day MA’s of 103.8 will allow the DXY to break above the 61.8% Fibo level towards 106. A...

Goose96 Updated 

The SARB will announce their latest repo rate on Thursday and expectations are for the SARB to leave rates unchanged at 8.25%. The SARB will lag the Fed when it comes to rate cuts so South Africans should, on a best case scenario, only expect rate cuts in the back-end of the year. The SARB will not cut rates until the Fed has started cutting rates. The rand...

Goose96

The DXY is currently testing the major red downward trend line. A break above this trend line will allow the index to re-test the 61.8% Fibo rate of 104.78. It is extremely difficult to call the FX markets now but the 50-day MA looks set to cross above the 200-day MA which will be a bullish golden cross indicator. I believe the dollar will continue to gain until...

Goose96

The pair has climbed back into the blue wedge after finding support on the Feb 2024 low of 18.53. 18.97 is the rate to watch. A break above will allow the pair to test the top-end of the wedge again, resistance at 19.20. On the other hand, if the rand manages to hold the pair below 18.97 after the Fed decision to leave rates unchanged, it will allow the rand to...

Goose96

The rand may be on the ropes today if it can't break below 18.78. Fed pause is also expected to shake things up and support the recent dollar strength.

Goose96

The top side of the wedge held its ground and the break below the 61.8% Fibo at 19.87 has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50- and 200-day MA. There is strong support levels at 19.75 and 19.67 and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls print will determine whether this is the long awaited break-out of the blue wedge or a fake-out. A weaker than expected NFP...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand had a tough week at the office following the budget speech which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a 4-month high of 19.40. The pair is now testing the downward blue trend line which forms the blue wedge pattern in place since 2Q2023. A break above this trend line would see the rand fold to 19.63 and possibly higher towards the all-time highs of 19.94. The...

Goose96

S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded fresh all-time highs last week. Again, is it necessary for the Fed to cut rates given the strong performance in US indices and steady US data as of late? There is however strong divergence on the RSI which could be an early sign for a pull back on to the 50-day MA of $4,850. The US GDP results for the 4Q2023 is expected to show a...

Goose96

The DXY recorded its first weekly loss for the year last week as the major red downward trendline and the 61.8 Fibo retracement rate of 104.80 held its ground. The DXY is currently sitting on the 200-day MA level of 103.73 and it will most likely test levels below this rate this week with the US GDP and US PCE prints on the schedule for this week. A failed break...