Robert077

Robert077

1. Stocks are fundamentally overvalued. 2. The macro (yield curve and unemployment rate) I'm monitoring is at its peak/low and could be at potential turning point. 3. We need technical analysis to enter this trade and time the short if there is any at all. These are some extremes I'm looking for that can either enrich you if you're right or make you poor if you...

Robert077

First pane is SPX, no explanation needed here. Second pane is ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield (Performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market). Usually when it hits numbers above 9+ market is oversold and 10-week breadth/momentum indicator is awful. Now, that is not the...

Robert077

What's happening? 1. -363.3K CFTC S&P 500 spec. net positions(highest in years, on October 2008 it was -365,697) 2. VIX 15.77 (52-week low) 3. DXY 101.672 (near 52week-low) 4. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)-1.66 (lowest ever) 5. AAII sentiment 4/26/2023 Bullish 24.1% Neutral 37.4% Bearish 38.5% 6. BTC = +76%...

Robert077

Has SP500 really bottomed? This could be inverse head and shoulders chart pattern if I'm seeing it right. :-) There are set ups, market sentiment has improved, FTD day - check, net highs and lows positive, some stock got clobbered during this correction, no one believes this is beginning of new bull market (me neither, but technicals point that we might just have...

Robert077 Updated 

As always, everything is possible. Just some important levels on chart for you to have in mind. Short term and medium term uptrend, long term downtrend. If we break the trendline I believe this rally could catch some further steam. Risk here comes from trendline and 200 MA resistance. If we secure price above VCOP, this could be low risk trade to the upside...

Robert077

No one knows what will happen, but so far this is textbook accumulation pattern according to Wyckoff. Spring next??

Robert077

In all of 2022. market rallied after FOMC meeting just to go lower shortly afterwards. Only on 16th march it went lower straight away. My base case is market just go lower fading the summer rally move all the way and finding support somewhere around 269 (PT 1, june 22. low) or 237 (PT2, precovid high). Second case is retest of vopc, roughly 312. and than...