Global indices are are not supporting this recent break to new all time highs (by the American indices). This is a negative divergence which is a warning sign as per historic signals.
The overall setup of the markets as combined with the vaccine stocks rallying is a very ominous sign. This could mean lockdowns could be coming back this summer due to bird flu. Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice to buy/ sell any instrument; just my speculation.
Even though the SPX has broken to new all time highs (led by the nasdaq), it is not being supported by the internals. This might quite likely be a false breakout.
I have analyzed the SPX using 2 common indicators; i.e. RSI and breadth above 200d SMA. A very similar setup was seen just before the 2018 correction and the 2020 crash. This recent rally of past 5 months is bigger and more irrational than the previous two rallies. Thus, we should expect a bigger move down over the long-term.
Pfizer looks ripe for a bullish breakout so expect a catalyst to show up VERY SOON. "charts predict the news
I have looked at the charts of Moderna and explained why I'm so bullish this stock as well as the general sector. We should expect a catalyst show up in the news in the very near future which should cause a big spike in this sector and that cannot be good for the overall market.
I've shown multiple rallies over the years as a comparison to the current rally. Currently, this rally has been 25% in 18 weeks which is clearly the biggest in the past 12 years and most likely in history.
I've taken a look at multiple asset classes; i.e. global indices, crypto & gold which are all rallying into a cycle week. Further, all global indices are extremely overbought which increases the likelihood of a turn around. This signal is extremely rare and if everything is turning downward from here, the catalyst will be a PRETTY BIG DEAL. As always, charts...
I've used 3 indicators, namely, MACD, RSI & BB width to show the idea of momentum building up in the background. If VIX spikes that's definitely not a good thing for the markets. Volatility is a mean reverting animal so its just simple statistics that a big spike is coming. TIMEFRAME: If vix starts to pop this week, the rally could end 3-4 weeks from now.
Usually, you want a bull market to have breadth but on occasion things get quite over extended and even the weak stocks start to run. This is reflected in the market breadth and when it gets too high, it's time to start preparing for a correction
In this video I've done an analysis using bollinger bands combined with RSI to emphasize how extreme this recent rally has been. It surely seems like this rally will run out of gas VERY SOON
SPY seems to be following an approximate 8 week cycle which has consistently marked turning points. This rally is heading straight into a cycle week so a major top could be forming right now.
The analysis done here shows extreme complacency in the market which is indicating a top could be forming. When everyone is bullish you have to be worried.
In this video, I've shown a potential repeat of last year when the bear market had begun. It is common to see fractals play out in the stock market so I have shown why I believe that's the case.
MRNA is far too oversold and beaten down. I've shown past 4 examples of selloffs and the rally that follows. Expecting a 40%+ rally from CMP over the next 2-3 weeks
2 independent cycles for the SPY have converged this past week which indicates a high probability of a top forming. Please watch the video for details.
In this video, I've shown a convergence of different markets which indicates that a major top has formed last week and a selloff has just begun. Usually, when all indices fall together its due to a major global catalyst.
The setup shown in this video is very bullish for vaccine stocks. It appears like covid is going to be the next catalyst to pull down the market which makes the vaccine stocks clear beneficiaries.