xtrader1

xtrader1

- Based on Next Forward Contract - Bullish on Dollar in coming weeks - S&D: Previous Imbalance is current Demand Zone - Wyckoff: accumulation pattern unfolding - Pivots: Monthly M2 to Monthly M4 = Previous Year Open = Target - Looking for downwards pressure on Majors in coming weeks

xtrader1

WTI is gathering stops above the range Looking for CPI volatility (Dollar higher ?) to provide excuse to hit stops and drop lower Daily imbalance in the current range as (first ?) downside target (75.00)

xtrader1

- Looking for some up before more down - Fill in imbalance to the upside - Then a drop to previous support = 50% of 2023 upmove - If support gets broken, more downside is to be expected

xtrader1

RELATIVE STRENGTH: - EUR was strong but now weakening on the HTF - AUD was weak but now strengthening on the HTF SEASONAL: - EURAUD is seasonally suppose to be weak in JAN + FEB - Weakness is a little delayed - Probably weakness will continue into MAR VOLUME: - High volume nodes in EURO Future define resistance and support - Resistance level created mid DEC -...

xtrader1 Updated 

COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be...

xtrader1 Updated 

- Gold strength in synch with Dollar-weakness - 2022 distribution-pattern seems completed - M (double top) follwed by 3 impulses lower done - Q4-22 started with W-pattern follwed by first impulse up - Rotation higher is in line with seasonal expectations (strength in NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB) - COT: Institutions are accumulating longs while distributiing shorts, this is...

xtrader1

- Price wicked up to Previous Week Open - Now broken lower out of wedge on High Volume - Price is at Monthly Pivot begin of Month - Looking for a drop to Monthly S2 = 80.00 - Looks ready to drop next week

xtrader1

COT: - Non-Commercial Positions as of 28-1-23 - JPY inverted (down = less shorts) COT JPY (YELLOW): - Moving less short since mid OCT-22 - JPY COT dictates CADJPY price since mid OCT COT CAD (PURPLE): - CAD moving more short since AUG-22 - CAD sideways since begin JAN-23 - Early indication that CAD is recovering from weakness across the board? TARGETS: -...

xtrader1

USDCAD D1 28-1-23 = SD + PP + GAPS - Seasonally FEB/MAR/APR should be bullish - COT however is in favor of lower prices - Technically it looks very bearish - Lower Highs > Lower Lows on HTF - Pivots: Price started the Quarterly at QPP, now moving to QS1 = 1.3250 - 1.3250 = QS1 = Demand-Zone = GAP = Imbalance = 50% Upswing / very likely to be hit - 1.3000 =...

xtrader1 Updated 

- Seasonally USD is weak in DEC - COT: Asset Managers in charge of Dollar pricing - COT: Asset Managers in distribution-mode since SEP above 110.00 - S&D: 100.00 is Weekly demand-zone offering liquidity to buy back shorts - COT: images2.imgbox.com

xtrader1

Looking for a drop to 1.30 big figure COT: Looks like Institutional switching from acc. to dist. CAD shorts COT: USD longs in dist. mode since Q4-22 COT: Both developments spell more downside for USDCAD Pivots: Q1-23 starts with selling the Qarterly Pivot Pivots this predicts Quarterly S2 TA: Daily downtrend evolving with a HH > HL > HH > HL...

xtrader1

Looks like EURUSD is heading for 1.1250: 1500 Pip Seasonal run from 0.975 to 1.1250 Dollar is weak(ening, looking for USDX to drop below 100 While Dollar in weakening-mode EURUSD is going strong COT Longs: Institutional Investors accelerated their long position COT Shorts: Institutional Investors pauzed their short position

xtrader1

Expect lower prices based on: Seasonality (JAN/FEB down) Pivots )Monthly Pivot to Monthly S2) COT (EUR doWn, AUD up) Techicals (Break of Structure, Lower High) Relative Strength (EUR weaker, AUD stronger) 1.5000 as downside target for Q1

xtrader1

Looking for a drop from Monthly Pivot to Monthly S2 in JAN

xtrader1

Monetary Policy: - BOJ is making a significant change - Longterm YieldCurveControl target of 0,25% is relaxed to 0.50% - Higher targets are to be considered - This would mean more YEN-strength - FED still hiking rates, but expected target-rate for 2023 is moderate: 4,75% - 5.00% COT: - Institutions started distributing USD-Longs since Q3-22 - Insititutions...

xtrader1

- SEP FOMC meetings pivotal post-Covid ACCUMULATION: - From FOMC SEP 2020 until FOMC SEP 2021 price was accumulating in a range - From FOMC SEP 2021 until FOMC SEP 2022 price was trending up MARK UP: - Trend progressed in 3 COT-stages: 1. Re-accumulation (Large COT increase while price remains relatively depressed) 2. Mark Up (Limited COT increase while...

xtrader1

- 2020: 1 Year of accumulating SHORTS, LONGS used to depress price - Q2-21: Distributing SHORTS while Accumulating LONGS - Take profit on SHORTS, use profits to to accumumate LONGS - Take some profits on LONGS to consolidate price - 2021: Accumulating LONGS (3 impulses) - 2022: Q2+Q3 = Mark up price, Q4 = Distributing LONGS - COT indicates that more LONGS need to...

xtrader1

- Institutional actions preceed price in past 2 years - COT is inverted to better show correlation between shorts and price - 2021 was consolidation phase where institutions accumulated shorts - First 9 months of 2022 was mark down phase - Driving price to a level where shorts could be distributed with a healthy profit - Last quarter of 2022 was profit-taking...