Bitcoin: 27.5K Resistance In Play.

Bitcoin continues to respect the 27,500 area resistance. IF this continues, it suggests that a more bearish scenario is likely to unfold over the next week or two (see drawing on chart). Based on recent price structure, price can potentially test the 25K support area yet again.

What I described here is context. Add to that the recent lows on bond prices, and it is the recipe for a slow, conflicted environment at least for the short term. This is all while the broader trend can still be considered bullish (as long as 25K holds). Trades between the 27K and 25K area require a lot of attention since follow through is very limited.

The good news is that over the next month, retail volume should increase back to levels where momentum more likely to follow through. If trends are going to develop or persist on the larger time frames, this would be the beginning of the season.

To trade in this environment, having a some kind of system can't be emphasized enough. Waiting for "action", reacting to news or trying to interpret patterns without the help of automation is growing more ineffective as time goes on. The reason? You do not realize that the majority of the time you are up against algos, and algos are rational. This fact further confirms Efficient Markets which posits that markets are generally random and that you can't consistently beat a market through conventional means. No one talks about this because it refutes their gimmicks.

While having a system does not guarantee you can beat a market, it does help improve your chances because it minimizes "You" from the equation. For example, while the Bitcoin context is currently bearish, there is NO reason (based on my system) to go short yet. Meanwhile many traders will jump in for the fear of missing out. Having a set of criteria that is automatically identified every time helps to avoid such emotional decision making.

To compete in the markets of the future, automation in some form will be required. This is why I developed my trade scanner and continue to refine it. While it is not perfect (nothing is) it at least calls my attention when it's warranted. From there I can focus on what is MORE important: assessing the bigger picture (context) and then decide if the idea is worth taking or not.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.