Bitcoin: Long Setup 42,250.

Bitcoin holds 40K support which means broader trend continues to be bullish. One more push into the 45K resistance area is likely during the week ahead. This push can be a minor B Wave, which means potential is limited and expectations should be LOW for longs. If the 42,250 high is cleared, a new swing trade long signal will be in effect. On the other hand, IF 40K breaks, the broader trend becomes questionable, and a more bearish scenario would be more likely to follow.

The recent corrective move from 49K to 40K MAY be the initial leg of the monthly C Wave that I have been pointing out for weeks. An argument that would further support this idea is IF price breaks 40K with conviction. Such an event calls for an ADJUSTMENT in longer term expectations. This means if this scenario unfolds, the 30 to 35K support AREA becomes the next location to anticipate buying activity. Keep in mind such a scenario can take MONTHS to play out.

On the bullish side, we can argue that the 40K support is still intact. Buy signals are still in favor and have some potential (defined by 45K resistance area). This means once the 42,250 high breaks, bullish momentum may be worth a thousand points at least. This can be worthwhile for day trades or swing trades BUT expecting anything more than that means dramatically increased RISK. Don't get fooled by all the "expert" talk on the internet. What occurred 5 years ago etc does NOT mean it will occur again (halving nonsense).

Expecting more means you expose yourself to the potential Wave C (monthly) playing out which can take price back to levels not expected by any "experts". Keep in mind markets are HIGHLY random and can do whatever they want. Don't search for reasons, you are wasting your energy. Price adjusts to the perception of new information, and an unexpected news item can come out of no where.

The point of analysis is to narrow the range of outcomes (bullish, bearish, range) and then use that information to anticipate price behavior relative to our chosen strategy. For example, a day trader will not use this information the same way a swing trader would.

Retail traders are usually all caught up with being "RIGHT" and "THINKING" they know what will happen next. The correct mindset is a passive one, the market leads and we FOLLOW which means we don't THINK, instead we ADJUST to new information constantly.

All you need to know (and know really well) are TWO components: Trend and relative support/resistance levels. If you understand how price is likely to behave within these components, you will be better informed than 99% of retail traders/investors.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.