BTC potential IH$S - If 60k bounce: 71k target

BTCUSDT 4H Analysis

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

TL;DR BTC continues moving downwards towards the 60k mark. A bounce there would validate the IH&S pattern and open the way for a W3 to 71k.

• We have a lot of confluence:
  
• On top of being the right shoulder of the IH&S pattern, a retrace to 60k would be 0.618 fib of the last leg up
  
• We are seeing some support from the 50VWMA (yellow), very close to the 60k mark (currently 60.7k)
  
• TD Sequential just printed a perfect Buy Setup (red M9), indicating a potential reversal. You can see on the chart how accurate its previous signals have been
  
• RSI is nearly oversold (currently ~35)
  
• Both the MACD and its signal line are in the negative. Once we have a crossover, the further below 0 it happens, the stronger the reversal confirmation will be
  

Comment:

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

TL;DR This could be a huge week for #BTC.
Elliot Waves + IH&S playing out perfectly so far. W3 short term target to $71k, W5 target could be new ATH.

• The IH&S we spotted 2 weeks ago is still playing out perfectly, we broke the neckline with a high volume candle and the W3 target is still $71k.
  
• The current supports are the right shoulder LH ($65.5k) and the 50-day VWMA ( 65K , yellow line).
  
• The current resistance is the left shoulder LH and 1.236 fib of W1 ($67.5k), if broken the next stop is $71k.
  
• If Elliot Waves keep playing out, after W3 to $71k, we can expect a W4 retrace to the $66.5 - $65.5 area, followed by a W5 to ATH or above. (~$74k)
  
• The daily RSI is sitting at a comfortable 58, which should allow plenty of room for these moves.
  

Comment:

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

TL;DR If the local bottom is in above $66k, W5 target will be between $73.3k and $75.5k 🎯

• BTC is showing a textbook Elliot Impulse Wave since the IH&S head at 56k. All the rules and typical fibonacci retracement levels have been respected with very high precision.
  
• If the bottom of the recent retrace is in at $66.3k, it would match almost perfectly W4 typical behavior (0.5 fib of W3). This would hold true even with a continuation of the dip to 66k.
  
• W5 is typically inverse 1.236 – 1.618 of W4, placing our target between $73.3k and $75.5k (ATH or above).
  
• If all the above conditions are met and we reach the W5 target, we can expect a three wave correction to follow.
  

Comment:

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

TL;DR F&P with $94k target

🎯 My short term targets for #BTC are still 73.3k-75.5k, followed by a potential 3-wave correction

⛳️ Zooming out a little though, I see a beautiful Bull Flag & Pole pattern with a $94k target

The following would still fit perfectly with my short term target, assuming a breakout happens soon:

1. BTC to 73.3k-75.5k
   
2. 3-wave correction to the 70k area and retest of the resistance 🟠 as support
   
3. Continuation towards $94k
   

Take it with a grain of salt as targets will change depending on when we the breakout happens 🧂