High Liklihood of 35% Correction -- Bitcoin USD
Using the strength of various trends and levels in the chart, I'd expect a retest of the shallow upper purple trendline in 1-4 days before a severe correction. Exit near the test of said trend line, or after the short-lived bounce if the current trend line breaks down, whichever comes first.
Unfortunately, the analysis is fairly advanced and cannot be explained thoroughly in a few paragraphs. Suffice it to say that the current trend should be strong enough to propel the move past the 2 smaller overhead trends (green and blue), running out of steam at the upper purple trend. At which point selling pressure should eventually overwhelm the move leading to a break of the blue trend, which will cause selling to push the move through the first yellow dashed line, to hit the yellow solid line. The solid line should allow for some support and a bounce to test the dashed line--this bounce should fail, after which price should descend with increasing rapidity to the target zones.
Unfortunately, the analysis is fairly advanced and cannot be explained thoroughly in a few paragraphs. Suffice it to say that the current trend should be strong enough to propel the move past the 2 smaller overhead trends (green and blue), running out of steam at the upper purple trend. At which point selling pressure should eventually overwhelm the move leading to a break of the blue trend, which will cause selling to push the move through the first yellow dashed line, to hit the yellow solid line. The solid line should allow for some support and a bounce to test the dashed line--this bounce should fail, after which price should descend with increasing rapidity to the target zones.
Trade closed manually:
Let's recap where we are:
The larger blue trend was strong enough to break the smaller green trend up top, fueling the move to the smaller blue trend. It was not, however strong enough to break this trend (as I expected it would), and BTC immediately sold off to the solid yellow line (as described). This sent it back to the dashed yellow line (as described). However, a new (orange) trend was created in this process which (along with fairly certain rejection of the dashed yellow line) has caused a further decline to the first possible target (not mentioned in my above analysis) of roughly 50K.
Given the volume coming in and buying this dip, plus the rapidity with which the move occurred--I was expecting reaching a bit higher which would have resulted in a bigger panic...I'm closing this trade in a profit. I thing this correction will be contained to the first target zone--if not the 50K level
The larger blue trend was strong enough to break the smaller green trend up top, fueling the move to the smaller blue trend. It was not, however strong enough to break this trend (as I expected it would), and BTC immediately sold off to the solid yellow line (as described). This sent it back to the dashed yellow line (as described). However, a new (orange) trend was created in this process which (along with fairly certain rejection of the dashed yellow line) has caused a further decline to the first possible target (not mentioned in my above analysis) of roughly 50K.
Given the volume coming in and buying this dip, plus the rapidity with which the move occurred--I was expecting reaching a bit higher which would have resulted in a bigger panic...I'm closing this trade in a profit. I thing this correction will be contained to the first target zone--if not the 50K level
