Nifty Short, Medium, Long Term 20-May-24 to 24-May-24
Nifty closed at 22502 (22055) and touched low & high of 21836 & 22514
Nifty was up from the support level.
RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week (56 % & 69% Respectively). Both are moving up towards oversold zone.
Nifty 22502- Short & medium term (Neutral till it cross 22820 decisively)
As mentioned in the past 1.5 month, nifty reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again, formed a 'W' pattern. ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 which need be crossed decisively. Nifty at PE 21.5 below the Historical Average of 22.5, only Political results is awaited which will give a clear direction.
Short term support 22312 (MA 50)- Nifty last week had a pause between 2220-22300/ 22050 ( Trend Line Support as shown) /21800
Medium term Support - 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) &
Support at 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance).
All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks.
Nifty bank 48199(47421) - Nifty bank tested trend line support 47000 last week and later part of the week. Many bank & Finance stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well.
Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quantities till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results.
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.ifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24
every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
Nifty closed at 22502 (22055) and touched low & high of 21836 & 22514
Nifty was up from the support level.
RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week (56 % & 69% Respectively). Both are moving up towards oversold zone.
Nifty 22502- Short & medium term (Neutral till it cross 22820 decisively)
As mentioned in the past 1.5 month, nifty reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again, formed a 'W' pattern. ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 which need be crossed decisively. Nifty at PE 21.5 below the Historical Average of 22.5, only Political results is awaited which will give a clear direction.
Short term support 22312 (MA 50)- Nifty last week had a pause between 2220-22300/ 22050 ( Trend Line Support as shown) /21800
Medium term Support - 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) &
Support at 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance).
All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks.
Nifty bank 48199(47421) - Nifty bank tested trend line support 47000 last week and later part of the week. Many bank & Finance stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well.
Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quantities till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results.
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.ifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24
every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
