A Decade Review of the S&P500 (SPX): Market Milestones

Hello Traders and Investors! Here I show a clear overview of the bumpy ride we had over the past decade in the stock market. The leading indicator for our index is the SNP500. We are entering possibly another rocky ride with the current elections, but there is one thing that we can learn from history: we should always be calm, disciplined, collected, and most importantly, buying the dips.

2009 Bull Market vs. History
The 2009-2019 bull run topped the nearly 10-year bull run of the 1990s. The bull run that started in Oct. 1990 and lasted 113 months, while the 2009 bull run is going on 127 months! Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven years, and it was the post-World War II run that started in 1949. In terms of returns, the 2009 bull market has the longest streak but it remains in second in terms of the best return. The 2009 bull market has generated a 330% return since the March 2009 low. The bull market of the 1990s saw the S&P 500 post a 417% return over its nearly nine and a half years. Meanwhile, the bull market following the Great Depression is close behind our current bull market. The Great Depression bull market started in June 1932, lasting 57 months, with the S&P 500 posting a 325% gain over that time. The most important thing is, all bull markets have given great returns.

Major Moves of This Bull Market
Some of the biggest and scariest drops during this recent bull market have been attributed simply to surging investor fear. This includes the 2011 anxieties over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis. It also includes the most recent market plummet in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of this massive drop was caused by fears of a global economic slowdown, a U.S.-China trade war, and rising U.S. interest rates. We also had the unexpected event of COVID19, which brought us down to severe lows in a short amount of time - yet was followed by an unexpected 100%, and ultimately led to ATHs.

What's Next for the Bull Market (Elections?)
The big question now, of course, is whether this 10-year rally will continue. Bull markets end with recessions, and while we've seen many bumps on the road to where we are now, the stock market has managed to recover (at least eventually) each and every time - including the current COVID19 case. There will always be serious risk factors and fears that pervade markets. Whatever happens, the most important thing is, there can always be firsts. History is never indicative of present action, but we can see rhymes. The major rhyme here is that that the stock market has continuously gone up over the past century. Late in 2018 was a rather severe example of this. But we don't believe this bull market, though it's been exceptionally long, has run its course just yet. Many economists still see growth in the economy and aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon. Unemployment continues to fall and the recent corporate tax rate cuts can help keep spending elevated - especially with either Biden or Trump entering the picture.

For more information on presidential elections, check out my previous post on the past election cycles that had an effect on price:


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