So, SPY has reached the first target on the 3 month and its inches from snagging that 495 high prob.
Great for me because I have been patiently long awaiting this exact position, and now we are inches from profit taking.
Bad because, if we remove it, there are, currently, no bullish high probs to give us that high confidence of upside.
So what will happen?
I can forsee 2 possible outcomes here. With FOMC just around the corner, here are the possibilities. I will start with the one that I opine to be the most likely, but keep in mind its just my opinion:
1. (Most likely) We snag the 495 high prob tomorrow or before FOMC OR we snag it with the initial FOMC release which would cause a pulse up. From there, we actually begin some pullback.
The evidence that signals we may see some more profound pullback this week is the high prob on SPX:
2. We stagnate and then tank/pullback on FOMC, leaving 495 unreached. We could see profound pullback or just slight pullback, back to the weekly conditionals on SPX (where the high prob is). This would be a fine setup because it leaves that magnant 495 up above and we can continue buying the dips.
I somewhat prefer the 2nd because then it just gives us a reason to continue with the bullish bias until its removed. However, I do think it t obe the less likely.
The concern is once we remove this 495 there is nothing else pulling us up. So we will be left to our own devices to figure out what's next. At least, outside of the monthly and weekly targets.
But we will see what happens tomorrow and on FOMC.
I will add, I will close my position on 495, that was my target. I do believe we should see 500 on SPY, just a psychological level, but i have no objective evidence to back that, its just another opinion. The math said 495 and so 495 will be the target I close out on.
I will need to take another look at the ARIMA annual levels as well to sort of situate where we head to next, but that can be for a follow up idea. As of now, for this week, these are the things I would watch!
Safe trades everyone!
Great for me because I have been patiently long awaiting this exact position, and now we are inches from profit taking.
Bad because, if we remove it, there are, currently, no bullish high probs to give us that high confidence of upside.
So what will happen?
I can forsee 2 possible outcomes here. With FOMC just around the corner, here are the possibilities. I will start with the one that I opine to be the most likely, but keep in mind its just my opinion:
1. (Most likely) We snag the 495 high prob tomorrow or before FOMC OR we snag it with the initial FOMC release which would cause a pulse up. From there, we actually begin some pullback.
The evidence that signals we may see some more profound pullback this week is the high prob on SPX:
2. We stagnate and then tank/pullback on FOMC, leaving 495 unreached. We could see profound pullback or just slight pullback, back to the weekly conditionals on SPX (where the high prob is). This would be a fine setup because it leaves that magnant 495 up above and we can continue buying the dips.
I somewhat prefer the 2nd because then it just gives us a reason to continue with the bullish bias until its removed. However, I do think it t obe the less likely.
The concern is once we remove this 495 there is nothing else pulling us up. So we will be left to our own devices to figure out what's next. At least, outside of the monthly and weekly targets.
But we will see what happens tomorrow and on FOMC.
I will add, I will close my position on 495, that was my target. I do believe we should see 500 on SPY, just a psychological level, but i have no objective evidence to back that, its just another opinion. The math said 495 and so 495 will be the target I close out on.
I will need to take another look at the ARIMA annual levels as well to sort of situate where we head to next, but that can be for a follow up idea. As of now, for this week, these are the things I would watch!
Safe trades everyone!
Comment:
Still just patiently waiting for 495.
Nothing's really changed, we didn't go through the expected trajectory but we did hit my preferred outcome.
Now its just a continued waiting game.
With the positive earnings we saw this evening, I suspect we will see the target sooner than later.
Safe trades!
Nothing's really changed, we didn't go through the expected trajectory but we did hit my preferred outcome.
Now its just a continued waiting game.
With the positive earnings we saw this evening, I suspect we will see the target sooner than later.
Safe trades!
Trade closed: target reached:
495 reached!
Will assess over the weekend and see what the next move is.
495 reached!
Will assess over the weekend and see what the next move is.
Comment:
Oh to clarify i ma out of longs.
Though looking at the chart I suspect continuation up is the answer. Probably right to 499/500.
Though looking at the chart I suspect continuation up is the answer. Probably right to 499/500.
Comment:
Started a small short position before close.
Will update over the weekend!
Started a small short position before close.
Will update over the weekend!
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Choppy market today.
I re-referenced my SPY 2024 post, available here:
And yeah, oh god, the ARIMA 95% confidence on the year is over 600. Which means plenty more upside is possible.
I also forgot to make mention on the annual targets. The annual high targets on SPY are all over 500, so there is reason to believe we continue up to those targets. Here is a little snapshot of where we are on the year:
Experiencing some resistance at the bullish condition on the year.
But yeah, lots of upside room is the moral of this story.
Let's see what happens tomorrow, as for today, market is pretty choppy, I traded the open because I suspected it would be more on the choppy side, and will sit the remainder out.
Be safe and take care! Will catch up later!