Similar to 2016 dipbased on uptrend length since 2022 bottom we are at a point comparable to the 2016 dip coming out of the 2015 bottom. Price might wick to 50k and bounce back to 60k fast so I would bid around 51 now.by Theta-Digital0
With BTC Close To All-Time-High, Here's The Bull and Bear of ItHey Tradingview. As my posts have really become sparse, I tend to only write when something pretty significant occurs. Right now, Bitcoin has made it all the way from $15.5k, back up close to its all-time-high from 2021. That's a pretty substantial feat. What it proves is that if a thing exists that can make money, people will buy it. Even if I write a ridiculously bearish doom post, I usually provide the bullish alternative. You can see this in my last major Bitcoin post: Even when I was mostly bearish throughout 2022 and 2023, I've made some long posts here and there, detailing why price could go against my bias. In this post, I put the short label because I'd rather be right if it drops heavily than if it goes up a lot more. That's just an ego thing. Clearly, against my expectations, Bitcoin ETF's have been successful, and have ushered in what appears to be a major bullish impulse. As I've stated, I don't think that means anything encouraging about society. But, what's good for society and culture is not necessarily what makes money. That's something one learns pretty early on in adulthood. Anyway, you can read up on my bearish fundamental stance on Bitcoin on my page. As I was once fundamentally bullish on the asset, you can even watch as my opinion shifted over time. This page is really an interesting place. Anyway, here's the bull and bear of it right now. On the bull side, volume looks decent in spot markets. Price has managed to reclaim a very important long term trendline lose in 2022, as shown on the chart above. Price also appears to have gone parabolic, meaning it has not tested any major daily moving averages in some time, as price appears to go up in an almost straight line. This kind of price action can keep going much longer than short sellers are prepared for. It can also end in mere minutes, punishing top longs. Looking at the shorter-term chart, Bitcoin fell out of its last bullish channel, but that didn't seem to matter at all. Price keeps pushing higher, bull flag after bull flag. Here's the bear of it: Bitcoin active addresses continue to stagnate near 2017 high levels. studio.glassnode.com That's weird, right? You'd expect with countries "adopting" it and with new ETFs there would at least be some meaningful increase. Bitcoin is being stored by a few wealthy entities and individuals. It is very unlikely to end up in the hands of the everyday person. Again, this is one of the primary reasons I am against Bitcoin. My opinion on that is unlikely to change, regardless of price. I simply don't think Michael Saylor, for instance, is going to get out of his assymetric bet unscathed. Additionally, open interest (primarily long interest) is extremely high. In fact, it's really on par with price, which is something that happened in 2022. This may not matter so much with ETFs on the market, but it could at least cause some volatility as traders need to be knocked out of their positions. Looking at the shorter term chart, it seems bulls might want to be careful here. There are a lot of sellers in this range, which is not surprising at all. What also wouldn't be surprising is a touch of the all-time-high, at $69k. My guess is a LOT of traders are ready for a tap on that number, and that it's not going to be that easy. It does really look like another bull flag, but volume tells me that the likelihood of a fakeout to new highs is fairly high. I'm still in a low-risk short, but stopped adding at $52k. I may close it out at the start of next week - I do think the likelihood of at least a quick flush towards weekly MA support exists. But who knows? Regardless - position size is important here. There's no leverage for me. I'm not going to be completely rekt if price keeps going up. BUT I would like to minimize further losses, and I don't want to be trapped in this position if Bitcoin goes to $90K or higher. As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. Let's see what happens! Thanks for reading. -Victor Cobra Shortby VictorCobraUpdated 117
BTC Macro CyclesOverview of previous macro cycles. Repeatedly going from all time high to golden ratio 1.618 of previous cycle peak, and peaked around 2.272 in the new cycle. Now finding support at 1.618.Longby Jarkkko1
one, two, three... will the cross happen along with the halvingHi All Been a long 2 years. Can we have few more months for "stacking" before the substantial move upwards? What do you think? Thnx jadby Jad-87Updated 5
PI-Cycle-Top-Indicator And 2YMA Is All I NeedI Will Sell When BTC Touches 2YMA (Black Lines) And The PI-Cycle-Indicator Marks The Cycle-Top. Pi-Cycle-Top Will Trigger When The Red Line Crosses The Blue Blue. Is It That Simple? Why Not?Longby xdeltax0
BTCUSD shortterm: cloudy but calm, with chance of meatballs.Disclaimer: It's been really hard to count the waves since the start of 2023, not helped by erratic political and geopolitical movements. These counts are based on super-basic Elliot Wave rules: - 5 wave movements (3 impulses, 2 correctives) - Wave 2 is never a triangle, often retraces 61.8% - Wave 3 is never the shortest, often the longest - Wave 4 is opp in nature of Wave 2 (impulse vs triangle) - Wave 5 tend to see hidden divergences The tension that I have with these counts is that I have not yet seen a 'proper' macro 2nd wave retracement of 61.8%. While it is customary with Elliot Wave counts, however, it is not always necessary, even if I opine for it. Could we go straight to $100k or $200k from here? Perhaps. Of course, the probability is always there (with crypto you never know~), cautious optimism dictates that we need a breather ever since we rallied through 2023, from 2022's bear market. While the price has been sideways for 1.x months, it plays out as a bullish pennant, a sign of accumulation. And there isn't a clear indication of a bearish divergence either. Heck, it's not even oversold (RSI) territories yet. So I'm inclined to see a few more rallies before market sentiment truly shifts to doom and gloom. Again, cautious optimism, because there are still curveballs on the horizon -- a meaty concoction of geopolitical tensions with US politics and financial policies to fully iron out. We could just be approaching the calm before the storm. by googooboyy0
BTC The bull marketHello, everyone! Lately, the crypto world has been buzzing with events, and you've probably heard about the latest news from dozens of Telegram channels. Against this backdrop, I've decided to refresh my idea regarding cycles based on the Bitcoin halving principle. In my opinion, we've completed the distribution phase and are entering a new phase that everyone has been eagerly awaiting - the bull market phase. I'd like to delve deeper into this phase. The bull market phase is the time when cryptocurrencies show the most significant growth, including Bitcoin itself. According to statistics, this phase lasts on average from 350 to 500 days. Based on my calculations, we can expect this phase to conclude around the end of 2025. Therefore, with this timeframe in mind, we have a great opportunity to make the most of this period. Let's forget about shorting and focus on maximizing our portfolios. It's also worth remembering that various corrections are possible during this period, so even if the price reaches $40,000, it's wise to continue working towards long positions and consider different opportunities to increase our assets. I look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussions on this new market phase and the opportunities it presents.Longby AleksDu7
BTC Halving Trade Idea~ 7RR. Swing trade with expectation of a break of highs post halving. Entered with 100% of capital.Longby hiteshbhatia3559Updated 1
Facts about $BTC in coming months V.03here is just another perspective from a repeating cycle on Bitcoin chart. I've shared younger chart earlier but it worth sharing it again here.Longby bitcharger4
BitcoinAn argument for continued consolidation to liquidate longs and shorts. Confusion of sentiment is how banks win. Blackrock is the bully for nowShortby mnovo3
Bitcoin distance from BMS 👀 #Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak. 📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few months. 💡Against this background, there are now quite a lot of good opportunities with altcoins, many projects we just recorded tenfold profits and now there will be an opportunity again to get new projects that are currently attractive for investment in the green zone.🚀Shortby FeelsStrategy2
BTC: $100K and Then What?Considering Bitcoin's macro wavemap, there's a very unlikely chance that it is in a true impulsive wave. Manual wave analysis and the speed of its advancement in price action compliment each other as indicators of an big, upside, corrective wave being in motion. Similar to the time I suggested that Luna would drop from $80 to $1, Bitcoin now sits in a variation of the same wave form. Posting this idea just to document my expectations of a return to $5 in the years between 2025 and 2030. Fib and form suggest that this target will be realized in due time.Shortby DigitalSurfTradingUpdated 447
Possible Bitcoin Tops(45% probability) Bitcoin is following a path of slowly decreasing volatility which leads me to believe a top around 66,000 is likely (RED). (45% probabiity) However, the market environment is very bullish and that is also adding to bullishness in bitcoin (e.g. Musk/Tesla buying bitcoin) this leads me to also accept the possibility that a more bullish target around 100,000 is also possible which would lead it just below that long term trend line it also failed at once already. (10% probability) Now... Lets say things get little more extreme. The government has been implementing record breaking stimulus right as the economy is finally starting to open up. This is leading to massive supply shortages and excess money supply as everyone is trying to ramp back up at the same time with tons of money on the books. Bitcoin still has a relatively small market cap at about a half of apple and a tenth of golds MC. In this environment 400,000-600,000 would be my most bullish target as that aligns with the past movements in bitcoins past which ranged around 2000% to 3000% above the previous all time highs, Longby SPresent21Updated 0
harmonizing fundamental analysis and technical analysis By harmonizing the waves of market psychology with the fundamentals of economic reality,we can unlock the rhythm of the market.. riding the waves of opportunity while navigating the currents of uncertainty... so elliot gives u insight into market psychology in a booming market and deep understanding of economic realities keeps u well grounded. harmonizing both of these can make u exceptional trader with excellent win : loss , profit :risk and sharpeys ratio. always rwemember this trading idea is never really a chart based idea... the idea u generate for trade starts from worldview > sectoral view > security analysis (stock analysis) > chart. so chart is only for execution of the generated idea. its not really a tool for trading idea generation. Most makes this mistake and lose the money. or in better words executing a fundamental idea on chart using an adjusted technical personalized wave method. Please remove spaces to see charts and see effectiveness of it. https:// www. tradingview. com/x/dzZHgmoc/ https:// www .tradingview. com/x/AVyakcD1/ https:// www. tradingview. com/x/wQydBzIZ/ https:// www. tradingview. com/x/NO0hNFbX/ https:// ibb .co/9bYQYyr link of a chart image hosted online Educationby tarundefyUpdated 0
Bitcoin RoadMap 2024/2025The thesis I will present today will go over the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its first cycle over a longer length of time. There are a lot of theories on where Bitcoin is going next, and it's been interesting seeing so many different perspectives. Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle? The first cycle is a interesting one , we had two tops, one big move followed by a 75% correction and after 231days we put in a higher high. Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it. The fact is there is not much room left from here , if Bitcoin repeats the same move and time then we looking at July at around 113k for a major 2024 top , for over 500 days now Bitcoin has been moving 100% every 120-140 days with the last move only taking 50days. What is interesting is it took 1200days from Pi cycle cross to cross , if it repeats the next cross is in July and a my projected cross which will most likely not be very accurate since moving averages will move a lot depending on price but late October 2024 would be the cross. Monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been in history coming back into all time high. 2Week RSI putting in nearly perfect lower highs since the start. Bitcoin all time high consolidation pattern looking like it did last cycle in 2020 when it was back at 20k. Looking over at my time cycles , it takes 1400days from cycle top to top this would put a cycle high in September 2025 from November 2021. It also lines up with my time fib in September 2025. Elliott wave indicator is flashing a wave 5 both of NAS100 and Bitcoin , as you can see by going back in time its not 100% perfect and calling the top but pretty close most of the time , as you can see last cycle it was off by 3 weekly candles. We are making lower highs on the Weekly and higher highs in price so bearish divergence could be forming here. stochastic RSI pointing down and MACD histogram printing two lighter colours but as you can see stochastic last bullrun we were going down the entire time Bitcoin was going up. Conclusion There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run. This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025. Longby Sporia449
We are all Satoshi- BTC wasn't created to to make you more rich. - BTC is here to give you more freedom. - P2P ( peoples to peoples ) - Don't look always at trends and just believe in the method and the idea. - we are so early. Happy Tr4Ding ! Longby thecryer338
The monthly on btcusd.The March Candle closes with approximately +16%, creating a price structure above the previous historical high drawn in 2021. A very strong signal regarding the long term, this favors the bulls in trying to snatch convenient prices until the short period will allow it by correcting on the most important supports. The last price structure that could act as support is in the 58k USD area, although between 63k and 61k USD there is another interesting area. What is striking is the fact that only in the January candle there was a correction, so looking at the fractal you notice similarities more with the bullish movement of 2016/17 than with the previous one 2020/21. Perhaps a new paradigm given that the main players in this market have changed.by Melupira890
Bitcoin Liquid Index Gann Square & EW CountHere I made an elliot wave count, this is a complete wave assuming the 5th wave is short like in 2013/2014. I will look into making an alternate count that shows one more 5th wave to go before a major correction like 2014/2018... Or unlike we've seen in bitcoin history? 60k-1k??? Well no need to get too excited, time will tell which way we're going and it's too soon to say for sure.by MikhiavelliUpdated 1113
BTC - Psychology of a Market CycleIn this analysis, I endeavor to elucidate the dynamics of market sentiment and investor psychology as reflected in the price action of Bitcoin. Drawing from past interactions and observations on social media platforms, I aim to integrate qualitative insights with quantitative data derived from Bitcoin price charts. By doing so, I seek to provide a nuanced understanding of how various market emotions manifest and influence Bitcoin's price movements across different phases of its market cycle. Please note that the following assessment is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to purchase any investment product. Investors should carefully consider their own risk tolerance and financial situation before making any investment decisions.by cryptochi19861
Unveiling the Power of RSI's Hidden Bullish Divergence.Greetings, friends and speculators. Let's take a moment to examine the Crypto King's relationship with the 2-month RSI indicator. The RSI has proven itself as a powerful tool, accurately identifying the exact bottom on three separate occasions. During the bear market lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022, a hidden bullish divergence emerged, signaling the conclusion of the downtrend and the initiation of a new "Mark Up" Phase. Interestingly, there has been an approximately 20% increase in the duration between these hidden bullish divergences. If we extrapolate this trend to the current period, we might anticipate a market bottom around July 2027. However, approach this prediction with caution, past performance does not guarantee future returns. To confirm a valid Hidden Bullish Divergence, the bulls need to maintain the price above the 2022 lows while ensuring that the RSI makes a lower low. Apart from indicating market bottoms, the RSI indicator also aids in pinpointing optimal exit points. Notably, RSI levels surpassing 90 historically denoted the conclusion of the bull run. With the current RSI hovering around the 70 mark, it suggests that the bulls still possess plenty of ammunition as they advance further. I should note that RSI has made a lower high during the last 2 market tops, one could assume that a lower high in this bull frenzy would fail to penetrate the 90+ level. If you recall my BTC post from September 2021, I advised bulls to start dollar-cost averaging into positions. At that time, BTC was experiencing an "Accumulation" phase, and it's clear that we've transitioned into a "MarkUp" phase now. As we approach the final Bitcoin halving, there is no doubt that an interesting time is upon us. To all those who weathered the brutal bear market, I salute you. Much Love & Good Luck! SPECUALTIVE SETUP, DYOR + DD. What is Hidden Bullish Divergence? A hidden bullish divergence is a setup where the oscillator forms lower lows at the same time that the price is forming higher lows. This setup is frequently seen in situations where the price has been in consolidation or has performed a pullback from an uptrend. What is RSI? The Relative Strength Index, or RSI for short, is one of the most popular technical indicators among the trading community. It belongs to the family of oscillators, or technical tools used to determine overbought or oversold conditions. It’s used to gauge the market sentiment. Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. A popular way of reading RSI values is to look for divergences that occur when a new high or a new low of the price isn’t confirmed by the RSI readings. displays on a vertical range of 0 to 100. Readings close to 0 are viewed as “oversold”, while those closer to 100 are a sign of “overbought” market conditions. Unlike some other momentum indicators, readings can’t go below 0 or higher than 100. by bL1TZZ229
Unveiling Bitcoin's Potential: A Fibonacci PerspectiveThe analysis presented makes a strong case for Bitcoin's capacity to achieve a new peak in this market cycle, grounded in mathematical rigor and historical patterns. As we navigate the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, this Fibonacci-based perspective provides a valuable framework for understanding potential future movements. Longby GEOthebeast0
Bitcoin CycleHighlighted the 4 year Bitcoin Cycle. Important note: Bitcoin Launched January 2019. Data starts at June 2010. So the first cycle is also subject to the pattern. What you can see is that the Bitcoin Bull-Run lasts 3 Years and the Bear Market Lasts 1 Year.by AJMourot1
Hopium 6 : Chancellor on the brink of second bailoutFinal bottom call for push to 100k. 18k entry with 50% cash, average down 10% for every 10% interval till filled. Longby hiteshbhatia3559Updated 2