A bullish scenario for SOXXThe SOXX ETF edged out the S&P 500 for the 1-year return, but it significantly outperformed the S&P for the 3-, 5- and 10-year returns, through January 31, 2022.Longby UnknownUnicorn382895760
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate. Shortby geoffreyip5232
Nice trade idea for SOXX! Semiconductor companies offer a lot of highly liquid securities that encourage risk-taking in all time frames, from intraday scalping to monthly market timing. The sector also supports various profit strategies, including momentum trading, basket allocations and short selling. It acts independently in many market phases, going its own way while major indices push higher or lower. This divergent behavior brings additional opportunities, even in difficult macro conditions. There are many ways to trade the semiconductor space, from identifying particular stocks to investing in the sector as a whole using exchange-traded funds (ETFs).by UnknownUnicorn382895762
LONG SOXX: DEEP VALUE SEMI-CONDUCTORS OWN MOORES LAW!LONG SOXX: Deep value semi conductors own moores law LONG SOXX: Deep value semi conductors own moores law LONG SOXX: Deep value semi conductors own moores lawLongby QuantumLogicTradingUpdated 0
Semi's Sliding - My Call On 05 Dec 2021Semi's Sliding - My Call On 05 Dec 2021. As I asked at the time, is the current cycle nearing it's end. Tweet added as proof/evidence. What glut? :)by techpers0
ISahres Semiconductor ETF USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutionsby Sunstorminvest0
A PERFECT STORM! 🐰Hi there, Yurii Domaranskyi here. Risk vs Reward = 1 to 32.31 ✨ It means if you risk here 100$ you may make 3231$ Not bad, huh?Longby TRADING_as_a_BUSINESS11112
SOXX going upStochastic oscillator and heiken ashi already indicate a turn around from a bottom (March 20). The index typically bullish, pulling back to fibbonacci levels. Same fibbonacci retracement shows the next level (much higher).Longby Hammerite110
$SOXX SEMI CONDUCTOR STRENGHT WILL NOT BE DENIEDI like the setup I am seeing for resolution to the upside for semi-conductors here. I do have one concern but I'll address that shortly. On the left is a weekly candle chart of SOXX the iShares semi-conductor ETF. The upward trendline from the covid-crash trough is firmly intact. The 100 Day EMA has proven to be key support. The index started consolidating the second week of November after a 10% move up the previous week. The index has been in that consolidation period ever since - perfectly normal and healthy. During the consolidation phase a support level around $516 has been established. What I don't like are the upper wicks on the candles during this consolidation phase. It shows that prices have not been able to breakout to the upside despite trying to push higher. If your looking for an entry, either a level down closer to support or a close above the upper wicks would be a better spot then where the index currently sits. I do believe that the current evidence points to a breakout of the consolidation. Here's my case: 1) The long term uptrend is firmly intact. 2) Consolidations are continuation patterns. 3) Relative strength to the broader index (soxx/spy) is testing a breakout level after forming a deep base that goes back nearly a year. 4) After a tough chop-filled week in the markets XLK showed relative strength to SPY on Friday's close. The majority of the names in the XLK that outperformed it's sector were semi-conductor names. 5) XLK/SPY showed a move higher before getting to previous support - relative strength improving due to semi-conductor names in the XLK. Links to my watchlists: SPY Sectors - www.tradingview.com XLK Holdings - www.tradingview.com SOXX Holdings - www.tradingview.com Toggle by change% and everything above the index ticker outperformed for the day.Longby Breakout_ChartsUpdated 2
Semiconductors at long-term supportWhen looking at a weekly chart, it is easier to see if an asset is in a bullish or bearish trend. Taking a look a the SOXX, we see we are at a potential place for a bounce. I chose the 52 exponential-moving average because there are 52 weeks in a year, and it has worked very well in the past. A close on a weekly basis below this level is the signal to get out. If we can hold though, it would be a strong bull case for a bottom.by dorfmanmaster0
Semiconductor short I'm forever blowing bubbles, Pretty bubbles in the air, They fly so high, nearly reach the sky, Then like my dreams they fade and die. Fortune's always hiding, I've looked everywhere, I'm forever blowing bubbles, Pretty bubbles in the air. shh JPOW Disclaimer: post for information only; no advice or fks given TA: Bear div, broken parabolic trend line FA: Transitory Caution: can stay irrational longer than sheeple can stay solventShortby Great_Reset_Investing2
Semiconductor shortBearish rising wedge daily chart has broken down recently and back testing the trend line. Objective short entrance. Negative divergent continue to grow on both RSI and PPO.Shortby TK04210
Semi's are showing exhaustionSemiconductors reached peak bulltard due to shortages. The uptrend started back in 2013 and was barely affected by covid. At the peak it was 40% above the weekly kijun. Interesting to see what happens. The next big short or just an expected correction?by TheTradersBias1
SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe. For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today. There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole. When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505. Longby dorfmanmaster0
SOXX UpdateHas a decent gap to fill. Usually shortable above upper trendline. In NVDA puts, may add AMAT puts.by MightAssTouch0
SOXX Fractal Similarity to 2017-18pretty cool huh? SPX 2012-13 and 2020-21 are also very similarby sparrow_hawk_7370
SOXX DailySOXX, the range bound sucker that won't die. This thing has a long ways to go if a correction comes. Short AMAT or NVDA. by MightAssTouch0
Semis OverviewThe two overcrowded trades of 2021 are financials and Semis. May pick up AMAT shorts sometime soon. Shortby MightAssTouch0
Rotation could cause a much larger move for tech than expected! My gut tells me this is worth a betShortby lightningfreek1
Semis at supportWe got our bearish divergence. Dip buyers will probably come in soon. Longby sparrow_hawk_737Updated 1
When the Party at SOXS is too goodThe party at SOXS is never that good. But sometimes things come together. As you can see when everyone has arrived it is time to leave and move the party back to SOXX. Longby Maui-Mowgli2