Smadis

Smadis Updated 

The chart says it all, BTC might decide to give max pain to the bears who are thinking that the 30k resistance will hold. In my opinion, the 35k zone is more important because it would be the retest of Bitcoin's previous bear market consolidation area and the first meaningful fib level retest. I still remain bearish in the big picture like in my previous post made...

Smadis

This is a point of great importance and indecision. Will we break out to the upside and continue the bull run or will we squeeze the overly optimistic bulls? The signals are mixed so we will have to see. Scenario A - We break out to the upside with great volume and continue the bull run until we hit the upper range of the macro logarithmic band. We have taken out...

Smadis

Hey! Here is a quick update. We have finally seen our parabolic uptrend broken after putting in what so far seems to be a 3-year macro lower high/double top. However, even though I am bearish for the next months, most shorts will probably not survive this potential downtrend. Our daily bearish engulfing candle is extremely large so this liquidity gap will probably...

Smadis Updated 

Hey, here is a quick update to my BTC macro chart. Yes, it has been difficult being a bear and getting ridiculed on the move up to these price levels. What you have to understand is that market movements are designed to squeeze every last drop of blood out of people who might see the macro picture clearly but are slightly inaccurate with the details. So many bears...

Smadis Updated 

Hello again! This post will analyze the possibility of an alternate H&S neckline that I did not cover in my last week's post. The reason was simple - I do not like very steep head and shoulders patterns so one could question whether this is a H&S at all. Well, the rules of a head and shoulders state that the lowest point of the right shoulder should be...

Smadis

When the S&P 500 moved above its 200 day moving average, I no longer had any reason to be bearish anymore and and as the price action shows, we had a very big rally after that. However, it is interesting to note how we are still respecting this ongoing monthly bearish RSI divergence. We could even create a quintuple divergence if we end up creating a slightly...

Smadis Updated 

In this post I will give you an update that is slightly more detailed than my usual macro updates. I have been contemplating the possibility of this head and shoulders forming for several months now. BTC might find temporary support if we crash down to the low to mid 9k region and we could get quite a nice bounce after filling the $9.6k CME gap. That level is also...

Smadis

I want to keep this one relatively short so I will let the chart do most of the talking. Check my last posts if you want more information. Updates: 1) Zoomed in so that the first market cycle is no longer visible. This change improves legibility. 2) Adjusted the macro resistance line and included the old resistance line which is represented by the segmented...

Smadis Updated 

This post is a warning to all the bulls out there who think fundamentals trump all technical indicators and long term market patterns. The crypto fear and greed index has reached a new high of 80 which illustrates the extreme greed in the current market. We have seen a lengthy period during which finding someone with a bearish outlook on social media or Youtube...

Smadis Updated 

This is it. We finally got the breakout we were looking for. Unfortunately for the bears, we only got a meager correction before another rip to the upside. Those who follow me know that I predicted that we would create a macro higher high to trap the bulls and fill the CME gap at 11.8k before our final capitulation. However, I did think that we would drop to the...

Smadis Updated 

Hello again! So far it would seem that we have begun our descent following the breakout from the tightening range in the upper 9k region. Even though I think lower lows are eventually coming, bears should not become too overconfident just yet. If you carefully examine the past market cycles, you will see that we always had two macro highs in this area of the bear...

Smadis Updated 

Hey! As predicted, we went back up to fill the CME gap. Here is a short term BTC chart that may be of use to you. My followers know my personal bias but in this chart I tried to find as many meaningful bearish and bullish signals as possible on the daily chart so you could draw your own conclusion. Of course I could not show you all the indicators so feel free to...

Smadis

We recently saw the breakdown from the rising wedge as predicted in my earlier post. People who played that were able to lock in some nice short profits. However, the price has managed to creep back up again so many might be wondering what will happen next. We can see that the 61.8% Fibonacci line is providing more resistance than even I expected. The problem is...

Smadis Updated 

Congratulations to everyone on the Bitcoin Halving! We recently observed an impulsive move to the 10k region and everyone lost their minds. I haven't seen such irrational euphoria during which every bearish post is downvoted into oblivion for a long time. Most permanently biased YouTube channels declared a confirmed breakout out of the downwards sloping resistance...

Smadis

We have now retested the descending resistance line after breaking down from our long term support line as predicted in my previous posts. Will we now retest our descending support line as previous market cycles would suggest? Well, the bulls would have to take out the high at 10.5k and put in a higher high to invalidate this structure. At the very least, they...

Smadis

We have been observing this Rising Wedge on the S&P 500 for a while now and I expected the price to at the very least reach the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level. It finally tagged this level today and now the question becomes whether it is going to retest the 200 day moving average or not. The likelihood of getting one more swing to the upside of this rising wedge...

Smadis Updated 

Yeah, there is a lot of info in this post so bear with me. We recently saw the breakdown from the long term support line on the logarithmic chart as predicted in an earlier post of mine. The question now is what will be the angle of the trend line we will form for our next market cycle. I have presented multiple possible outcomes. In the bullish scenario, we will...

Smadis

Everyone is calling the current formation an ascending triangle but it is much more likely to be a rising wedge on the 4 hourly time frame. One can consider wicks to further support a trend line but candle body closes should always have more significance than wicks. Don't fall for the narrative that we are immediately going to break out of this consolidation...