flavio.arruda

flavio.arruda

Pretty favorable P/L ratio for a risky volatility breakout swing trade.Long up R$14.17, Stop Loss at R$13.43.

flavio.arruda

Idea for this week: BMFBOVESPA:CSMG3

flavio.arruda

Once again PBR has gone up way too far and too early. Despite REAL record apreciation this year the company still has more than US$100B of net debt and its main product ( Oil Brent ) is devaluing more and more.

flavio.arruda

Long ITUB4 ( NYSE:ITUB ) Short BBDC4 ( NYSE:BBD )

flavio.arruda

OBV not following prices. Very unlikey INDEX:SPX makes a new ATH (All Time High), but even if this happens it should be unsustainable at this volume levels. A correction is the most likely scenario for the next 2-4 weeks.

flavio.arruda

Trading Idea for tomorrow. Long BMFBOVESPA:CPFE3 with great P/L ratio. CPFE3 is lagging other Brazilian utilities sector stocks.

flavio.arruda

This study show the possibility ( ceteris paribus ) of BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 loosing another 8.5% (going to R$7.53 level) in the next 16 days based in historical correlation with VALE5 in a one year time-frame. I'll play this doing a Long (VALE5) & Short (PETR4) and buying PETR4 puts.

flavio.arruda

Divergence between CL1! , INDEX:XOI and NYSE:PBR . Very bearish for PBR, PBR.A, PETR4. Long (XOI) & Short (PBR) may be interesting.

flavio.arruda

BBAS3 (Banco do Brasil) releases earnings this Thursday. As happened with other Brazilian banks they must trigger sells (ex: ITUB4, BBDC4). Being a state owned bank must intensify plunge. I should start to buy a put spread (between 18.50 and 17.50) today to take advantage of this movement.

flavio.arruda

Shorting NYMEX:CL1! with great risk/return ratio. For day-trade or 2 days trade only, medium term oil price still undefined.

flavio.arruda

If NYMEX:CL1! opens neutral or bearish monday morning I´ll buy BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 PUTS (PETRQ90) aiming a two days correction for PETR4.

flavio.arruda Updated 

If VALE fails to closes above the R$16.10 mark than it will start a major correction targeting R$12.00. I´ll buy a PUT Spread at the end of the day(+VALEQ62/-VALEQ60) if it fails to close this mark till 3h30PM. Today VALE5 will report their first quarter production. The market expects a record break, but this is already in the price, as may be seen in the chart.