Yesterday I did an update of the bearish wedge that was formed since the bounce from the 17.6 low:
I still haven’t learned how I can update in TradingView, since the app changed year ago. So just doing it here
The idea I showed in my analysis played out, except of course that I had the stop hunt zone wrong. The bounce it did today from the lows is what I wanted to see yesterday when it was still above the 18.000.
But the blue line with that higher low possible entry scenario, is what seems to be in play now, just the levels are a bit different, but the idea is actually the same.
Now it looks like a possible bearish wedge, which has a target around 17.800. But, for the coming days to become bullish, it’s very important to see it stay above 18.000ish, so failing to reach its target because bulls are eager to get in at higher prices instead of waiting for the target price of the wedge. Then ideally, we get that higher low formation, similar as I described yesterday on TradingView.
The wedge support seems to be around 18.300, so if that breaks, it should drop some more and then hopefully see that scenario play out.
The bigger picture, the bull flag if obviously not in play anymore. Not in the basic sense of a bull flag. It should have stayed above 18.200 yesterday for that, with as a max a wick to 18.000. This failed, so now we have to wait and see if the blue line plays out and then I can possibly judge what the new target can be.
Resistances I see are around:
18.600, which has to break coming day or 2. Then 19.000ish, which bulls failed to break yesterday and caused the drop. Then 19.250 also still stands and above that the 19.500 is probably the last level that stands in the way to break the 20.000
The blue line I have drawn on the right is what i showed yesterday in my update, where we should now be at the lows of it. So for it to play out, i think it should NOT drop below 18.000ish anymore. Now we want to see a break of 18.300, then maybe bounce a bit between 18.200 and 18.600 where the orange zone on the right is the key moment. Forming a higher low and then start the real bounce up and break the 18.600 resistance
On the left, the daily candle of yesterday is normally a bullish sign and gives hope for the scenario of the blue line. But again, i think the max low should be around 18.000. Because normally if yesterday's bullish candle fails to follow through, things can turn ugly. Because that candle is usually a powerful sign, actually showing bulls stept in yesterday to buy Bitcoin, which then has the risk that if the support breaks, they can throw in the towel as well and make the price drop even more. So i do think today's close will be important for the trend of the coming days, maybe even week or 2, but that is an assumption.
About the bull flag, since Bitcoin dropped below 18K and my scenario of the stop hunt to around 18.2 failed, it also invalidated the standard bull flag shape. Now i have seen many moments in different assets that it can still reach it's bull flag target, but that is a pure guess now and nothing real to go on with confidence. For now, again, think 18.000ish should not break anymore, maybe a wick is allowed to 17.900, but that is guessing again. If those break, i have nothing real to go on, because the big triangle target has already been reached.
My focus is still that higher low (orange circle zone), because i still think that is the lower risk entry point. Which has proven itself, because if i would have longed 2 days ago at 18.200 for example, i would have probably been stopped out. Even now, i am not seeing anything clear from the bulls yet, except for the daily candle of yesterday of course. As i am writing this, it's hanging around 18.100, where it normally should start to bounce but bulls can't seem to manage to that yet, which makes it a high risk entry.
So for the coming hours, would say, bears need to break 18.000 (maybe 17.900) and bulls need to break 18.300. If one of those 2 break, i think it might become easier to judge things.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
I still haven’t learned how I can update in TradingView, since the app changed year ago. So just doing it here
The idea I showed in my analysis played out, except of course that I had the stop hunt zone wrong. The bounce it did today from the lows is what I wanted to see yesterday when it was still above the 18.000.
But the blue line with that higher low possible entry scenario, is what seems to be in play now, just the levels are a bit different, but the idea is actually the same.
Now it looks like a possible bearish wedge, which has a target around 17.800. But, for the coming days to become bullish, it’s very important to see it stay above 18.000ish, so failing to reach its target because bulls are eager to get in at higher prices instead of waiting for the target price of the wedge. Then ideally, we get that higher low formation, similar as I described yesterday on TradingView.
The wedge support seems to be around 18.300, so if that breaks, it should drop some more and then hopefully see that scenario play out.
The bigger picture, the bull flag if obviously not in play anymore. Not in the basic sense of a bull flag. It should have stayed above 18.200 yesterday for that, with as a max a wick to 18.000. This failed, so now we have to wait and see if the blue line plays out and then I can possibly judge what the new target can be.
Resistances I see are around:
18.600, which has to break coming day or 2. Then 19.000ish, which bulls failed to break yesterday and caused the drop. Then 19.250 also still stands and above that the 19.500 is probably the last level that stands in the way to break the 20.000
The blue line I have drawn on the right is what i showed yesterday in my update, where we should now be at the lows of it. So for it to play out, i think it should NOT drop below 18.000ish anymore. Now we want to see a break of 18.300, then maybe bounce a bit between 18.200 and 18.600 where the orange zone on the right is the key moment. Forming a higher low and then start the real bounce up and break the 18.600 resistance
On the left, the daily candle of yesterday is normally a bullish sign and gives hope for the scenario of the blue line. But again, i think the max low should be around 18.000. Because normally if yesterday's bullish candle fails to follow through, things can turn ugly. Because that candle is usually a powerful sign, actually showing bulls stept in yesterday to buy Bitcoin, which then has the risk that if the support breaks, they can throw in the towel as well and make the price drop even more. So i do think today's close will be important for the trend of the coming days, maybe even week or 2, but that is an assumption.
About the bull flag, since Bitcoin dropped below 18K and my scenario of the stop hunt to around 18.2 failed, it also invalidated the standard bull flag shape. Now i have seen many moments in different assets that it can still reach it's bull flag target, but that is a pure guess now and nothing real to go on with confidence. For now, again, think 18.000ish should not break anymore, maybe a wick is allowed to 17.900, but that is guessing again. If those break, i have nothing real to go on, because the big triangle target has already been reached.
My focus is still that higher low (orange circle zone), because i still think that is the lower risk entry point. Which has proven itself, because if i would have longed 2 days ago at 18.200 for example, i would have probably been stopped out. Even now, i am not seeing anything clear from the bulls yet, except for the daily candle of yesterday of course. As i am writing this, it's hanging around 18.100, where it normally should start to bounce but bulls can't seem to manage to that yet, which makes it a high risk entry.
So for the coming hours, would say, bears need to break 18.000 (maybe 17.900) and bulls need to break 18.300. If one of those 2 break, i think it might become easier to judge things.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Comment:
Assuming that channel is real, it should stay above 18.100 from now, if so, we could see another push. If it breaks, could become another failed bounce again.
Comment:
Extra update on Bitcoin:
Comment:
New Bitcoin analysis:
There is one more backup plan for the bulls, since it's dropping in steps and not a straight drop. If it would continue to drop in steps, towards yesterday's low, then it could still become a double bottom. But that is a pure guess for now, so i wouldn't bet on it upfront, just something to keep in mind.