BTC
Back down to $57K in a hurry.
I've overlaid S&P again to highlight that Bitcoin is continuing to move with the index.
And actually today Bitcoin has already printed a bearish momentum candle whereas S&P has not, so potentially it is now leading the S&P.
So as one overtakes the other, we may find that Bitcoin's continuation is signalling further imminent downside with S&P.
Where I have labelled "S" for "Shakeout" that is a little bearish clue.
Impulsive action that arrives from calm price action usually is a signal that a following trend will have some gas in the tank.
And where I have drawn the arrow; that limp push up into the shakeout that becomes a fast dump; looks quite bearish.
The next clue will come from seeing how far this bearish trend can slump without a bounce.
Until we see that, we are a little in the dark about how deep this might go.
This is the same as what we looked at with S&P a little while ago.
If the trend is fairly weak and corrective then we may see a bounce as the day RSI goes oversold 🧐.
Not advice
Back down to $57K in a hurry.
I've overlaid S&P again to highlight that Bitcoin is continuing to move with the index.
And actually today Bitcoin has already printed a bearish momentum candle whereas S&P has not, so potentially it is now leading the S&P.
So as one overtakes the other, we may find that Bitcoin's continuation is signalling further imminent downside with S&P.
Where I have labelled "S" for "Shakeout" that is a little bearish clue.
Impulsive action that arrives from calm price action usually is a signal that a following trend will have some gas in the tank.
And where I have drawn the arrow; that limp push up into the shakeout that becomes a fast dump; looks quite bearish.
The next clue will come from seeing how far this bearish trend can slump without a bounce.
Until we see that, we are a little in the dark about how deep this might go.
This is the same as what we looked at with S&P a little while ago.
If the trend is fairly weak and corrective then we may see a bounce as the day RSI goes oversold 🧐.
Not advice
Comment:
BTC
Has bounced well and is currently in the 0.618 retracement Golden Window.
If it can exceed this then likely a larger bounce is on.
But if it slumps then we may see lower lows as the impulsive downtrend takes hold
Considering that indexes have gapped up on the unemployment data and may see some bearish whipsaw; this area is quite precarious.
Looking at the chart in isolation, this bounce can easily be reactive; since it just had a fast dump.
So we're getting to a dangerous area now for both crypto and stocks.
And this is where non-technical buyers will be getting used to seeing easy profits coming in.
They'll be treading with greed and complacency.
But the trap door could be opening here 🧐.
Has bounced well and is currently in the 0.618 retracement Golden Window.
If it can exceed this then likely a larger bounce is on.
But if it slumps then we may see lower lows as the impulsive downtrend takes hold
Considering that indexes have gapped up on the unemployment data and may see some bearish whipsaw; this area is quite precarious.
Looking at the chart in isolation, this bounce can easily be reactive; since it just had a fast dump.
So we're getting to a dangerous area now for both crypto and stocks.
And this is where non-technical buyers will be getting used to seeing easy profits coming in.
They'll be treading with greed and complacency.
But the trap door could be opening here 🧐.
Comment:
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Comment:
BTC
Has now fully engulfed the impulsive slump and so this signals that we may not be heading into the Wyckoff Mark Down phase of the correction just yet.
Relative to the overall structure, that impulse down may now be considered to be an "exhaustion climax."
Obviously these terms such as "climax" we are using romantically and this term is derived from "selling climax."
The reality is that it is a market mover bear trap shakeout; tapping liquidity below the long term Shakeout Demand Line.
So from here, Bitcoin in isolation is effectively released and we'll watch to pick up the clues of how high it may go.
One consideration is that it is now moving up on the weekend and that will leave gaps in regular trading hour Bitcoin related instruments.
That will attract price to fill those gaps and can pull the trend down.
Also considering that Bitcoin has been moving in tandem with stock indexes, if they fall then Bitcoin may find a route to do the same.
But for now we can look to the stronger altcoins and see how they do and perhaps we'll see some pumps.
This can also be an opportunity to trim back (or entirely sell) any weak altcoins - and there are a lot of them 😅.
Has now fully engulfed the impulsive slump and so this signals that we may not be heading into the Wyckoff Mark Down phase of the correction just yet.
Relative to the overall structure, that impulse down may now be considered to be an "exhaustion climax."
Obviously these terms such as "climax" we are using romantically and this term is derived from "selling climax."
The reality is that it is a market mover bear trap shakeout; tapping liquidity below the long term Shakeout Demand Line.
So from here, Bitcoin in isolation is effectively released and we'll watch to pick up the clues of how high it may go.
One consideration is that it is now moving up on the weekend and that will leave gaps in regular trading hour Bitcoin related instruments.
That will attract price to fill those gaps and can pull the trend down.
Also considering that Bitcoin has been moving in tandem with stock indexes, if they fall then Bitcoin may find a route to do the same.
But for now we can look to the stronger altcoins and see how they do and perhaps we'll see some pumps.
This can also be an opportunity to trim back (or entirely sell) any weak altcoins - and there are a lot of them 😅.
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The shakeout slump "S" that we looked at I think is the beginning of the real correction.
That said Bitcoin could have a reasonable bounce and perhaps do something that appears to be against the grain.
As I said before there is nothing to say that it couldn't have a very large bounce; perhaps a 0.618 from the highs.
If that did happen it would get back to $66.6K.
That said I think the limp shakeout followed by the fast 2 day slump is the clue that higher time frame momentum has shifted to the downside.
A lot may depend on if indexes hold and how long for.
These are things we can't know but it can be advantageous to buy the altcoin dips with fibs + bullish RSI and just see how it pans out.
As for buying Bitcoin; you could do but I think the top is in so it is probably a better play to wait for lower lows.
Crypto stocks look quite poisonous currently since they are affected by bearish indexes 🧐.