For everybody who's been around in cryptoland for more than a few years, this chart should look more than familiar. If this chart was sound, it would be the crypto theme song.
I don't think technical analysis will help much in overcoming the fundamentals:
- A project that even for the low standards of a cryptocurrency has no usecase. It was born as a joke, in a time when everybody was following that "how to fork litecoin" tutorial from the bitcointalk forum. Doge is one of the few coins that survived that era.
- The project is more or less in maintenance mode without any plans or potential for creating the illusion of being useful.
- It's based on a meme. Memes come, explode, die, get resurrected, die again.
- Google trends for "buy dogecoin" spiked around Jan 29th and it's flatlining since then.
- Volume on exchanges dropped 10-20 times.
- The /r/dogecoin subreddit exploded to over a million users but is not gaining new users since then. The daily discussion threads went from several ten thousand comments to now a few thousand, a sizeable part of this traffic looking like bots.
- The majority of retail "investors" has no clue what they are doing and what they were buying. A group that is prone to repeat the mistakes we all made at some point in the past 10 years with Bitcoin or other coins: We buy at the worst time, get high on green candles, then reality sets in, candles get red, we convince ourselves for a while that we are in it for the long game, and then one by one we start dumping, or, if we bought at the absolute top, become multi-year baghodlers.
If price and volume is really all you need to know in trading, then the verdict is clear: There is no volume. The hype train has left the station two weeks ago and went choochooing in Iota, Data and God knows what other coins are still left to pump before that cycle collapses again.
Of course, there is always the chance of an Elon Musk tweet sending Doge to $0.10, but let's pretend for a moment we are adults: Is it smart to put your money into an investment whose value exclusively relies on whether some weird billionaire Bond villain feels like tweeting today? And if it's not smart money, what kind of money is it? Do you want your money to be that kind of money?
I don't think technical analysis will help much in overcoming the fundamentals:
- A project that even for the low standards of a cryptocurrency has no usecase. It was born as a joke, in a time when everybody was following that "how to fork litecoin" tutorial from the bitcointalk forum. Doge is one of the few coins that survived that era.
- The project is more or less in maintenance mode without any plans or potential for creating the illusion of being useful.
- It's based on a meme. Memes come, explode, die, get resurrected, die again.
- Google trends for "buy dogecoin" spiked around Jan 29th and it's flatlining since then.
- Volume on exchanges dropped 10-20 times.
- The /r/dogecoin subreddit exploded to over a million users but is not gaining new users since then. The daily discussion threads went from several ten thousand comments to now a few thousand, a sizeable part of this traffic looking like bots.
- The majority of retail "investors" has no clue what they are doing and what they were buying. A group that is prone to repeat the mistakes we all made at some point in the past 10 years with Bitcoin or other coins: We buy at the worst time, get high on green candles, then reality sets in, candles get red, we convince ourselves for a while that we are in it for the long game, and then one by one we start dumping, or, if we bought at the absolute top, become multi-year baghodlers.
If price and volume is really all you need to know in trading, then the verdict is clear: There is no volume. The hype train has left the station two weeks ago and went choochooing in Iota, Data and God knows what other coins are still left to pump before that cycle collapses again.
Of course, there is always the chance of an Elon Musk tweet sending Doge to $0.10, but let's pretend for a moment we are adults: Is it smart to put your money into an investment whose value exclusively relies on whether some weird billionaire Bond villain feels like tweeting today? And if it's not smart money, what kind of money is it? Do you want your money to be that kind of money?