For technical analysis, price action is consolidating with large demand below current price. The market is in an uptrend, and we are in a bull market. The market is not overheated, in fact it is relatively cool. Thus Rune is likely to appreciate along with the market.
I will now share my thoughts on why I believe RUNE has potential to 10x.
Rune has a deterministic price, which is 3x its TVL. 2 dollars of RUNE are bonded for every 1 dollar of non rune liquidity. If this ratio falls, nodes can buy RUNE to earn a larger share of trading rewards. Therefore, RUNE price is tied to how much money is in the system, plus supply and demand.
Currently deterministic price is around 1.3 USD, with actual price around 4. Therefore the speculative multiplier is around 3. The lowest the multiplier has reached was around 2. A multiplier of 3 is bullish still, especially in a bull market.
Assuming Bitcoin can reach 150k, and most assets in the pool experience a 3-4x, RUNE will also 3-4x.
However, that is assuming the amount of pooled assets stays constant. I believe the number of staked assets on RUNE will increase if people and protocols choose to use the system for cheap swaps between different assets, without bridge risk. Therefore, if there are twice the amount of pooled assets, the price of RUNE will double on top of that. Finally, the speculative multiplier can be expected to reach above 3 for the entirety of the bull market.
Therefore, that is my thesis.
It is simple. If THORSWAP succeeds, the price of RUNE will go up.
Worst case: ~ 15 USD
Base Case: ~ 62 USD
Best Case: ~ 90 USD
How I am trading this. My personal opinion and not financial advice.
Investor: Buy spot and hold
Trader: Long using ~2x leverage, with the amount of money you are willing to lose on this trade. Invalidation if consolidation is bearish. Position can be reentered later. If price develops bullishly and the bottom is proven to be formed, increase leverage until invalidation is below the last absolute bottom. Do not add on the way up without moving up invalidation, as 40-60% drops are not uncommon historically. Take profit based on time cycles & longer term trend following / price action.
This analysis assumes Bitcoin will go up. In my opinion, Bitcoin going up in price is the most realistic outcome.
I will now share my thoughts on why I believe RUNE has potential to 10x.
Rune has a deterministic price, which is 3x its TVL. 2 dollars of RUNE are bonded for every 1 dollar of non rune liquidity. If this ratio falls, nodes can buy RUNE to earn a larger share of trading rewards. Therefore, RUNE price is tied to how much money is in the system, plus supply and demand.
Currently deterministic price is around 1.3 USD, with actual price around 4. Therefore the speculative multiplier is around 3. The lowest the multiplier has reached was around 2. A multiplier of 3 is bullish still, especially in a bull market.
Assuming Bitcoin can reach 150k, and most assets in the pool experience a 3-4x, RUNE will also 3-4x.
However, that is assuming the amount of pooled assets stays constant. I believe the number of staked assets on RUNE will increase if people and protocols choose to use the system for cheap swaps between different assets, without bridge risk. Therefore, if there are twice the amount of pooled assets, the price of RUNE will double on top of that. Finally, the speculative multiplier can be expected to reach above 3 for the entirety of the bull market.
Therefore, that is my thesis.
It is simple. If THORSWAP succeeds, the price of RUNE will go up.
Worst case: ~ 15 USD
Base Case: ~ 62 USD
Best Case: ~ 90 USD
How I am trading this. My personal opinion and not financial advice.
Investor: Buy spot and hold
Trader: Long using ~2x leverage, with the amount of money you are willing to lose on this trade. Invalidation if consolidation is bearish. Position can be reentered later. If price develops bullishly and the bottom is proven to be formed, increase leverage until invalidation is below the last absolute bottom. Do not add on the way up without moving up invalidation, as 40-60% drops are not uncommon historically. Take profit based on time cycles & longer term trend following / price action.
This analysis assumes Bitcoin will go up. In my opinion, Bitcoin going up in price is the most realistic outcome.