hermes_trisme

S&P bulls attempt to regain control but they are not there yet

Short
BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Last week, using oversold bounce, buyers attempted to regain control over the price. Their effort was somewhat successful, as they managed to establish both a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. However, they failed to set a weekly low, which was a challenging task given the magnitude of the previous week's range. This indicates that bears still maintain control over the weekly (and monthly) timeframes, suggesting that we should expect to see more selling pressure in the short term.

The immediate objective for bulls is to test the price above last week's high (509.9) and to close the month within March's range. They must also protect the last higher low (497.5) or the last weekly low (495.5), or else their progress will be undone.

The short term outlook is mildly bearish.
Watch out for volatility on Wednesday as important economic data is released and FED announces decision over interest rate

Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Comment:
Market is waiting for earning reports and FED decision.
Comment:
As expected, the price tested levels above last week’s high but didn’t find support from large buyers to go higher. Sellers used this weakness to their advantage.

I don’t expect this sell-off to last long unless there are significant negative surprises from the FED decision today or from big tech earnings. Technically, bulls have managed to shape a daily uptrend and build some value above last week’s high, indicating that sellers might lack confidence. Additionally, yesterday’s earnings reports (e.g., Amazon) were positive, with nothing particularly “scary” about them. they rather served as a trigger for the sell-off than the true reason
Comment:
Yesterday's market movements did not alter the overall disposition: a strong rally by buyers followed the FED's decision announcement, only to be met by significant selling pressure. On the daily chart, we remain in an uptrend, while the weekly chart shows sellers in control, suggesting a balance of power between both sides. Apple's quarterly results are set to be announced today, which may contribute to increased volatility in both directions.
Comment:
All the bulls need to do today to prove their strength is to close week above 510
Comment:
Bulls have made a very strong statement by closing week at it's high. Weekly higher low is set, which provides ground for weekly uptrend continuation.

Disclaimer

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