What a crazy time to be alive. The economic systems at full stress, inflation maxing out, uncertainty, nukes, peace talks, cost of living crisis, expensive electricity and gas in a only recently COVID recovering world.
First thing I point out for everyone expecting a large drop of +-50% is that we have some strong incoming support for total market cap - Longterm upward diagonal trend line and previous ATH (all time high) in pink.
I read yesterday that bitcoins been less volatile than the S&P500 for the first time which really makes me think, are we going to get this mass dip? I don't see the liquidity getting flushed without something big happening first. I.E. Putin doing something stupid, or the US Bond market breaking, the UK's recent government failings have broken the pound, whats next? Just two hypothetical examples, could be anything else as the global economy us under stress everywhere in this post Covid, post mass money printing world.
The USD looks to be topping, if it does wheres that cash going to go? Bonds? Crypto? How will the value of investments be protected when it reverses? Wheres the safest place?
The US has established a communication channel with Russia again, first time since MAY. Could positive negotiations spark an up move? Maybe the interest rate hikes cease, could this be enough to spark an up move off my trendline ideally please!
RSI is moving up as well - great sign but we need to see some volume to add further positive divergence
Or do any possible Russia negotiations go tits up causing the Ukraine war to escalate? Does a housing or bond crisis pop up? and trigger the move down?
Or do we just tail off slowly again for a second bear market year? I would prefer to see the trendline hold, and slowly continue up.
I will note that that if we follow the previous bear market we may get the step down, and then perhaps a step up begins right below the kumo cloud cross, as it did last time. We would also have another 12 - 18 months before a bottoms in based on previous cycle - Early 2024 marking the bottom.
Gun to the head I would have to lean towards my more optimistic side, just given how pessimistic everything seems right now.
Not financial advice. As always at this point the market could go either up or down in my opinion.
First thing I point out for everyone expecting a large drop of +-50% is that we have some strong incoming support for total market cap - Longterm upward diagonal trend line and previous ATH (all time high) in pink.
I read yesterday that bitcoins been less volatile than the S&P500 for the first time which really makes me think, are we going to get this mass dip? I don't see the liquidity getting flushed without something big happening first. I.E. Putin doing something stupid, or the US Bond market breaking, the UK's recent government failings have broken the pound, whats next? Just two hypothetical examples, could be anything else as the global economy us under stress everywhere in this post Covid, post mass money printing world.
The USD looks to be topping, if it does wheres that cash going to go? Bonds? Crypto? How will the value of investments be protected when it reverses? Wheres the safest place?
The US has established a communication channel with Russia again, first time since MAY. Could positive negotiations spark an up move? Maybe the interest rate hikes cease, could this be enough to spark an up move off my trendline ideally please!
RSI is moving up as well - great sign but we need to see some volume to add further positive divergence
Or do any possible Russia negotiations go tits up causing the Ukraine war to escalate? Does a housing or bond crisis pop up? and trigger the move down?
Or do we just tail off slowly again for a second bear market year? I would prefer to see the trendline hold, and slowly continue up.
I will note that that if we follow the previous bear market we may get the step down, and then perhaps a step up begins right below the kumo cloud cross, as it did last time. We would also have another 12 - 18 months before a bottoms in based on previous cycle - Early 2024 marking the bottom.
Gun to the head I would have to lean towards my more optimistic side, just given how pessimistic everything seems right now.
Not financial advice. As always at this point the market could go either up or down in my opinion.