Pre-recession PumpAccording to this chart, true recession will come next year, not this year. Before the big dump is a big pump.by Indotermes114
Differences in central bank interest rates.The FED Interest rate is moving the stock market, but forex is more sensitive to the spreads. In this simple aggregated chart, indexed to 100, several spreads between countries are shown. For example, focus on the white continuous line, the US Dollar is more appetible for investor respect to Japanese Yen, because the UnitedStates has higher interest rate on its currency. While, focusing on the red continuous line, the UnitedStates have the same interest rate of Canada. This means US Dollar and Canada Dollar have the same interest by investors in terms of interest on their currency. This means USD/CAD might be less dependant now from their central bank's monetary policiesby giancarlopagliaroli5512
Chart defined stagflationThis chart has #stagflation written all over it. If initial claims are back at 50 year lows. Seriously, do you think it's going down even more? What did gold & silver do in the 1970s?Longby Badcharts117
Strong Dollar Milkshake It appears that the Dollar has officially sucked up the stock and crypto markets, paid off some past loans loans, inflated the economy with new loans, and now will Weak Dollar it's way down to pump the economy.Longby Tiedeyez1
$spy $tlt It's not the inversion that kills the marketIt's when it normalizes you better watch out. I think we've put in a generational top and we go lower. Can't rule out a continued rally as the state of inversion can last a while.by shawnsyx68111
This recession identifies as an apache helicopterChart displays the US inflation rate and US unemployment rate. Red zones mark recessions (from stlouisfed.org). 6/8 of the past recessions are lead by inflation rates surpassing 5%. Only the dotcom recession had an inflation rate below 5%, and the other was COVID, which we are experiencing the resulting inflation currently. so, every time the inflation rate jumps, unemployment follows on a lag. we can see that the ends of recessions are usually marked by a declining inflation rate and peaking unemployment rate. but remember, this is not a recession and our country is in great hands. ECONOMICS:USIRYY FRED:UNRATEShortby Feech37111
Why isn't the US officially in a recession? The US has technically entered a recession in the second quarter 2022 as the economy contracted 0.9% year over year, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. However, the official body that is tasked to make a call on whether the economy is in a recession has yet to declare that the US is in fact in an economic downturn. Slowdown in private and public spending In the April-June period, GDP shrank for the second straight quarter, which the US Department of Commerce attributed to the drag in private inventory and residential fixed investments, reduced federal government spending and a drop in non-residential fixed investment. General merchandise stores and motor vehicle dealers in the US eased their inventory build-up in the recent quarter, leading to the drop in private inventory investment, while the government’s move to cut down on its non-defense spending resulted in lower federal government spending. These factors offset the increase in exports and personal consumption spending in the second quarter. While the second consecutive drop in GDP reached the widely accepted definition of a recession, the US, according to a body that gets to say when the country is already in one, has yet to make a call. Who makes the call? The National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit organization founded in 1920, serves as the “official” arbiter of whether the US, the world’s largest economy, is in a recession or not. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee consists of eight members who are among the country’s top economists working at leading academic institutions. The committee keeps track of the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions and its decision is based on a wider set of indicators including income, spending and employment. The NBER defines a recession as a period that involves a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Growth slowing While the US is not in an official recession, many analysts acknowledged that the country’s economic growth is slowing. Even US President Joe Biden said “it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down” as the economy came off of last year’s historic growth, regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the COVID-10 pandemic. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden said in a statement last week following the release of the quarterly GDP report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also remains optimistic on the economy, telling reporters in a recent press conference: “I do not think the US is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well.” Strong jobs data “This is a very strong labor market ... it doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening,” Powell said. In June, non-farm payrolls rose by 372,000 month over month, topping the 250,000 market estimate, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession,” Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by CNBC as saying. The strength in US consumption and employment are still providing support to the economy, but some analysts are warning that it is only a matter of time before the US succumbs to a recession as soaring inflation continues to dampen consumer appetite, while the volatility in financial markets linger due to uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, stagflation concerns and other factors. The International Monetary Fund last week lowered its outlook on the US economy, now expecting a 2.3% growth this year, down from its previous 3.7% expansion forecast, while it expects the world economy to rise 4.2%, slower than its anticipated 3.6% growth forecast. by BlackBull_Markets3
The land down underAustralian unemplyment figures have been at absolute all time lows, even taking out the beginning of the end of the mining boom in the late 2000's. With the mining boom in western australia came the strong AUD rate which really hurt the east coast which attracts a lot of tourists. The strong AUD means mainly international tourists look to cheaper destinations. In 2022 we have seen a new boom in mining again in western australia. This new boom, along with all time low unemployment might be a good opportunity to purchase a bag of AUD and RioTinto stock and sit on it for a few years. This is not financial advise, so its not.Longby BringTheFingerBack1
Economic CausalityYou know why we are here. I'm a trafficker of information, I know everything I can. The question is. Do you know why you are here? We are looking for Bill Hwang. This is not a reason. This is not a why. You are here because you were sent here. You were told to come here and you obeyed. Ha ha, it is of course the way of all things. You see there is only 1 constant, 1 universal, it is the only real truth. Causality. Action. Reaction.... Cause and Effect. Everything begins with choice. No. Wrong. Choice is an illusion. Created between those with power, and those without.by SPYvsGME1
non farm payroll recession trackerAll official recessions had negative NFP prints the US economy in 2022 is still far from seeing thatby Osman_Ersoy1
Macroeconomic ViewDecember 2021 seems to be the end of this long lasting bull market.Markets affected by the inflationary easing policies followed by the FED, going back to the end of the subprime mortgage crisis, were blooming. The rise of the NASDAQ100 is only an example of what happened due to boosting culture adopted by FED. This brings us to now. What US is facing is the inflation rate rising, while interest rate hikes look like not being enough to pause this. The Ukraine-Russian war is something that adds on the energy crisis existing globally, even though it is not the only reason to blame for the rising on CPI .FED-among many countries- decided to counter COVID-19 loses with further easing providing money that correspond to no real product, and basically as Milton Friedman would point providing the market with inflation . What we are watching though is an effect of what has been accumulated for years and has no single cause. The recession scenario seems to be the most realistic one for the years coming. It is my view thought that what FED is trying to achieve with the rate hiking though, is not to control the inflation , but rather to make the production less "money supply prone" so that the effects -the most important being production decline and unemployment rise- of the imminent freezing of the money flowing out of it's machines will be minimised.Shortby koumkouat2
Inminent RecessionWell, it seems that historically when we get to the current sentiment about the economy, it predicts a strong recession. At this point, it has not happend because taking into account real interest rates, the economy continues being at expansionary levels, but this will cause more harming to purchasing power as inflation keeps growing.by nicolasaguilerap222
Housing Market Boom / Crash Statistical AnalysisHousing market's median home value (for new homes) peaked 2 months ago at $457k. Total growth leading up to that point over the last 59 years, since 1963, was $439.3k. The last two years accounts for a significant portion of all growth, while the last two growth periods displayed more growth than all of which occurred during the 44 year period between 1963 and 2007 12.4% of all growth has been lost in the last 61 days, or 37% of what was gained in the last 2 years. Following the bailouts in 2008 we began to see recovery across markets, but starting around 2010 an exaggerated period of growth began. After the covid pandemic flash crash, that exaggerated growth skyrocketed, leading to an unsustainable market economy, especially in housing. The losses we've seen over the last 61 days may indicate the beginnings of an extended period of severe loss if markets are left to correct naturally, if not artificially bailed out yet again. Shortby dudebruhwhoa112
A Decade of DebtIt felt like yesterday that Obama Care was the biggest concern on everyones minds. After 1.4 Trillion in healthcare spendings in 2021 and COVID pounding on weaker baby boomer populations has driven total debt into a parabolic upwards trend. War is festering in Ukraine, Wars get expensive. EU is on the brink of an Energy Crisis unlike anyone has seen before. Battery and Solar are incredible expensive and low margins. Practical thinking would suggest this is not sustainable. Inflation will continue, debtors gain from inflation because they are repaid with dollars that are worth less. If you think this past weeks Bear Market rally marks the end of inflation fears and rising interest rates, think again. This easing of market conditions can therefore only be temporary and only serve to provide fuel for a second leg down. Longby SPYvsGME6
SPY QQQ DJI , Are We heading into a recession? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fell over 20% since January of this year, and many are questioning whether the recent bull rally is an indication that the market may have bottomed, and if we are now recovering. Even with the fed announcing a 75bps rate hike this week, and a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP report, the market has gained over 6% just this week. Anyone can find a perma bull or perma bear argument and run with it, however I like to use historical data and context to give us an idea of what may possibly occur. So I compared the 10Y-2Y bond yield spread to see what has happened in the past, relative to the S&P500. The conclusion I came away with, is that there has not been a time when the 10Y-2Y bond yield has inverted, without a recession following it. The question is how long did it take for the full blown recession to occur, and that's the challenging part, and there is no way to predict when the actual recession will occur based on history. For example the three recessions that occurred most recently were the .com bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008, and most recently the mini Pandemic recession of 2020. All three times the chart showed clear inversions between the 10Y 2Y bond yield curve. In March of 2000 the spread between the 10Y bond yield and 2Y was -50 at the bottom of the inversion, and it took about 189 days before the stock market crashed. In 2006 the inversion bottomed around feb 2006, and the 10-2y spread was about -20, (which is actually where it stands today), and the stock market did not crash or feel the effects for another 500 days give or take. In 2020 the inversion bottomed around July of 2019 and the spread got as low as -.02, and the market collapsed in March of 2020 (many still question how the bond yields could have predicted the pandemic) nonetheless, this chart has proven to be a great predictor of recessions. So to sum it all up, using just technical analysis (the marco supports this but that another topic for another day), shows that the likelihood of another recession occurring is more likely then not, whether it will occur in a few weeks, months, or even years is the question, so I urge every trader to just keep this in mind its okay to go with the trend and make some money, however just be very cautious with your assets and keep this in mind. Best of Luck to all. This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas. by Wastenotime224
real yields seem to be ready for a turnaroundSilver could be pushed up here along with real yields which seem like they have dropped too much too fastLongby lucky_human_footUpdated 1
will real yields rise now and bring silver along?real yields have been falling very quickly and look oversold. Could it be that it will rise now and bring silver up as well?Longby lucky_human_footUpdated 0
ISM New OrdersPersonal notes on the indicator. Heading lower. Last major read was fallout of 08. Incurs a negative bias on the wider economy.Shortby GreatScottTheMoon0
NFIB small businessPersonal notes on economic indicator. Optimism is heading lower. The last major read was the fallout of 08. Incurs a negative bias for the wider market.Shortby GreatScottTheMoon0
University of Michigan Consumer sentiment indexPersonal notes of the leading economic indicator. Any read below 60 is generally negative for the markets. The last major read at this level was in the 08 fallout. The most recent read is an all time low. Incurs a Negative bias for the wider market. However only a good read for durable goods.Shortby GreatScottTheMoon0
Marching toward Stagflation..!Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s, rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market economies, and investors in equity markets suffered greatly as a result. (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com CPI and Inflation data will be out tomorrow! "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers in urban households for a basket of goods and services. Changes in the CPI reflect changes in the cost of living in the U.S. The CPI is an economic indicator that is most frequently used for identifying periods of inflation (or deflation) in the U.S. While the CPI is the most widely watched and used measure of the U.S. inflation rate, many economists differ on how they believe inflation should be measured. For a more accurate and comprehensive measure of inflation rates in the U.S., look to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, or use the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in tandem along with the most recently reported CPI measurements." (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com Now let's look at PCE in the past 2 years: GDP: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. What is the FED solution for controlling prices(demand side)? Nothing but increasing rates..! Lest look at historical data: Forecast: If CPI keeps rising at the same pace as the past 24 months, by the end of October 2022 YOY Inflation rate will be 10.1%..! Then, I think it will be highly likely we experience a similar scenario to the 1970-1980 Best, by MoshkelgoshaUpdated 111128
THE RELATIVE INFLUENCES OF THE VARIOUS ECONOMIC COMPONENTS ON SPwhich are the correlations of note for BTC --it turns out BTC is most correlated with the 10y - 2 year yield curveLongby HINDUKUSHMASTER0
NG Backwardation PlayClassic backwardation scenario, a textbook move. Major supply disruptions at Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility in Australia, Nord stream at 20% flow, and a lag between demand and LNG deliveries to Europe will likely drive prices higher, but we are betting on what we know, the difference between spot and the August contract. We can expect the future price, to converge towards the spot price, making this position a long. Longby Vercingetorix010