The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since...
This forecast study the dot com bubble and the subprime bubble (2000 and 2008) as referenced for the current AI bubble. The US interest rate serves as reference for forecasting the market top (between sep 2024 and april 2025), and the market bottom (end of 2026). DYOR, NFA.
This video highlights interest rates dropping prior to Fed Meeting prior to March 2024 Meeting. Indicating a Strong correlation for Technical analysis over Market Media.
In this video, I'm overcoming a sinus infection. However, I am explaining the movement come March 24 the Federal Interest Rate. Concluding, that the interest rate will drop during the Fed Meeting.
In recent years, many of us acknowledge that the term "recession" has been appearing in news and social media outlets at an increasing rate. While it acts as great clickbait, most sources tend to avoid to avoid a more fundamentals data driven approach, but rather are preferential an opinionated viewpoint from which their viewers can relate. Here I propose a more...
Potential equity upside: uncertain.
Potential equity downside: uncertain.
FED is currently paused at 5.5% interest rates, and even if they did increase rates again like they did in 2000 after pausing at 5.5% from 1995-1998, a pivot to start decreasing rates is due in the coming years- continuing the long term stock/bond market cycle.
30 year bond yields at...
Long term entries and exits for 20 year bonds and SP500 (via SPY) in correlation solely to FED interest rates and US inflation rate adjustments.
Here's my personal game plan going forward with this in mind- not war news.
Starting to add TMF (20 year treasury 3X) equity now.
~Sell covered calls on it until FED pivot lowering interest rates.
~Add all TMF...
higher US rates, the US dollar should be trading higher. But inversely, the US dollar became weaker since September last year.
In today’s tutorial, we will discuss what is the cause of a weaker US dollar and the future of the US dollar; despite US interest rates could go higher than expected.
Bond trading:
• US Treasury Bond futures
Minimum fluctuation: 1/32...
MACRO MONDAY 10 – Historical Interest Rate hike Impact on S&P500
This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements.
At a glance the chart highlights the lagging effects of the Federal Reserves Interest Rate hikes on the S&P500 (the “Market”). In all four of the interest rate...
Split view showing the previous real rate of Bonds study along now with the actual Bond Yields. This is to gain insight into Demand dynamics for Bonds and what happens to yields when real yields are positive (expectation is that positive real yields will increase demand, reducing supply, and allowing Treasury to increase Bond prices and reduce yields.
A study showing the real rate of returns on the various US Treasuries. Calculated by subtracting the YoY Inflation Rate (released monthly) from the Yield of the Bond. Real Fed Rate also shown for reference. Above 0 makes Bonds and Savings more attractive, aka more Demand for them. Price may increase and yields decrease, encouraging selling. Below 0 provides...
Introduction:
TradingView has gained widespread recognition as a versatile platform for traders and investors, offering a wide range of tools and features to analyze and trade financial markets. In this guide, we will dive into the core features that make TradingView a go-to choice for traders of all levels.
User-Friendly Interface
Intuitive Charting :...
Introduction:
Forex trading is not just about analyzing charts and economic data; it's also about understanding and managing the psychological aspects of trading. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore the crucial role psychology plays in forex trading and provide strategies to help you develop a disciplined and resilient trading mindset.
The Impact of...
We all know that rising interest rates mean falling stock prices. It's been repeated endlessly over the last year with people getting up in arms about the stupidity of the market to be rallying with interest rate hikes.
To elaborate on this, here's the massive interest rate bubble of the 1970s. From 1975 - 1981 US interest rates would go up a whopping 500%!...
Forecast on the S&P500 prices for the next 3 years. This forecast is based on the 2 historical crashes of the S&P500 (2000 / 2008), based on the evolution of US Interest rates.
This is forecast is shouldn't be considerate as financial advice.
![USINTR: [STUDY] Bond Rates VS Real Rates](https://s3.tradingview.com/h/hQ58ZdY7_mid.png "[STUDY] Bond Rates VS Real Rates")
![USINTR: [STUDY] Real Rates of Bonds](https://s3.tradingview.com/y/YOFh2N1K_mid.png "[STUDY] Real Rates of Bonds")
![USINTR: [STUDY] Inflation, Fed Rates, Bond Yields, GDP, OIL](https://s3.tradingview.com/q/QnFI09rw_mid.png "[STUDY] Inflation, Fed Rates, Bond Yields, GDP, OIL")
