Parallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders inside another set of parallel trendlines with embedded head and shoulders. Rates are set to crash. When bad news becomes bad news, look out below. Overall in the economy, there is too much supply, no where near enough demand. This is the last chance to get guaranteed yields in dollars this high for the next...
TNX just bounced off the bottom end of its ascending channel and formed an inverse H&S while doing so. Kind of scary looking for bulls.
TNX has been rising, but it's forming an ascending channel that could lead to a bearish break below. Currently sitting near the bottom end of the channel. The jobless claims from today should push this lower as traders anticipate rate cuts starting in September.
Stocks rose last week, but a more important signal may have come from the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Today’s idea uses multiple time frames to consider whether borrowing costs have finally peaked. The first pattern on the daily chart is the gap lower on November 2. It was a key day when labor productivity improved much more than expected and labor costs...
Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major...
U.S. Treasury yields have dominated sentiment since early 2022. Today we’ll return to the important chart of the key 10-year note. This chart uses two-week candles to show the bigger picture. The yellow line illustrates the upward trend. Four levels are also highlighted. First is the October 2018 peak of 3.248. TNX held that level in April 2023 following the...
High probability entries using TNX trend, macd and BB. Broad market, cyclicals basics. price and macd divergence bearish. bullish if macd is at support and BB is at support/breakout. can combine w/ the trend lines? tightening BB means accumulation, break outs. just for fun and learning purposes. //stay w/ the dominant trend.
WIth two consecutive up side breakouts recent months, I reckon the odds for higher rates are higher than a dip back into the range. Time will tell...
Comments: Doing something long-dated here in 20 year+ paper to get in at a cost basis that is coincident with a 10 year yield at 4.10%. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis: 91.40/contract Max Profit: 8.60 ($860)/contract ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 9.41% (Excluding Dividends) ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 4.70%...
Investors have been optimistic about interest rates and inflation for much of the past year. However, two important charts may undermine those hopes. Today’s weekly chart returns to the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. First consider the series of higher lows since July 2022 – despite improvements in headline inflation numbers. That rising trendline may...
Treasury yields have had a big impact on stocks since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates in 2022. Now one of the biggest charts in that market might have done something important. Today we focus on the 10-year Treasury note’s yield, measured by the index TNX. The first pattern is the 4.324 percent level. It was a peak in June 2008 and again last August....
Time is running out for a very specific event this year in the TNX. The charts will immediately show you what I mean and cycles are projecting something the GOLD bugs and Silver bugs have been waiting for a very long time... It seems their time is coming up and it may last for about a decade.... Time is extremely short to get into position for what the charts...
The chart is the 10 yr paper We now have 5 waves down and into .618 Look for a move BACK UP in RATES and this should also see The peak formed in Dia and Spy QQQ IWM and most of all SOX
Have you ever encountered the notion that less can be more? Well, that's precisely why it has taken me considerable time to present this update concept regarding Bond Yields. This analysis carries profound implications for every global market. What we're witnessing here holds the potential to trigger the most significant economic downturn in our lifetime—the...
Showing a possible bounce off the .786fib, for a continued new EW for TVC:TNX
TNX support at 200EMA 4.109 if it holds may lead to a bounce , thus resulting in a larger pullback in /ES and /NQ /NOTE: /ZB is at resistance level
See chart for comments. A good example of a move with an extended wave 5.