Michael_Stark_Exness

Michael_Stark_Exness

The euro has bounced more aggressively than gold against the dollar since the middle of last month as economic conditions and, possibly, rates in the EU and USA show more signs of converging. Eurozone-wide annual headline inflation has been 2.4% for two months running and seems likely to remain below 3% for the rest of the year barring significant surprising...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold’s recent bounce seems to be mainly a reaction to weaker than expected American data recently, primarily GDP and the NFP, but the reaction to inflation in line with the consensus was also positive. Major indices in the USA reached fresh record highs this week, so expectations of recession aren’t currently on traders’ radar. 12 April’s intraday high around...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Rising stocks of crude in the USA over recent weeks have put a hold to the commodity's long rally for now. However, recent rumours that the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve might start to be refilled with prices of American light oil (Exness' symbol 'USOIL') below $79 seem to be a key reason for reluctance to push much below $80 a barrel as yet. The...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The Fed's meeting this week gave some support to gold, with Jerome Powell saying that another hike this year is unlikely, although that hadn't been a serious expectation anyway. It remains very likely that the Fed won't now start cutting rates this summer and also quite possible that there won't be three cuts in 2024 and that the expected start of the cuts, now in...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The UK is in a technical recession but sentiment overall on the British economy is cautiously optimistic. Inflation has now dropped lower than in the USA though and most participants expect the Bank of England to start cutting from August. Even if that’s correct, the divergence in policy and carry trading for pound-yen is likely to remain for several more years at...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The dollar has generally strengthened against most major currencies since the beginning of March as expectations for the start of the Fed’s pivot have steadily moved back. There’s also the American economy’s overall good performance. GDP remains high and the chance of recession low while inflation and new jobs have consistently beaten the consensus for many...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold’s extremely strong gains paused this week after the higher print from inflation in the USA, but there’s currently no indication of a reversal of the trend. A significant retracement is also questionable. The main technical reference in the short term is the 20-day simple moving average which seems to be an important dynamic support. The main resistance is now...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The chart of euro-dollar looks a lot more ‘normal’ than gold, which isn’t surprising since the usual situation for major forex pairs is a sideways trend in the medium to long term. The price is quite close to the medium-term support around $1.07: whether it continues lower depends on the ongoing reaction to the ECB’s meeting and developing expectations for rates...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Although still strongly affected by developing predictions for the funds rate this summer, whether and when the Bank of Japan or the Japanese government might intervene to support the yen has been a more important intrigue for dollar-yen in recent weeks. Despite the BoJ’s exit from 14 years of negative rates, many participants expect the current loose policy to...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold hasn’t clearly broken through $2,300, so for the time being this area is still active as a resistance and might trigger a consolidation. Looking for a counter-trend trade in the context of such a strong uptrend is extremely risky, but an immediate breakout upward is also questionable. The overbought signal is clear from both Bollinger Bands and the slow...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The Hang Seng is nearly unchanged from where it started the year. Some of the strongest gainers of the index in recent days have been JD and Meituan. However, Tencent Holdings, by far the largest constituent, is down around 20% since January. The latest earnings season in China wasn’t stellar although negativity has arguably been overstated in some media this...

Michael_Stark_Exness

USDCNH covered about half of last Friday’s spike on Monday and has continued to gain since. Volatility increased significantly since the end of last week, but it’s still unclear whether it’ll continue at similar levels or perhaps decline somewhat over the next few sessions. Either way, the uptrend is likely to remain active unless there’s a significant...

Michael_Stark_Exness

EURUSD seems quite ambiguous over the longer term, which is essentially a ‘normal’ situation for a major forex pair. The lower high in early March probably suggests a sideways trend rather than an upcoming downtrend: the slow stochastic is close to neutral and the price hasn’t been able to break below the 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement area around...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold posted its biggest daily gain since December 2023 in the aftermath of the Fed’s meeting this week, so it certainly seems that the uptrend is still active. However, now that the price has reached the next psychological area of $2,200 and buying saturation is visible again, the next possible round of gains could be more modest than early March’s nearly vertical...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Much like cable, the pound has bounced back against the yen in recent days after relatively positive British data. However, Japan’s latest GDP release showed that a technical recession has been averted for now, and there are rumours that the Bank of Japan might even consider tightening policy at its meeting next week. There remains some speculation that Japan’s...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable briefly broke out of its range around last week’s NFP, moving up to nearly $1.29 before retreating again this week. Expectations that the Fed will cut in June have held in March so far while American inflation for February came in slightly higher than the consensus on Tuesday as widely expected. Although the golden cross of the 20 and 50 SMAs and the...

Michael_Stark_Exness

In the aftermath of the latest NFP, the US dollar has declined across the board while gold’s recent strong gains have continued to end the week close to its all-time high of about $2,185. Signs that the labour market could be slowing down seem to confirm expectations that the Fed will cut its funds rate in June. On the chart, the price of gold has made extremely...