Trade from 13th May (Mon) - 15th May (Wed)
UX1 has been compressed very low thru out this week (and very quiet) before key eco data next week. Model indicate that there is a Long VIX coming during the eco release. Hence win-lose odd ratio is in favor of long
Entry price reference: 13.55 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.4 - 15 (spread 0.2 - 0.9)
Stop...
Trade for 11th March (Mon) - 12th March (Tue)
UX1 went a bit of overshoot with Tech sold off, which also influenced by the weekly Option expiration (rather than Non-farm). However, there is no indication on fear in the market. Our model suggested it will still go compressing till Tuesday (post CPI data)
Entry price reference: 15.2 or higher (this is not at...
Trade for 4th March (Mon) - 5th March (Tue)
With such a hot market in place (still very strong momentum), even though spot vs UX1 has built a big gap on friday and in long run there is no sign of "fear" yet. However the contradict move for UX1 March on Friday indicate a long VIX model signal.
Entry price reference: 14.05 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low -...
With PPI data release on Friday (again.. there may be a surprise as like Wednesday CPI). Model is expecting a surge on UX1 (March future).
Entry point: 14.95 or lower (watch for how Market goes on Thursday and Friday APAC/EU morning session)
Profit take: 90bps from Entry or 15.8 (whichever hit). In particular if PPI is much hotter than expected (est. 0.1% on...
Trade for 12th Feb 2024 - 13th Feb 2024 (Mon and Tues)
With CPI data release on Tuesday, SPX is just slightly above the 5000 threshold (subject to how long it is able to hold) and SPX Monthly Option expiration on Friday. Model is very committed with a long vix signal which led an average lift of 50+ basis pt
Any "bad" CPI data point higher than expected could...
Trade for 8th Feb 2024
As now ES and NQ is on the high end, there is a expectation of a mini pull back at least for profit take.
Entry price reference: 13.40 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.05 - 14
Stop loss: 13.2 30 mins post US open (tighter stop loss)
Profit take: 13.6 - 13.8 anytime thru out the day
As now is in this strange pattern where ES up, Vix up, signal continue to keep as Long spread signal, also recent VIX curve move is parallel move in front 3 months (long spread help to keep risk low as no real direction in short or long vix)
Entry price reference: 1.06 or better (UX1 is 14.12)
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 1.01 - 1.11 (UX1 is 13.8 -...
This is for Long UX1 (Feb) positioning (1 day),
Entry price reference: 14.6 or better
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 14.3 - 15
Stop loss: 14.2 post 30 minutes of US open (i.e. post 10am)
Profit take: any time if hit 14.8
Very short stunt as ES's momentum is very hard to keep up with many earning release yet to come.
Next week
- Johnson & Johnson 23/1 Tue
-...
This is for Long UX1 (Jan) positioning (1 day), Entry point is 13-13.05
Today PPI is another eco driver for the week. Indicative trading range for Friday is 12.8 - 13.5.
If PPI is muted. set stop loss at 12.8 post 30 mins of US open OR profit take any time 13.3 during the day (whichever hit first)
If PPI again is hotter than expected, set profit take higher to...
