tacosaurus

tacosaurus Updated 

here is a bit longer term rendition of my current views. the red circled area is the end of the year and has the largest number of confluencing factors -- midpoint of pitchfork, 50% retracement of covid gains. ironically the bull case would be the top near the yellow line at 3900 and the extra bearish case would be more like 3200 or so, which is a 62.8% retrace...

tacosaurus Updated 

here is what i see: an inverse head and shoulder formed at the bottom of a series of gap downs over the course of roughly ten days. today the neck line broke. projection for this type of break is usually the size of the neckline to the peak of the head. it is no coincidence that this math works out to just about 4k. the fact there is a gap there is highly...

tacosaurus

I dont see us getting much over 4300 on any sort of relief, but the 4070-4110 gap is bound to fill very soon. combined with my short term bearish outlook on uup, I think there is a good chance we could get a push to fill in some of the gaps above. VIX exp expiration wed morning might start with some hedge unwinding to give some oomph for a short term bear rally...

tacosaurus

higher price, lower RSI and lower MACD. looks pretty tired to me, looking for 27.5 by end of the week. Playing w/ may20 28 puts.

tacosaurus Updated 

today's close gives a very nice hammer candle. while we were not genuinely oversold by RSI measures on daily or 4h, with a fed meeting coming up, it seems likely some uncertainly will filter out of the market. that small gap could fill before the end of the week in no time.

tacosaurus Updated 

volume declining on back half of the formation. neckline break could spell trouble (call it 175-177 zone), would imply downside to 168 or so, a little below the 200 day. short term formation so might be short lived. longer term, I still ee a beautiful cup-n-handle here, which i think stays in tact. if this pattern does validate, it seems the bottom end...

tacosaurus

Chart can consolidated and looks ready to move upwards into earnings. 31 looks likely; 34 possible.

tacosaurus

Very nice declining volume saucer or maybe even inverse H&S here. MACD turning up. cracking through 125 opens the door to 140. possible gap fill to 150, but probably not this week.

tacosaurus Updated 

BTBT recently had to move a large chunk of it's mining operation from china to the us (which is now complete). This cut into mining revenue last quarter. Given the increases in bitcoin recently and apparent support at this longer term uptrend line (thick green gently upward slope), it seems there is a good case for further upside here. Given that 25% of this...

tacosaurus Updated 

Todays close was not very inspiring - failed an attempt at breaking back to the upper channel of the pitchfork. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my read is we are going to 3800-3900, probably in the May timeframe. Sell in may and go away, right? Or just go away now. Weekly chart here. The hammer feels good, but I think we are going to chill in that...

tacosaurus Updated 

Also could have a bit of bear flag formation here - but looks like it is getting ready for the next leg down to me, especially if this gravestone doji looks as it does. maybe down 40 in the coming weeks?

tacosaurus Updated 

The BTC chart is now at an important inflection point at the 42k level. Only a short while ago this was viewed as the most important support which then broke down opening a descent to ~~ 30k where we bounced and found new highs! So it's important to consider both the bull and bear case from here, wait for a clear direction to form, and trade in the direction of...

tacosaurus Updated 

volume spike on neckline break. interestingly the projection here would be to the bottom end of the previous trading range. looks poopy for sure with the head actually being a clear double top. hard to find much to like here.

tacosaurus Updated 

There are a lot of weird things afoot in the SPX. First, we have a big bearish divergence with the RSI making lower lows as the SPX has been making advances towards all time highs. Second, we have a very interesting volume indication here where down-day volume is substantially higher than up day volume. Third, we have been rejected in the 4700-4740 zone many,...

tacosaurus Updated 

X marks the spot. Of the best looking megatech names out there. note the big dink was after earnings where there was a large acquisition announcement etc.

tacosaurus Updated 

UPST has had a crazy run and dump, and while many high P/S names are still badly damaged, with UPST being one of the first ones to fade, it is also appearing to be one of the first to recover. Clear double bottom around 160 which also bumped into it's longer term uptrend line (the thick green line). Even now aroudn 190, I think this is still a decent time to...

tacosaurus

Pretty fantastic move today with a clear breakout from previous range 18.5-20.5. MACD starting to turn upwards. Buy on any touches of the thick 'green' uptrend line here. downside danger starts under 20.5 and stop out around 18.5.

tacosaurus Updated 

While this is definitely on my 'high price/sales ratio' short candidate list, some of the action the past few days is suggestive of a short term bottom/bounce. * MACD starting to turn up (hourly almost crossing the 0 trigger line) * RSI coming out of oversold * (not shown) coming out of bottom end of bollinger bands) * a few long wick hammer-esque candles *...