Hello fellow trader love muffins,
Its your token quantitative trader here. Expect a boring day tomorrow.
Both bulls and bears are likely to be disappointed. This is based on my calculations and on the price action of futures.
I was hoping for a bullish start to futures that sustained for most of the night (similar to January 24th) as this generally signals impending aggressive selling.
So far, futures has been a yawn fest with just consolidation, meaning no dramatic moves are likely the future of futures (get it? Future, futures ;)).
I have an equation for calculation Futures open (12 am the night before, pretty scandalous really) to predict Spy High and Lows the next day (I know, I know, me and my math). As you can imagine, its pretty hit and miss because I am essentially comparing two separate securities. However, the low tends to be fairly on point +/- 3-4 points. Based on S&P futures open, we could see lows for tomorrow around 441 ish. +/- 3-4 points (it was really on point Feb 4th with a predicted low of 444 and an actual low of 443.83, this is truthfully the only time I have used it aside from tonight).
This actually almost aligns with my long term modelling of SPY which suggests lows in this range tomorrow (I don't want to give specifics because Monday data tends to be the most unreliable).
Moral of the story? Likely a boring day coming. However, I think we are poised for decent intra-day plays on the long and short side.
But bears, don't fret! Because if we hit that 441 - 443 low target (Even +/- 3 points) we are still on track to make some pretty awesome lows in the coming days. Based on my numbers, the only thing that would really throw off our short trajectory and the timeline of reaching it there substantially is if SPY rockets past 453.07 and holds. If this is the case, then I will need to relook at things, because my timeline may very well be disrupted further than I am comfortable in holding my current position. (I mean, this would trigger my stop out, I am not risking my current profits for SPY to consolidate on the higher end).
But don't worry bulls, some good news for you, too.
We could see highs in the 450s tomorrow. So if you are swinging long, I think you will have an opportunity to exit for a profit tomorrow (assuming you entered below 450).
While I don't care about indicators or chart patterns, I generally stick to my stats, these calculations/estimates would ultimately lead me to believe that SPY would be forming a double top pattern for you technical cats out there. So, yeah, there you go!
My thoughts for the night.
Have a great night everyone and best of luck tomorrow!
Its your token quantitative trader here. Expect a boring day tomorrow.
Both bulls and bears are likely to be disappointed. This is based on my calculations and on the price action of futures.
I was hoping for a bullish start to futures that sustained for most of the night (similar to January 24th) as this generally signals impending aggressive selling.
So far, futures has been a yawn fest with just consolidation, meaning no dramatic moves are likely the future of futures (get it? Future, futures ;)).
I have an equation for calculation Futures open (12 am the night before, pretty scandalous really) to predict Spy High and Lows the next day (I know, I know, me and my math). As you can imagine, its pretty hit and miss because I am essentially comparing two separate securities. However, the low tends to be fairly on point +/- 3-4 points. Based on S&P futures open, we could see lows for tomorrow around 441 ish. +/- 3-4 points (it was really on point Feb 4th with a predicted low of 444 and an actual low of 443.83, this is truthfully the only time I have used it aside from tonight).
This actually almost aligns with my long term modelling of SPY which suggests lows in this range tomorrow (I don't want to give specifics because Monday data tends to be the most unreliable).
Moral of the story? Likely a boring day coming. However, I think we are poised for decent intra-day plays on the long and short side.
But bears, don't fret! Because if we hit that 441 - 443 low target (Even +/- 3 points) we are still on track to make some pretty awesome lows in the coming days. Based on my numbers, the only thing that would really throw off our short trajectory and the timeline of reaching it there substantially is if SPY rockets past 453.07 and holds. If this is the case, then I will need to relook at things, because my timeline may very well be disrupted further than I am comfortable in holding my current position. (I mean, this would trigger my stop out, I am not risking my current profits for SPY to consolidate on the higher end).
But don't worry bulls, some good news for you, too.
We could see highs in the 450s tomorrow. So if you are swinging long, I think you will have an opportunity to exit for a profit tomorrow (assuming you entered below 450).
While I don't care about indicators or chart patterns, I generally stick to my stats, these calculations/estimates would ultimately lead me to believe that SPY would be forming a double top pattern for you technical cats out there. So, yeah, there you go!
My thoughts for the night.
Have a great night everyone and best of luck tomorrow!
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