GIVEN THE CURRENT MACRO ENVIROMENT WHERE UNEMPLOYMENT HAS STARTED TO RISE AND GDP READING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, OPEC ALLIES KEEPS CUTING OUTPUT AND WEAKER DEMAND EXPECTATIONS, OIL MAY BE HEADING TO 75USD PER BARREL AS SOON AS THE NEXT WEEK.
BULL THESIS:
- Yields start to rise as bets on FED hike
- Strong economic data
- Middle east conflict escalates
- East Europe Crissis escalete
- Crude facilities compromised
BEAR THESIS:
- Yields keeps falling as weaker macro data show up
- Crack spreads lowering
- Israel vs. Hammas cease-fire achieved
- Russia hold its positions on Ukraine, Ukraine doesn't reply attacks
- Crude extraction and refining facilities not compromised
BULL THESIS:
- Yields start to rise as bets on FED hike
- Strong economic data
- Middle east conflict escalates
- East Europe Crissis escalete
- Crude facilities compromised
BEAR THESIS:
- Yields keeps falling as weaker macro data show up
- Crack spreads lowering
- Israel vs. Hammas cease-fire achieved
- Russia hold its positions on Ukraine, Ukraine doesn't reply attacks
- Crude extraction and refining facilities not compromised