Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:ELV had a great earnings, beating on top and bottom line estimates and following through with a 10% dividend increase. This comes as NYSE:UNH and NYSE:HUM each disappoint and lower guidance. ELV has put in a strong consolidation after retracing from 2022 highs. Using a fib fan from the 2022 all time high to the April 2023 high, and another from the...

Ben_1148x2

If equities are preparing to take another leg up, AMEX:GGME looks like it has potential to participate. Especially if we get good insight into gaming an entertainment from MSFT and AMD this week. After a lengthy consolidation we see that it stalled exactly where we would expect it to: the 0.382 of the retrace from November 2021 high, and at the volume weighted...

Ben_1148x2

I've only recently looked at Justin Mamis sentiment cycle . I post and trade a lot of breakouts from descending angles, which is essentially looking for areas where the market is shifting from aversion to denial, and then I ride the wave of returning confidence. The subtle warning and the overt warning are great signals to take profit. We can see these on...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:PAYS has broken out of its prior consolidation, reclaimed its 200SMA, and has just filled the measured range for the high and tight flag that it formed between October and December. It had a similar expansion pattern in 2022. Using one Fibonacci fan from the low and support of 2022 and another from the 2023 high to the October breakout give us a very...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:UNH dropped after reducing guidance in their earnings release, and then gapped down again today when NYSE:HUM missed estimates. These two stocks frequently respond to one another, creating fantastic trading opportunities if you have both on your watch list. Todays candle is doji with relatively high volume, which is a decent reversal signal. Prior to...

Ben_1148x2

AMEX:TMV broke out of a downtrend at the end of 2023 and gapped up with todays open. I'm playing this shift in momentum tightly. I'm entering here and planning to take profit at 36.77, which aligns to the volume weighted average price anchored to 5/19/23 (entering consolidation prior to July 2023 breakout) and 10/19/23 (last strong buying day prior to 2023 peak)....

Ben_1148x2

CRYPTO:LTCUSD LTC looks like another breakout from a basing pattern. Note that the measured ranges were hit from the prior breakout from the descending trend line.

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:JTOUSDT with an excellent breakout this week. Thanks to @bluefox1976 for pointing this one out a few weeks ago. Like a lot of new alts, JTO spiked after listing and then went into a decline followed by a consolidation. We took a fib time zone from the 12/14/23 high to the 12/18 low and price pivots have aligned nicely. A small base formed between 1/3 and...

Ben_1148x2

CRYPTO:BTCUSD cycle tops have had greater alignment to peaks in China’s 10 year rate, and lows have had greater alignment to the level of global net liquidity. Relative to extremes at those data points, halvings almost appear neutral. This leads me to be cautious of too much market optimism generated for a combination of spot ETF approval and the upcoming...

Ben_1148x2

Unless we see NYSE:XOM make a strong move above 105, this looks like the end of wave 4. We would expect a 5th wave to take us below the December low.

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:LOW current movement is similar to what we see across the consumer discretionary sector. It has also been consolidating in a long term symmetrical triangle. There are three supporting areas that I've kept an eye on: The 12/13/23 gap (215). Price fell through this level yesterday. The variable weighted average price anchored to the 11/2/23 breakout...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:MRK has shown a strong breakout. We see a steady secondary downtrend from May 2023 to early December. Anchoring a VWAP to the May 202 high and another to the October low give us a clear indication of support and resistance. I missed the breakout and retest in early December, as well as the break above the VWAP from the prior high. Taking a fib retrace from...

Ben_1148x2

The alt-coin market is hot right now. This could continue alongside anticipation of halving, possibly driven by those feeling priced out of BTC and seeking faster returns. Or we could see alts cool down as speculators rotate back to BTC. TOTAL3 is the total market cap of alt-coins (cryptocurrency less BTC and ETH), representing the most speculative opportunities...

Ben_1148x2

I like the look of the breakout from $NYSE:MOS. Inverse head and shoulders, breaking above a descending wedge, momentum building, and multiple closes above the VWAP anchored to the August high.

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

Be cautious buying this uptrend, and be especially cautious trying to catch the bottom of a mediocre company in a downtrend. I don't view the current environment to be fully risk off or fully risk on, but showing signs of the last leg of the business cycle. My preference is to target 20-30% cash and focus on companies with a high sharpe ratio, and lower ...

Ben_1148x2

State of the market and key past trends Earlier this year I wrote this piece on possible outcomes for monetary policy and what to look for next in the market, and much of this held true. Here is what we can observe in a current update: Local bottoms in risk assets continue to coincide with local bottoms in global net liquidity. Some debate whether central...

Ben_1148x2

I recently posted about the potential to take advantage of seasonal weakness for $NASDAQ:COST. I'm embarrassed to say that I had lost track of them being overdue to offer a special dividend. Since 2015 they have offered a special dividend every 2-3 years. Let's look at how the special dividend announcements have influenced sentiment and interacted with seasonal...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:COP loves breaking out of descending secondary trends and filling proportional ranges. If history repeats, this sets us up for a move to 124-129. Note that we've hit the volume weighted average price anchored to the prior high. This might act as resistance and trigger a retest of the breakout. This happens ~70% of the time with breakouts from descending...